I have been an individual investor for 25 years and have always invested in individual securities, whether I knew exactly what I was doing or not. I have also worked in Risk Management at a couple of Fortune 100 banks over the last 15 years, and have a PhD in Economics an MBA in Finance. I believe the market is for the most part quite efficient, but with patience, and every so often, it's possible to buy a stock in a company with decent prospects when there has been a lull in interest and popularity.
Wall Street Breakfast, Seeking Alpha's flagship daily business news summary, is a one-page summary that gives you a rapid overview of the day's key financial news. It's designed for easy readability on the site or by email (including on mobile devices), and is published before 7:00 AM ET every market day.
Wall Street Breakfast readership of over 900,000 includes many from the investment-banking and fund-management industries.
Sign up here to receive the Wall Street Breakfast in your inbox every business day: http://seekingalpha.com/account/email_preferences
I am the founder and director of three companies: Euro Pacific Capital (www.europac.net), a full service, registered broker-dealer and RIA which specializes in foreign securities; Euro Pacific Precious Metals (www.europacmetals.com), a gold & silver coin and bullion dealer; and Euro Pacific Asset Management (www.europacificfunds.com), a fund management company that is building a family of mutual funds based on my economic philosophy.
I am most well-known for accurately and publicly predicting the collapse of the housing and credit markets, the subprime crisis, and the increasing price of gold relative to the US dollar, resulting in the viral YouTube video "Peter Schiff Was Right."
I fly around the country and the world speaking to diverse groups, from academic conferences to Tea Party rallies. I have also appeared regularly on cable news stations since the mid-2000s trying to warn people of the impending economic collapse brought on by destructive fiscal and economic policy in Washington.
To that end, I published my first book, "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse," in early 2007, predicting the 2008 economic crisis while the mainstream commentators were saying it was impossible. Then, at the height of the crisis, I released "The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets," in which I showed readers how to help protect their finances in turbulent times. I've written updated versions of both Crash Proof and The Little Book since then, talking about how my predictions fared and why the worst of the crash is still ahead of us. I also wrote a book with my brother based on a popular comic book my dad wrote in the '70s. "How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes" is an illustrated fable that starts with three guys on an island and uses allegory to explain exactly how we got into our current mess.
In the 2010 election season, I ran for the US Senate seat of retiring Senator Chris Dodd in my home state of Connecticut in order to bring attention to the mounting problems in this country. While I did not win the seat, my message of fiscal and monetary sanity was brought to a new audience of voters and political leaders.
I've had a regular video blog on YouTube since 2009, called The Schiff Report (www.youtube.com/user/SchiffReport) and, after giving up my long-running Wall Street Unspun podcast, I am now the host of a nightly radio show called The Peter Schiff Show (www.schiffradio.com).
David Stockman is the ultimate Washington insider turned iconoclast. He began his career in Washington as a young man and quickly rose through the ranks of the Republican Party to become the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan. After leaving the White House, Stockman had a 20-year career on Wall Street.
At the podium, Stockman’s expertise and experience cannot be matched, and he has a reputation for zesty financial straight talk. Defying right- and left-wing boxes, his latest book catalogues both the corrupters and defenders of sound money, fiscal rectitude, and free markets. Stockman discusses the forces that have left the public sector teetering on the edge of political dysfunction and fiscal collapse and have caused America’s financial system to morph into an unstable, bubble-prone gambling arena that undermines capitalist prosperity and showers speculators with vast windfall gains.
Stockman’s career in Washington began in 1970, when he served as a special assistant to U.S. Representative, John Anderson of Illinois. From 1972 to 1975, he was executive director of the U.S. House of Representatives Republican Conference. Stockman was elected as a Michigan Congressman in 1976 and held the position until his resignation in January 1981.
He then became Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan, serving from 1981 until August 1985. Stockman was the youngest cabinet member in the 20th century. Although only in his early 30s, Stockman became well known to the public during this time concerning the role of the federal government in American society.
After resigning from his position as Director of the OMB, Stockman wrote a best-selling book, The Triumph of Politics: Why the Reagan Revolution Failed (1986). The book was Stockman’s frontline report of the miscalculations, manipulations, and political intrigues that led to the failure of the Reagan Revolution. A major publishing event and New York Times bestseller in its day, The Triumph of Politics is still startlingly relevant to the conduct of Washington politics today.
After leaving government, Stockman joined Wall Street investment bank Salomon Bros. He later became one of the original partners at New York-based private equity firm, The Blackstone Group. Stockman left Blackstone in 1999 to start his own private equity fund based in Greenwich, Connecticut.
In his newest New York Times best-seller, The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America (2013), Stockman lays out how the U.S. has devolved from a free market economy into one fatally deformed by Washington’s endless fiscal largesse, K-street lobbies and Fed sponsored bailouts and printing press money.
Stockman was born in Ft. Hood, Texas. He received his B.A. from Michigan State University and pursued graduate studies at Harvard Divinity School.
He lives in Greenwich, Connecticut, with his wife Jennifer Blei Stockman. They have two daughters, Rachel and Victoria.
Twitter: @IbexInvestor; (https://twitter.com/IbexInvestor)
Value investing partnership/hedge fund with a focus on value investing and special situations. The portfolio is very focused, and I typically hold between 20-25 individual long positions in common stocks.
I received my MBA in analytic finance and economics from the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business in March of 2013, where I learned a significant amount about investing. Over the course of my life I've learned immeasurably more from a class that occurs one Saturday every year in Omaha, Nebraska. The class is virtually free of charge, and taught by two elderly men named Warren and Charlie. They teach me more about investing, business and life in 8 hours every year than a lifetime of MBA classes could, and I'm eternally grateful to them. I am also a licensed certified public accountant (CPA) in the state of Illinois.
