Ransome

Microsoft: Whistling in the Dark

I would have liked to see numbers. Does MS loss equal Apple's gain? So there is more to the story. I think there are two things going on.

People don't care to change OS once something works, like XP. People are fed up with radically changing UI, they just want to use the tool to get the job done. Computers are no longer novel or an end in themselves. In the long run, most people just want their car to start every morning.

Hardware continues to become cheaper and as a result, people buy more of it. Computers are becoming the new multi-purpose calculators. Thirty-five years ago, a simple calculator cost the same as a netbook today. Paying $500 a pop for software for each unit is no longer viable. There is a lot of downward pressure on MS to reduce prices and to produce better quality outcomes with less frequent releases. MS has passed peak oil. They will downsize to meet demand, rather lack of demand. Cloud computing, if it takes off, will require the giving away of software and selling space. MS is now going give away Office online to see if it can become an ASP with a monthly fee. No one is going to pay a fee for each owned unit so there will be another revenue hit. There is nothing that Balmer can do, nor can anyone else.