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  • Daily Market Outlook: Early Indications Are for a Modest Rebound [View article]
    With the risks to solvency remaining high availability of liquidity does not answer the problems. Banks/institutions have a trust issue - can they trust a counter parties with the potential solvency risks. Central banks cannot eliminate this risk.
    This solvency risk is only going to reduce through confidence building measures. Confidence will return once the insolvents are out of the market and the remaining banks/institutions well capitalized. Capital is required and no Private Capital is forthcoming because the risk is too high. So governments (not central banks) step in.
    I am surprised that the SWF's have not stepped up to the plate. These massive budget surplus nations should have a vested interest in restoring confidence. Without confidence, the $ paper they hold could be significantly impaired in value. If a deficit nation steps up, the action does not necessarily provide a solution as increasing deficits will prove to be inflationary (unless of course the confidence building measure is a success and allows a profitable exit which will reduce the deficit). Since leverage is the issue, I would be far happier seeing budget surplus SWF's take action.
    Active steps are being taken to solve the solvency issues (AIG/FRE/FNM); even BAC acquiring MER is a net positive. And yes, even the bankruptcy of LEH is good news. All of these help bring closure to solvency issues. Since it is early in the days of addressing this solvency issue; expect continued fireworks; but the healing process has begun. This together with liquidity will restore the economy to health. But it will take time. Healing has just begun.
    Sep 18 09:35 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
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