I spend most of my time reading through annual reports looking for a small-cap stock to feature in my monthly edition of "The Conservative Investor Digest." That is where you can find my best work, and that is where I focus my research. You can become a subscriber here: https://gumroad.com/l/HmqJx
I specialize in rooting out corporate fraud and financial shenanigans in small and micro cap stocks. I am here to bring true institutional quality research on both longs and shorts to the seekingalpha community. If you have any particular company or stock you believe is committing fraud or doing anything illegal and would like to share this information with us we can assure your identity will always be kept 100% anonymous. We will respect your privacy without question and treat your sensitive information with the proper respect.
My name is Colin Lloyd. I have been following the ebb and flow of financial markets for more than 30 years. I have worked for brokers and asset managers in commodities, money markets, capital markets, equities and foreign exchange.
My interests include, but are not confined too, geopolitics, central banking, energy policy, regulatory change, demographics, technology and capital flows.
About this blog
I started writing this blog to provide longer term macroeconomic commentary and guidance for financial market investors. I hope it will provide some new insights and provoke debate.
Willem Middelkoop (1962) author of The Big Reset, published in three languages English, Chinese and Dutch. He is founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund. In the Netherlands he is best known for his work as a business commentator for the RTL Z business channel between 2001 and 2008. He also founded Amsterdamgold.com, a web store for gold and silver bullion, in 2008. The webshop reached total sales of E120 mln in 2011, the year it was sold to a Dutch listed company. In his first book, in 2007, he warned of a possible crash of the global financial system, which by the end of 2008 was virtually a fact. The book is currently in its seventeenth print and over 50,000 copies have been sold. In total he sold over 100,000 books.
Mr. Hui has been involved in the equity markets since 1980, both on the buy side and the sell side. He is a CFA Charterholder, and has presented numerous papers to quantitative discussion groups (Sample topics include: How Global are Resource Sectors).
Donald R. van Deventer founded the Kamakura Corporation in April, 1990 and is currently Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Dr. van Deventer's emphasis at Kamakura Corporation is enterprise wide risk management and modern credit risk technology. The second edition of his newest book, Advanced Financial Risk Management (with Kenji Imai and Mark Mesler) was published in 2013 by John Wiley & Sons. In 2003 Dr. van Deventer co-authored Credit Risk Models and the Basel Accords with Kenji Imai. His second book, also with Kenji Imai, is Financial Risk Analytics: A Term Structure Model Approach for Banking, Insurance, and Investment Management published by Irwin in 1996. Dr. van Deventer's first book Financial Risk Management in Banking (with Dr. Dennis Uyemura, Probus Publishing, 1993) is one of the best known books in its field. He has served on the editorial board of the Journal of Credit Risk since 2005. Dr. van Deventer's primary financial consulting and research interests involve the practical application of leading edge financial theory to solve critical financial risk management problems. Dr. van Deventer has been involved in financial advisory assignments including both risk management and mergers and acquisitions. He has worked on assignments for the municipalities affected in the Orange County bankruptcy, in a major derivatives dispute between JPMorgan and a Korean securities firm, for Bank Negara Malaysia, the Department of the Treasury of the United States, governments of three of the OECD countries and many of the world’s largest financial institutions. Prior to founding Kamakura Corporation, Dr. van Deventer was senior vice president in the investment banking department of Lehman Brothers (then Shearson Lehman Hutton) from 1987 to 1990. During that time, he was responsible for 27 major client relationships including Sony, Canon, Fujitsu, NTT, Tokyo Electric Power Co., and most of Japan's leading banks. Dr. van Deventer completed three of the first four mergers and acquisitions assignments for a Japanese client by Lehman Brothers and the first domestic Japanese corporate straight bond underwriting by the firm. From 1982 to 1987, Dr. van Deventer was the treasurer for First Interstate Bancorp in Los Angeles. In this capacity he was responsible for all bond financing requirements, the company’s commercial paper program, and a multi-billion dollar derivatives hedging program for the company. During this time, First Interstate became the first issuer of medium term notes in the Euro market and first issuer of bank medium term notes. Dr. van Deventer also served as senior planning officer for acquisitions, new ventures and corporate strategy, participating in the 1986 attempted take-over of BankAmerica Corporation. Dr. van Deventer was a Vice President in the risk management department of Security Pacific National Bank from 1977 to 1982, where he initiated the duration-based futures hedging program for the bank. Dr. van Deventer holds a Ph.D. in Business Economics, a joint degree of the Harvard University Department of Economics and the Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration. He was appointed to the Harvard University Graduate School Alumni Association Council in 1999 and has now completed more than a decade of service on the Council. Dr. van Deventer served as Chairman of the Council for four years from 2012 to 2016. From 2005 through 2009, he served as one of two appointed directors of the Harvard Alumni Association representing the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. Dr. van Deventer was named to the CFA Hawaii Advisory Board in 2010. Dr. van Deventer was also named to the Advisory Board of the Pacific Asian Center for Entrepreneurship and E-Business at the University of Hawaii Shidler College of Business in 2012. He served as a director of the Hawaii Bicycling League from 2005 to 2014. Dr. van Deventer also holds a degree in mathematics and economics from Occidental College, where he graduated second in his class, summa cum laude, and Phi Beta Kappa. Dr. van Deventer speaks Japanese and English.
I'm an asset manager at Hebba Alternative Investments with a focus on real assets. In my articles I like to focus on events that affect the macro environment for assets (especially gold and silver), and also introduce readers to different metrics that I believe are under-utilized when assessing investments.
