Biopharma Catalyst Trades To Watch For This Week [View article]
Well Scott, it looks like I was correct. ETRM reported about 25% EWL in the Tx group and about 17% EWL in the control group. By you math ((25-17)/25) = 32%, ETRM would easily beat the 10% delta between groups. Unfortunately, as reported by ETRM, the delta was 8%, below the 10% required to meet the endpoint. Maybe you should do some research on the FDA sight instead of relying on your "Clinical Research Doctor buddy." A little work goes a long way.
Biopharma Catalyst Trades To Watch For This Week [View article]
Energy-Trader:
You have understated it profoundly. It is either sloppy or in the bag for these stocks. The errors are too great to list, but here are a couple:
1. Author states that ETRM "...easily surpass the endpoint..." He is comparing 25% EWL in the Tx Group vs. 17% EWL in the Control group. That is an 8% EWL difference between groups; far short of the 10% EWL required. He erroneously took the 8% and divided it by the 25%. The lack of understanding of clinical trial endpoints is staggering.
2. Author states that 25% EWL blows away Qsemia and Belviq. With the slightest of research he would know that drugs report their weight loss in TOTAL weight and not EXCESS Weight (EWL). Making some assumptions about the average BMI in the trial, you will see that 25% EWL is most likely quite inferior to 10% TOTAL Weight Loss.
This is the state of reporting...frightening and sad.
Royal Bank Of Scotland Preferred Stock Update And Trade Ideas [View article]
Mike, Another great piece. Thanks for the diligence. I am curious to hear your response to drib1364. Another topic on which I would like to get your perspective is the rumor that the government is considering buying out the small piece of RBS that they do not already own. If the occurs, what is the impact on the Preferreds (we can probably figure the impact on the Common)? Are they required to assume the debt? If there a chance they will delist the Preferreds from the US market (like Allianz did with their Preferreds)? Thanks in advance for your reply.
Royal Bank Of Scotland - Shares Are Dead Money, Stick With The Preferred [View article]
Mr. Terry:
Thank you for your continued coverage of RBS. Do you think that there is a possibility that RBS will offer to convert RBS preferreds for common stock (at a premium over the current trading price) to further improve their Tier 1 capital position (like BAC and C did at the height of US financial crisis)? Not only would it improve the Tier 1 ratio, but it would relieve RBS of the chore of paying a rather large dividend every quarter. BAC offered this type of swap at $25 par (I believe, but I could be wrong), which resulted in a nice capital gain on conversion. Citi was less generous, but still offered a healthy premium over the then current price. If this swap was offered would you then recommend owning the common, even if it just for a brief period of time, to take advantage of the capital gain (assuming that RBS would need to offer a significant premium to get people to pull the trigger)? Thank you in advance for your reply.
Royal Bank Of Scotland: Increased Talk Of Preferred Dividends [View article]
Mr. Terry, excellent reporting. There is very little information on this issue. Thank you. Given that RBS has to pay preferred dividends before it pays common dividends AND the preferreds RBS acquired through ABN are suspended until April 2013, can RBS pay the common dividend before April 2013 if it only satisfies the dividend payments related to the original RBS preferreds and not the acquired ABN preferreds?
Biopharma Catalyst Trades To Watch For This Week [View article]
Biopharma Catalyst Trades To Watch For This Week [View article]
You have understated it profoundly. It is either sloppy or in the bag for these stocks. The errors are too great to list, but here are a couple:
1. Author states that ETRM "...easily surpass the endpoint..." He is comparing 25% EWL in the Tx Group vs. 17% EWL in the Control group. That is an 8% EWL difference between groups; far short of the 10% EWL required. He erroneously took the 8% and divided it by the 25%. The lack of understanding of clinical trial endpoints is staggering.
2. Author states that 25% EWL blows away Qsemia and Belviq. With the slightest of research he would know that drugs report their weight loss in TOTAL weight and not EXCESS Weight (EWL). Making some assumptions about the average BMI in the trial, you will see that 25% EWL is most likely quite inferior to 10% TOTAL Weight Loss.
This is the state of reporting...frightening and sad.
Royal Bank Of Scotland Preferred Stock Update And Trade Ideas [View article]
Another great piece. Thanks for the diligence. I am curious to hear your response to drib1364. Another topic on which I would like to get your perspective is the rumor that the government is considering buying out the small piece of RBS that they do not already own. If the occurs, what is the impact on the Preferreds (we can probably figure the impact on the Common)? Are they required to assume the debt? If there a chance they will delist the Preferreds from the US market (like Allianz did with their Preferreds)? Thanks in advance for your reply.
Very best regards
Royal Bank Of Scotland - Shares Are Dead Money, Stick With The Preferred [View article]
Thank you for your continued coverage of RBS. Do you think that there is a possibility that RBS will offer to convert RBS preferreds for common stock (at a premium over the current trading price) to further improve their Tier 1 capital position (like BAC and C did at the height of US financial crisis)? Not only would it improve the Tier 1 ratio, but it would relieve RBS of the chore of paying a rather large dividend every quarter. BAC offered this type of swap at $25 par (I believe, but I could be wrong), which resulted in a nice capital gain on conversion. Citi was less generous, but still offered a healthy premium over the then current price. If this swap was offered would you then recommend owning the common, even if it just for a brief period of time, to take advantage of the capital gain (assuming that RBS would need to offer a significant premium to get people to pull the trigger)? Thank you in advance for your reply.
RBS Watcher
Royal Bank Of Scotland: Increased Talk Of Preferred Dividends [View article]