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What are the cyclical opportunities for out-performance? When will the out-performance from secular growth sectors re-commence?

This article looks at out-performance opportunities at a sector level. The aim is to identify where we are in the economic cycle and use history as a guide to seek out the coming sectors of out performance, within the present economic cycle.

The article also applies the sector rotation rationale applicable to an economic cycle to a multi-economic-cycle level; the aim being to identify the secular (16 year; roughly 3 economic cycles) trends. The intent is to identify sectors which are in secular bull formations and which will lead during the next cyclical bull.

Sam Stovall's vision on sectors is used in identifying the typical flow through sectors during the course of an economic cycle.

The conclusions are - out-performance opportunities are in financials & IT. Secular sector to lead the next cyclical bull will continue being Energy after a cyclical correction.