On a more personal note, I'm a firm believer that there can be honesty, morality, and integrity in finance (though its rare) and i'd like to believe that I stick to those principles. Thus I never "pump and dump" stocks, I always list the securities we own, and I take it very seriously when I recommend a company - I do not want to see any investors/readers lose money because of my recommendations.
I'm not always right with recommendations, but investors and readers can know that I always tell the truth (there is no deception) and I eat my own cooking as recommendations are either always owned OR the reason I dont own them is given (usually related to restrictions on stocks I can buy).
Advising people in financial matters is a serious issue and integrity is much more important than money to me, but I do believe both can co-exist. You live with money, but after your death you only have your morality and integrity and thus i've made my choice between the two. A bit philosophical for a bio, but I dont think there's a better way to give investors my background than that.
We offer investors a free weekly email list detailing gold, silver, and general economic markets which you can sign up for at: http://www.communitysynergy.com/subscribe/hebbainvestments_subscribe.html
Bill Gross, called "the nation's most prominent bond investor" by the New York Times, is managing director of Pacific Investment Management (or PIMCO) and manages its Total Return fund, the world's largest bond fund and fifth largest mutual fund, and several smaller funds. He publishes a monthly letter discussing the bond market, and is the author of two books: Everything You've Heard About Investing Is Wrong! (http://tinyurl.com/nfc4x) and Bill Gross on Investing (http://tinyurl.com/nhmnj9).
Note: Mr. Gross is not an active contributor to Seeking Alpha; rather, SA editors excerpt regularly from Mr. Gross's public commentary. Visit PIMCO (http://www.pimco.com/)
Research investment analyst for Chicago consulting firm until 2009. In this role I was the lead analyst on large 401k plans, pensions and endowments totaling over $20 billion in assets. I also headed analyst research on fixed income and hedge fund of funds portfolios. Today, I focus my research on finding value stocks with sound fundamentals and healthy cash flow. I concentrate my personal portfolio on quality dividend growth stocks and keep an active watch list of over 150 stocks to add on pull backs or at an attractive valuation.
I exited the finance industry in 2010 to follow my dream of becoming a firefighter. I now live and work in Texas. I consider myself a value investor and tend to stay away from speculation stocks.
Full-time investor. Formerly buy-side credit analyst (2yrs) covering Japanese + Asian companies. Before that, I was a cross asset derivatives salesperson at a large bulge-bracket firm, based in Tokyo (4yrs). I use Seeking Alpha to clarify and synthesize my investment thought process and to elicit feedback on my theses; additionally I like to connect with other investors and swap ideas.
You can read my finance-related blog at rapercapital.com (less organized than Seeking Alpha writeups, more my random musings on various finance-related topics).
Going forward I will try to tweet my investment-related thoughts/updates to articles/etc. You can follow me on Twitter, my handle is @puppyeh1
Always looking for new ideas across the board. Happy to exchange ideas/share thoughts/swap notes, feel free to private message me. I currently live in Singapore.
Avery B. Goodman is a licensed attorney concentrating in securities law related cases. He holds a B.A. from Emory University, where he concentrated on history and economics. He also holds a Juris Doctorate degree from the University of California at Los Angeles Law School and is a member of the Bar, licensed to practice law in several jurisdictions.
Mr. Goodman serves on the roster of neutral arbitrators of the National Futures Association (NFA) and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA). His career has consisted not only of prosecuting cases on behalf of clients, but also in sitting in judgment on the cases involving others, and making important decisions on intra-industry and customer disputes.
An independent investor for decades, Mr. Goodman has observed that markets are being subjected to frighteningly high levels of disinformation. Investors desperately need to hear logic, reason and common sense. For that reason, he is now sharing thoughts with the community.
Sy Harding founded Asset Management Research Corporation in 1988 for the purpose of providing stock market and economic research to institutions and serious investors. Harding’s engineering background, coupled with his experience in operating high-tech businesses through numerous economic cycles, made it natural that the research involves technical analysis and charting, as well as analysis of the economic fundamentals that affect markets and individual stocks.
The firm publishes its research on its website at www.StreetSmartReport.com.
Harding is frequently ranked highly in the ‘Top Ten Market Timers in the U.S.’, and is quoted frequently in the financial media.
He wrote the timely 1999 book Riding the Bear – How to Prosper in the Coming Bear Market, which accurately predicted the 2000-2002 bear market. It also introduced Sy’s remarkable Seasonal Timing Strategy, which more than doubled the performance of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in the nine years since, without a single down year even in the serious 2000-2002 bear market.
He has a new book out ‘How to Beat the Market the Easy Way’, which reveals several new seasonal timing strategies, from short-term to long-term, which have a history of out-performing the market, while exposing investors to less than 50% of market risk.
Derek Hamill completed his Masters of Financial Analysis and Professional Accounting at La Trobe University, a leading Australian academic institution, and holds a bachelors’ degree in economics from the University of Calgary. Between degrees, Derek worked for several years as an Investment Executive for ScotiaMcLeod – a leading Canadian wealth management firm. Such a position required the completion of a number of courses from the Canadian Securities Institute, and formal licensing and registration with the IDA (Investment Dealers Association).
Derek, as Research and Communications for Zimtu Capital, provides long-term outlooks for various commodities and updates on key internal portfolio holdings.
Brad Lamensdorf, a seasoned money manager and market strategist, is the editor of The Lamensdorf Market Timing Report, a newsletter designed to help investors improve performance via market timing by assessing the environment of the stock market using a variety of technical, fundamental and sentiment-oriented tools from powerful independent research firms. Many investors mechanically enter and depart the market without a true “game plan.” Studies have shown that retail investors, in particular, are very poor market timers, tending to invest at or near market peaks and sell at or near market lows. The newsletter is designed to provide risk parameters for both professional and retail investors around the short-term stock market environment, giving subscribers better insight about when to allocate assets into or out of the equity markets.
