Shiv139

It's Time For a U.S. Sovereign Investment Fund

I do not believe a US Sovereign Investment Fund is the answer; a nation in surplus I can understand; a nation in deficit; maybe not.

I can see next steps being required as including:

1. An RTC type vehicle to hold and sell assets of failed banks.
2. Nationalization as in the case of FNM/FRE/AIG.
3. Combination to create a stronger entity post acquisition like BAC/MER.
4. Active marketing of new capital requirements to SWF’s and nations with budget surplus.

Everyone has a responsibility to act; this crisis may have started out in the US, but its impact has and will continue to be felt the world over. How bad it gets depends on how early and how actively the world engages in seeking a solution.

Escalating deficits from the rescue packages will cause an elevation of inflation; this will hurt the world. In my view nations which can look at risk from a multi-decade perspective will need to engage in providing a solution.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Like the UK FSA, early Friday morning the SEC too has banned short selling for financial services. While stocks can still be shorted; naked short selling is history for now. You can see the full text of the SEC orders at www.sec.gov/news/press....

A significant rally is likely to develop in companies where naked shorts have been high. These would include GS, MS, C to name a few. The financial services sector has a positive catalyst in terms of the additional liquidity provided to the market and initial steps taken to address the solvency issues causing great concern on capital markets. It would take significant foolish guts to short the sector. So for this sector expect a strong rally on account of short covering.

Outside financial services, we can expect to see Energy and Metals recover too; though the exuberance might be muted compared with financial services. Technology is another area where naked shorts have built up since Dell cited concerns on growth. NOTE THAT THE BAN IS ONLY ON FINANCIAL SERVICES, BUT I EXPECT SYMPATHY TRADING IN OTHER SECTORS.

Since the short covering adjustment will be a one time event, it will make sense to adopt a trading position - i.e. use the rally to exit in a few weeks. For financial services, the risks to short term positions, long term positions and secular positions, while considerably reduced, remain elevated. The healing process has begun and much will happen between now and the end game; this will allow building value positions with lower levels of risk (because of better visibility).

Resolution Meeting - Fast Money Recap (9/18/08)

Will more steps be needed beyond the US Congress plans for a financial fix?

A purchase of paper from solvent entities with a view to an eventual sale back to the market through an auction process is good. Read more about the Congress plans here.

An available buyer will mean (a) improved liquidity (b) higher confidence (c) arrest in accelerating mark to market losses.

This is a good first step because it will ebb the flow of insolvencies caused by liquidity & confidence crisis. One can assume that following an acquisition of distressed debt, the asset acquired will be "off market" until stability returns, otherwise it defeats the purpose. An incidental side benefit will be profitable dispositions which will significantly reduce budget deficits.

Still, this does not entirely address the solvency issue. The risk of disorderly unwinding of insolvents remains high. To prevent a disorderly unwinding it is possible that additional steps might be required. These could include:

1. An RTC type vehicle to hold and sell assets of failed banks.
2. Nationalization as in the case of SWF's.
3. Combination to create a stronger entity post acquisition.
4. Active marketing of new capital requirements to SWF's and nations with budget surplus.

Everyone has a responsibility to act; this crisis may have started out in the US, but its impact has and will continue to be felt the world over. How bad it gets depends on how early and how actively the world engages in seeking a solution.

Escalating deficits from the rescue packages will cause an elevation of inflation; this will hurt the world. In my view nations which can look at risk from a multi-decade perspective will need to engage in providing a solution.

Daily Market Outlook: Early Indications Are for a Modest Rebound

With the risks to solvency remaining high availability of liquidity does not answer the problems. Banks/institutions have a trust issue - can they trust a counter parties with the potential solvency risks. Central banks cannot eliminate this risk.
This solvency risk is only going to reduce through confidence building measures. Confidence will return once the insolvents are out of the market and the remaining banks/institutions well capitalized. Capital is required and no Private Capital is forthcoming because the risk is too high. So governments (not central banks) step in.
I am surprised that the SWF's have not stepped up to the plate. These massive budget surplus nations should have a vested interest in restoring confidence. Without confidence, the $ paper they hold could be significantly impaired in value. If a deficit nation steps up, the action does not necessarily provide a solution as increasing deficits will prove to be inflationary (unless of course the confidence building measure is a success and allows a profitable exit which will reduce the deficit). Since leverage is the issue, I would be far happier seeing budget surplus SWF's take action.
Active steps are being taken to solve the solvency issues (AIG/FRE/FNM); even BAC acquiring MER is a net positive. And yes, even the bankruptcy of LEH is good news. All of these help bring closure to solvency issues. Since it is early in the days of addressing this solvency issue; expect continued fireworks; but the healing process has begun. This together with liquidity will restore the economy to health. But it will take time. Healing has just begun.