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Why I'm (Cautiously) Optimistic About the Future

Can't really call them Black Swans anymore... the Black Swan event at this point would be to avoid any more debt defaults. The Black Swan thread has already been pulled... time and illusions are all that are left.


On Nov 29 01:37 PM Donald Ingram wrote:

> Remember OBD? "Off Balance (sheet) Debt? The reported $59 billion
> is just the tip of the iceberg. More will show up out of the shadows
> and dark corners in the days and weeks to come.
> This is just the first of many "Black Swan" events to come, and this
> one is small in comparison to what Greece. Italy, Spain or the Baltic
> States have in store.
> Who knows what's next? Maybe something right out of left field that
> will blind side the financial sector?
> On Nov 29 12:00 PM yellowhoard wrote:

Why I'm (Cautiously) Optimistic About the Future

Cautious optimism for Mr. Mauldin is a matter of necessity... without it, he will lose his clients. Advisors are reflections of their constituency who vote yes with their dollars, and no with their feet. Most people will ride the slope of hope down, confusing it with a wall of worry that has long since fallen over. The masses are relentless in driving the talking points of any mass media ... as a financial advisor, subconsciously you are driven to provide them what they want to hear. The world is correcting 80 years of excess... that is something to prepare for in a pragmatic, cautiously optimistic survival sense. Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. No paid financial advisor, or one who needs you readership traffic, will tell you the uncut version of the world's financial/economic predicament. Mauldin does better than most, and I suggest that you read between the lines.

Look Who's Betting on Inflation

www.elliottwave.com/fr...

The herd is with the inflation call... look no further than market action. Don't pretend to be contrarian when the facts are otherwise. Inflation is the debtors dream... and we have a lot of debtors in this country. Do markets typically like to reward the crowd? No.

Head and Shoulders Rorshach Test

Elliott Wave. Learn what patterns are really saying. They are waves of pessimism and optimism... modeled patterns of herding behavior and form. Fundamentals are the "snake oil" of the financial industry and the financial alchemy of lying CEOs. Fibonacci and the markets reflection of man's growth in the world. Consider this a special moment to learn the truth... elliottwave.com. Catbox.

M3: The Money Supply Sure Doesn't Look Like Deflation

Thanks for saying what needed to be said. Most posts don't realize this very important point. To increase money supply, you need a willing lender and willing borrower. Currently, that is pretty much limited to the FED and the US Govt (unwilling taxpayers). Eventually, we will hit a limit on that by the rise in interest rates due to fear of default, not inflation. Deflation wins for now.


On May 02 12:46 PM donbob wrote:

> Looking at M1, M2, or M3 in isolation could be misleading. If you
> then look at the velocity of money in these categories and the money
> multiplier, they are falling off a cliff. The money is being pumped
> in, but going nowhere. This would indicate deflationary forces are
> still in effect with inflation to occur at some time much farther
> down the road.

Keynes vs. Von Mises

Nice article... refreshing and on point. Now, if we can can just get some of these honest and intellectually-rooted journalists into MSM... nevermind, journalists have to "sell out" like politicians to write in MSM. Sad time in our nation's history.

Serial Bubbles: Now It's Bonds

The next bubble after bonds will be Gold? A "Gold bubble" is better stated as the "collapse of fiat currencies"... in other words, the ultimate bubble to collapse and drive us to the worst kind of deflation is the bursting of the fiat money bubble. Everything will grind to a halt because there will be no consistent means of exchange among the masses. Hopefully, this will not occur in our lifetime, but the FED seems to be accelerating us to that end.