Lamensdorf, a frequent guest commentator and analyst on major business networks including CNBC, CNN and Fox Business News, also serves as a Portfolio Manager and Principal of Ranger Alternative Management LP, a sub-advisor to the Advisor Shares Ranger Equity Bear Exchange Traded Fund (NYSE: HDGE). In this role, he conducts top-down technical evaluations of broader market liquidity, sentiment and breadth to help identify short and intermediate-term market trends, manage exposure and mitigate risk. HDGE was launched in 2011 and is the first and sole actively managed, short-only ETF in existence.
Lamensdorf, also has managed investment portfolios for the Hughes family and acted as principal of Tarpon Partners, managing a long/short fund that was up more than 150% gross over six years. Earlier in his career, he was as an equity trader/market strategist for Taylor and Company, the Bass brothers’ trading arm, co-managing a short-only strategy in a derivative format with notional exposure. He also served as the in-house market timing strategist for the entire internal and external network of Bass managers.
My background is in governance, valuation, and accounting.
I try to look at stocks as the sum of contractual rights provided by domicile and certificate of incorporation, and am always cautious about the potential for management or controller overreach.
I also spend a lot of time thinking about the limitations of accounting in presenting reality. I'm especially interested in the application of GAAP to make a company a more or less attractive prospect for investment than it actually is.
I'm primarily interested in long-only equities. I try to avoid announced M&A as I no longer like the risk distributions, but M&A will occasionally find me, when a security I own is involved in a control transaction.
I've been a securities analyst, both in and out of large institutions, for a number of years and I hope to continue to do this for the rest of my lifetime.
Founder of the school of Nouveau Shamanic Security Analysis (NSSA).
"He is no longer an analyst"
--- Sean Penn, 1999
"For he is the Kwisatz Haderach"
-- Alia Atreides, Dune, 1985
"He may have been asleep, but that was before you dropped a f*cking plane on his head and woke him up."
--Didi Giancano, Heaven's Prisoners, 1996
Owen Williams, CFA, DBA, is an equity fund manager in Geneva, Switzerland and a visiting professor at the Skema Business School, Paris, France. Dr. Williams has worked 16 years in the industry as both a bond/economics strategist with a top, independent research boutique and as a long-only macro equity fund manager. He has a Masters degree in international business from the Moore School of Business (Univ. of South Carolina) and a doctorate in finance from the Grenoble Ecole de Management.
Williams Market Analytics, LLC is a quantitative research boutique offering insightful, actionable analysis of financial markets. The firms also runs a systematic allocation strategy using Dr. Williams' quantitative models. The strategy portfolio can be accessed by both individual investors and RIAs in the U.S. and Europe. The strategy description and 5-year performance record can be found at:
I'm currently working as a Financial Analyst and want to pass on some of my thoughts regarding the financial markets. I have an interest in history, banking, NCAA football, and geopolitics. I'm a huge fan of Seeking Alpha and I hope to connect with authors and commenters that I admire.
I plan to write about some large cap companies and the subsidiaries that are frequently ignored by Wall Street. My first stab at this should include a foray into North American energy.
I have about 15 years of investing experience, and I began following the bubble stocks during the late 90's (while I was still in high school). I still remember seeing Cisco with a $500 billion market cap. I held it and watched it race lower.
These experiences led me to focus on stocks which I could "understand." For anyone interested in successful investing, this requires continuous learning. Please reach out to me via comments for future article ideas.
Cited by Barron's as one of the top financial websites to visit on the weekend, Financial Sense (www.financialsense.com) provides educational resources to the broad public audience through a daily podcast, editorials, current news and resource links on salient financial market issues. Begun in 1985 as a local talk radio program, Financial Sense Newshour (www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour) is a weekly webcast with host Jim Puplava and top financial thinkers. Writing staff of Financial Sense includes: Jim Puplava, Chris Puplava, Ryan Puplava, and Cris Sheridan.
Steven Hansen is an international business and industrial consultant specializing in turning around troubled business units; consults to governments to optimize process flows; and provides economic indicator analysis based on unadjusted data and process limitations.
Dr. Jacques Saint-Pierre was full professor of finance at Laval University (founded in 1852) until his retirement in 2010, where he has taught finance at the bachelor, MBA and Ph.D. levels during 40 years. He is now adjunct professor at the same university and board adviser. He has been during his long career, among other things, securities regulator, business valuator, securities analyst, and court financial expert. He has always been a strong proponent of the value approach (value based management, and value investing) well before it became so popular. Some of his academic writings on the subject can be read on the Social Science Research Network (SSRN) at http://ssrn.com/author=12155 where his author rank is in the first 5th percentile out of more than 280 000 authors.
Value Digger holds MSc. in Electrical Engineering, speaks four languages (English, French, Greek, German) and has lived in the U.S. for many years. Also, he is a full-time investor and a freelance writer with one of the highest Followers per Article (F/A) rates in Seeking Alpha. His F/A rate in Seeking Alpha is above 30.
After creating "Nathan's Bulletin" (a subscription-based investment guide for investors who can't afford a financial advisor), Value Digger launched a subscription-based Premium Service in Seeking Alpha entitled "A Fundamental Investor's Stock Club" which includes an unparalleled, actively-managed and high-return Portfolio of unknown and/or underfollowed stocks. Regularly updated and detailed lists in his Premium Posts PROVE these high returns. For reference, when Value Digger was managing money in the early 2000s, his Portfolio's annual ROI consistently exceeded 50%. His Premium Research is based on a comprehensive review of company-specific factors, macro conditions, competitors and the industry trends.
When it comes to his publicly-available picks and his free Seeking Alpha articles, Value Digger is ranked in the TOP-50 with a success rate of over 80%, an average return per recommendation of over 30% and a 5-star rating according to TipRanks.com, which is the highest category quality ranking used to evaluate financial experts. TipRanks.com is a comprehensive investing tool that allows private investors and day traders to see the measured performance of anyone who publicly provides financial advice. TipRanks.com collects data, evaluates and ranks 9,000 financial experts worldwide.
After almost 30 years of investing experience in the international markets (U.S., Canada, Australia, Europe), Value Digger has formulated a deep understanding of valuation analysis and his investment philosophy is firmly grounded in Ben Graham-style value-oriented opportunities that often have an assymetric risk/reward profile. On that front, he has created a unique proprietary database with thousands of publicly-traded companies per sector, which helps him spot the bargains and the bubbles before many investors find them.
Harry Long is the inventor of Hedged Contango Capture and Hedged Convexity Capture and is the Managing Partner of ZOMMA, the world's most innovative strategy index creator.
Mr. Long is a globally recognized expert on the research and development of quantitative investment strategies. The ZOMMA IP portfolio of strategy indices is sought after by asset management firms, investment banks, hedge funds, principal trading organizations, index providers, ETP sponsors, and private equity firms to help them develop and deploy active manager-crushing quantitative investment strategies.
ZOMMA helps investors create long term value by replacing reckless emotional decision making with cutting-edge technology based upon objective evidence.
Mr. Long is a graduate of Rice University with a B.A. in Economics.
Note: Due to the sheer number of requests for bespoke quant strategies, research projects, and quant consulting services, we have instituted the following pricing for the non-exclusive licensing of our algorithms to institutions:
I. Exclusive commercial licenses for unique bespoke algorithms run six figures and up.
II. Non-exclusive AUM licensing fees for our strategy indices run 10 basis points and up for commercial licenses.
Please realize that we often get more than 3,000 e-mails per week. This means that we read everything that comes in, but we cannot respond to any email or message that does not include the sender's full name, phone number, request, and budget. Thank you for your understanding.
This Dubai-like pricing is necessary, because we can't freely give answers to tough problems which we have dedicated massive R&D capital to solving. World-class statistical talent is hugely expensive, valuable, and rare. Our clients recognize that outsourcing quant work to our firm and paying our fees represent a huge cost savings over hiring full time employees, and usually results in a far more profitable, turn-key solution.
I am a Certified Public Accountant (CPA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP) (currently do not have a private practice). I have also been a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) for 17 years (CFF as well). I am currently employed with a global accounting firm in the Northeast area (partner). I have a masters degree in accounting + legal studies. I have audit, tax, and consulting experience with entities in the following sectors: closed-end funds, energy, financials, healthcare, homebuilders, pharmaceuticals, private equity, REITs, and telecoms. I've also have experience with C-corps., estates, high net worth individuals, LLCs, LLPs, S-corps., and trusts. I am a casual individual investor. My investing fundamentals are based on both qualitative and quantitative information. By using my analytical skills, I create specific investing ideas/strategies. I am more of a longer-term investor as opposed to day-trading.
Previous Quarterly Projection Article’s Performance vs. Actual Results:
# of Projections Stated Within All Articles: 174
# of Projections PENDING: 0
# of Projections 100% Accurate or Within Range: 161
# of Projections Inaccurate or Outside of Range: 13
Projection “Within Range” Success Rate: 161 / 174 = 92.5%
Please see the list at the bottom of this profile for the details of my past projections.
Disclaimer: I cannot own and will not give an opinion on any investments my current employer has any direct or indirect professional services with (accounting, audit, tax, consulting, etc.). This mainly consists of various mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETF's). This includes all stocks held within these particular investment vehicles. This specified list is updated monthly. As such, most large-cap stocks are "off the table" regarding my articles. All accounting insight, analysis, and opinions stated within any articles I write (in regards to a specified stock) are entirely from my own personal research and analysis. I believe my articles are both informative and in some cases educational.
NOTE: A growing number of readers/investors, analysts, and representatives of firms have requested to be provided with my "spreadsheets/models" to help better understand certain companies/sectors. My researched data is several files of 100+ spreadsheets/models containing both stocks I write about on S.A. and stocks I choose to not write about on S.A. To reduce the repeated requests to provide such data, these spreadsheets/models are ALL linked together. As such, all current and future requests to "share" my data/models will be politely declined. Thanks for your understanding regarding this subject.
I appreciate my loyal readers and I’ll continue to try to provide high quality, in-depth articles.
NOTE: Below are the stocks I currently cover as of July 2016:
Stocks Covered In Great Detail (10 mREITs; 11 BDCs; 11 Other Sectors): ACAP (Proposed Spin-Off), ACAS, ACSF, AGNC, AINV, ANH, ARCC, ARR, CMO, CYS, FSAM, FSC, FSFR, GBDC, GOOG, GPRO, MAIN, MCC, MO, MTGE, NEWT, NLY, NVS, NYMT, ORC, PFAM (Proposed Spin-Off) PSEC, PM, PRIT (Proposed Spin-Off) PYLD (Proposed Spin-Off), SLRC TRP, and WMC.
Stocks Covered In Modest Detail (9 mREITs; 3 Other Sectors): AI, AMTG, BABA, EFC, IVR, MFA, MITT, NRZ (New), PHM, PMT, SLRC, TOL, TWO
Commonly Asked Questions:
Question 1): If you are only paid per article, why make your articles so long / detailed?
- I like to provide the “nuts and bolts” of a company. As such, I strive for my articles to have some sort of “hard to obtain” facts / figures. From this data, I like to fully discuss / analyze specific topics within a particular stock. This mainly consists of a quarterly projection article and a series of articles on a company’s dividend sustainability. In certain instances, I also write articles in regards to specific, material events that occur during a quarter.
- I believe a company’s quarterly results and upcoming dividend declarations are two of the most important topics readers are requesting information on. My analysis takes the “average” article several steps further to allow readers to have access to information that is rare to public viewership. In doing so, I believe my articles are both beneficial and educational for most readers.
Question 2): How come you only write 1-2 articles a week (would like to see more)?
- As stated in my profile above, I have a full-time professional career. I write / analyze stocks in my “free time”. To provide these types of high quality / in-depth articles, I can’t see writing more than 2 articles a week. I believe “quality” should always be a higher priority versus “quantity”.
- As many readers should know by now (if you’ve followed me for a while), I not here for the monetary rewards. If that was the case, I’d write 5+ weekly articles and provide little to no engagement in each article’s comment section. I believe the comments section is as important as the article themselves b/c readers have a wide range of questions in relation to each article or the sector in general.
Question 3): What do you personally gain from writing these articles?
- I am not here trying to promote a company, book, or website. There’s nothing wrong with that. However, that’s just not what I’m about. I’m here for the “average Joe”.
- When I decided to write these articles, I based it on the notion I am filling a “special niche” per se. Using skills that have been built up over my professional career, my articles usually provide unique information that most writers either a) don’t have the technical expertise to provide or b) don’t bother providing due to the time it takes to compile such data. As such, I believe the S.A. community benefits from my articles. I solely do this b/c it’s a passion of mine and I like helping readers have accurate, reliable data that is not readily available. Yes, I understand this may seem “hard to believe” in this day and age. However, I believe some of my more “seasoned” followers know this aspect of my generosity / personality. Also, in the past there were numerous misstated “facts / notions” in various articles I saw being written by the stocks I currently cover. Since I began to write my articles here, these misstatements / misnomers have decreased which is good for this forum.
Question 4): How come you do not write about more stocks?
- To give readers the level of detail that I provide in my articles, I amass large amounts of data every quarter (or even weekly). As a direct result, a large amount of time is consumed by obtaining / analyzing this data. This would only increase if I expanded my researched portfolio of stocks.
- If I expanded the stocks I research, it would most likely take away the quality of other articles I currently am writing about. Again, this gets back to the “quality vs. quantity” metric.
- There is a fairly large range of stocks / investment vehicles I cannot write about / provide an opinion on due to various conflicts of interests (regarding my professional career). This is a topic I take VERY seriously. As such, I take all necessary precautions to avoid any remote possibility of a conflict of interest occurring.
Detailed Past Projection List:
NAV as of 3/31/2014: $0.01 per share variance; within range ($10.67 projected vs. $10.68 actual)
NAV as of 6/30/2014: $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($10.56 projected vs. $10.56 actual)
NAV as of 9/30/2014: $0.01 per share variance; within range ($10.48 projected vs. $10.47 actual)
NAV as of 12/31/2014: $0.01 per share variance; within range ($10.34 projected vs. $10.35 actual)
NAV as of 3/31/2015: $0.03 per share variance; within range ($10.27 projected vs. $10.30 actual)
NAV as of 6/30/2015: $0.06 per share variance; within range ($10.25 projected vs. $10.31 actual)
NAV as of 9/30/2015: $0.17 per share variance; within range but at the higher end ($10.00 projected vs. $10.17 actual)
NAV as of 12/31/2015: $0.25 per share variance; slightly outside range; lower end ($9.90 projected vs. $9.65 actual)
NAV as of 3/31/2016: $0.11 per share variance; within range ($9.50 projected vs. $9.61 actual)
Fiscal Q3 2016 NII: $0.00 per share variance; within range ($0.25 projected vs. $0.25 actual)
Dividends for Fiscal Q4 2014: Stated dividend was currently safe (no specific dividend declarations) which turned out to be correct for April 2014 – June 2014 dividends declared
Dividends for Fiscal Q1 2015: 100% accuracy (July. 2014 $0.110475 projected vs. $0.110475 actual) (Aug. 2014 $0.110500 projected vs. $0.110500 actual) (Sept. 2014 $0.110525 projected vs. $0.110525 actual)
Dividends for Fiscal Q2 2015: 100% accuracy (Oct. 2014 $0.110550 projected vs. $0.110550 actual) (Nov. 2014 $0.110575 projected vs. $0.110575 actual) (Dec. 2014 $0.110600 projected vs. $0.110600 actual)
Dividends for Fiscal Q3 2015^: (Jan. 2015 $0.110625 projected vs. $0.110625 actual) (Feb. 2015 $0.110650 projected vs. $0.0833 actual OUTSIDE RANGE) (Mar. 2015 $0.110675 projected vs. $0.0833 actual OUTSIDE RANGE)
^ = Correctly stated dividend would be cut. However, PSEC reduced dividends beginning in February 2015 and I projected the dividend decrease would occur in April 2015 (2 months earlier than projected)
Dividends for Fiscal Q4 2015: (April. 2015 was declared in December 2014 prior to my analysis for this quarter) 100% accuracy (May 2015 - June 2015 $0.0833 projected vs. $0.0833 actual)
Dividends for Fiscal Q1 2016: 100% accuracy (July 2015 - September 2015 $0.0833 projected vs. $0.0833 actual)
Dividends for Fiscal Q2 2016: 100% accuracy (October 2015 - December 2015 $0.0833 projected vs. $0.0833 actual)
Dividends for Fiscal Q3 2016: 100% accuracy (January 2016 - March 2016 $0.0833 projected vs. $0.0833 actual)
Dividends for Fiscal Q4 2016: 100% accuracy (April 2016 - June 2016 $0.0833 projected vs. $0.0833 actual)
Dividends for Fiscal Q1 2017: 100% accuracy (July 2016 - August 2016 $0.0833 projected vs. $0.0833 actual) (September 2016 = PENDING)
BV as of 6/30/2013: $0.11 per share variance; within range ($25.40 projected vs. $25.51 actual)
BV as of 9/30/2013: $1.36 per share variance; MATERIALLY OUTSIDE RANGE ($26.63 projected vs. $25.27 actual)
BV as of 12/31/2013: $0.58 per share variance; within range lower end ($24.51 projected vs. $23.93 actual)
BV as of 3/31/2014: $0.04 per share variance; within range ($24.45 projected vs. $24.49 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2014: $0.66 per share variance; within range higher end ($25.60 projected vs. $26.26 actual)
BV as of 9/30/2014: $0.35 per share variance; within range ($25.19 projected vs. $25.54 actual)
BV as of 12/31/2014: $0.29 per share variance; within range ($25.45 projected vs. $25.74 actual)
Comprehensive Income for Q1 2015: $0.02 per share variance; within range ($0.48 per share projected vs. $0.46 per share actual)
BV as of 3/31/2015: $0.11 per share variance; within range ($25.64 projected vs. $25.53 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2015: $0.24 per share variance; within range ($24.24 projected vs. $24.00 actual)
BV as of 9/30/2015: $0.44 per share variance; within range lower end ($23.44 projected vs. $23.00 actual)
BV as of 10/31/2015: $0.06 per share variance; within my monthly $0.30 per share range ($22.98 projected vs. $23.04 actual)
BV as of 11/30/2015: $0.27 per share variance; within my monthly $0.30 per share range ($22.25 projected vs. $22.52 actual)
BV as of 12/31/2015: $0.01 per share variance; within range ($22.60 projected vs. $22.59 actual)
BV as of 1/31/2016: $0.01 per share variance; within range ($22.39 projected vs. $22.40 actual)
BV as of 2/29/2016: $0.09 per share variance; within range ($22.82 projected vs. $22.73 actual)
BV as of 3/31/2016: $0.16 per share variance; within range ($22.25 projected vs. $22.09 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2016: $0.12 per share variance; within range ($22.10 projected vs. $22.22 actual)
Dividend for Q1 2013: $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($1.25 projected vs. $1.25 actual)
Dividend for Q2 2013: Correctly stated dividend cut would occur; $0.15 per share variance; within range higher end ($0.90 projected vs. $1.05 actual)
Dividend for Q3 2013: Correctly stated another dividend cut would occur; $0.10 per share variance; within range ($0.90 projected vs. $0.80 actual)
Dividend for Q4 2013: Correctly stated another dividend cut would occur; $0.05 per share variance; within range ($0.60 projected vs. $0.65 actual)
Dividend for Q1 2014: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.65 projected vs. $0.65 actual)
Dividend for Q2 2014: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.65 projected vs. $0.65 actual)
Dividend for Q3 2014: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.65 projected vs. $0.65 actual)
Dividend for November 2014 - April 2015: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; 100% accuracy ($0.22 projected vs. $0.22 actual)
Dividend for May 2015: Company declared dividend several weeks ahead of schedule; prior to my quarterly dividend sustainability analysis. As such, no dividend projection was provided for May 2015:
Dividend for June 2015 - August 2015: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; 100% accuracy ($0.20 projected vs. $0.20 actual)
Dividend for September 2015*: INCORRECTLY stated dividend would modestly reduced; ($0.18 projected vs. $0.20 actual)
Dividend for October and November 2015: Not provided but stated increased risk to reduction by end of 2015 / early 2016.
Dividend for December 2015**: Stated dividend would be stable; highest probability ($0.20 projected vs. $0.20 actual)
Dividend Declaration for January 2016: Not provided due to time constraints.
Dividend for February 2016 - July 2016: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; 100% accuracy ($0.20 projected vs. $0.20 actual)
Dividend for August 2016 - AGNC declared a ($0.02) per share decrease prior to my quarterly dividend sustainability analysis. However, in my prior quarter's analysis, I stated I thought AGNC's monthly dividend should be stable over the near-term (3-6 months). As such, I conclude this in an INCORRECT forward projection.
BV as of 12/31/2013***: $0.40 per share variance; within range lower end ($21.87 projected vs. $21.47 actual)
BV as of 3/31/2014***: $0.16 per share variance; within range ($21.94 projected vs. $21.78 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2014***: $0.13 per share variance; within range ($22.60 projected vs. $22.73 actual)
BV as of 9/30/2014***: $0.29 per share variance; within range ($21.95 projected vs. $22.24 actual)
BV as of 12/31/2014***: $0.19 per share variance; within range ($22.10 projected vs. $21.91 actual)
BV as of 3/31/2015***: $0.20 per share variance; within range ($21.80 projected vs. $22.00 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2015***: $0.30 per share variance; within range ($22.00 projected vs. $21.70 actual)
BV as of 9/30/2015***: $0.17 per share variance; within range ($20.10 projected vs. $19.93 actual); excluding "one-time" ($0.20) per share impairment charge related to RCS; $0.03 per share variance ($20.10 projected vs. $20.13 actual; excluding impairment charge).
BV as of 12/31/2015***: $0.16 per share variance; within range ($19.50 projected vs. $19.66 actual)
BV as of 3/31/2016***: $0.22 per share variance; within range ($19.25 projected vs. $19.03 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2016***: $0.28 per share variance; within range towards higher end ($19.15 projected vs. $19.47 actual)
Dividend for Q3 2013***: Correctly stated dividend would be modestly cut; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.70 projected vs. $0.70 actual)
Dividend for Q4 2013***: Correctly stated dividend would be slightly cut; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.65 projected vs. $0.65 actual)
Dividend for Q1 2014***: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.65 projected vs. $0.65 actual)
Dividend for Q2 2014 - Q4 2014***: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.65 projected vs. $0.65 actual)
Dividend for Q1 2015***: INCORRECTLY stated dividend would be stable; ($0.15) per share variance; ($0.65 projected vs. $0.50 actual) In my opinion, the severity of this cut was very disappointing.
Dividend for Q2 2015***: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.50 projected vs. $0.50 actual)
Dividend for Q3 2015***: INCORRECTLY stated dividend would be stable; ($0.10) per share variance; ($0.50 projected vs. $0.40 actual) In my opinion, the severity of this cut was very disappointing once again.
Dividend for Q4 2015 - Q2 2016***: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.40 projected vs. $0.40 actual)
BV as of 3/31/2014***: $0.10 per share variance; within range ($12.40 projected vs. $12.30 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2014***: $0.43 per share variance; SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE RANGE higher end ($12.80 projected vs. $13.23 actual)
BV as of 9/30/2014***: $0.07 per share variance; within range ($12.95 projected vs. $12.88 actual)
BV as of 12/31/2014***: $0.15 per share variance; within range ($12.95 projected vs. $13.10 actual)
BV as of 3/31/2015***: $0.32 per share variance; SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE RANGE; lower end ($13.20 projected vs. $12.88 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2015***: $0.17 per share variance; within range ($12.15 projected vs. $12.32 actual)
BV as of 9/30/2015***: $0.16 per share variance; within range ($12.15 projected vs. $11.99 actual)
BV as of 12/31/2015***: $0.13 per share variance; within range ($12.60 projected vs. $12.73 actual) (most of the variance was in relation to the accretive effect of Q4 2015 share repurchases)
BV as of 3/31/2016***: $0.04 per share variance; within range ($11.65 projected vs. $11.61 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2016***: $0.35 per share variance; within range towards lower end ($11.85 projected vs. $11.50 actual)
Dividend for Q1 2014 - Q1 2015***: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.30 projected vs. $0.30 actual)
Dividend for Q2 2015***: INCORRECTLY stated dividend would be reduced; $0.05 per share variance; ($0.25 projected vs. $0.30 actual)
Dividend for Q3 2015 - Q2 2016***: Correctly stated dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.30 projected vs. $0.30 actual)
NAV as of 3/31/2013: $0.03 per share variance; within range ($9.87 projected vs. $9.90 actual)
NAV as of 6/30/2013: $0.04 per share variance; within range ($9.94 projected vs. $9.90 actual)
NAV as of 9/30/2013: $0.01 per share variance; within range ($9.86 projected vs. $9.85 actual)
NAV as of 12/31/2013: $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($9.85 projected vs. $9.85 actual)
NAV as of 3/31/2014: $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($9.81 projected vs. $9.81 actual)
NAV as of 6/30/2014: $0.06 per share variance; within range lower end ($9.77 projected vs. $9.71 actual)
NAV as of 9/30/2014: $0.01 per share variance; within range ($9.65 projected vs. $9.64 actual)
NAV as of 12/31/2014: $0.37 per share variance; MATERIALLY OUTSIDE RANGE ($9.54 projected vs. $9.17 actual)
NAV as of 3/31/2015: $0.21 per share variance; OUTSIDE RANGE ($8.97 projected vs. $9.18 actual)
NAV as of 6/30/2015: $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($9.13 projected vs. $9.13 actual) (projections + article were provided to certain interested parties outside S.A.)
NAV as of 9/30/2015: $0.05 per share variance; within range ($8.95 projected vs. $9.00 actual) (projections + analysis were provided to certain interested parties; did not have enough time to provide an article)
FSC’s Dividend Sustainability Analysis Through Fiscal Q3 2013: Stated moderate to material dividend cut is needed; 100% accurate because company cut dividend beginning in December 2013
Dividend for Fiscal Q3 2015****: Correctly stated very low risk for a dividend reduction; dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy (April 2015 $0.06 projected vs. $0.06 actual) (May 2015 $0.06 projected vs. $0.06 actual) (June 2015 $0.06 projected vs. $0.06 actual)
Dividend for September 2015 - February 2016****: Correctly stated very low risk for a dividend reduction; dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy (September 2015 $0.06 projected vs. $0.06 actual) (October 2015 $0.06 projected vs. $0.06 actual) (November 2015 $0.06 projected vs. $0.06 actual) (December 2015 $0.06 projected vs. $0.06 actual) (January 2016 $0.06 projected vs. $0.06 actual) (February 2016 $0.06 projected vs. $0.06 actual)
Dividend for September 2016 - November 2016 Correctly stated very low risk for a dividend reduction; dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.06 per share projected vs. $0.06 per share actual)
NAV as of 12/31/2013: $0.12 per share variance; within range lower end (wider range b/c first full quarter of operations) ($15.22 projected vs. $15.10 actual)
NAV as of 3/31/2014: $0.03 per share variance; within range ($15.13 projected vs. $15.10 actual)
NAV as of 6/30/2014: $0.01 per share variance; within range ($15.14 projected vs. $15.13 actual)
NAV as of 9/30/2014: $0.02 per share variance; within range ($12.63 projected vs. $12.65 actual)
NAV as of 12/31/2014: $0.10 per share variance; within range (at lowest end) ($12.635 projected vs. $12.534 actual)
NAV as of 3/31/2015: $0.08 per share variance; within range ($12.38 projected vs. $12.46 actual)
NAV as of 6/30/2015: $0.15 per share variance; within range (at lowest end) ($12.38 projected vs. $12.23 actual)
NAV as of 9/30/2015: $0.18 per share variance; within range (at higher end) ($11.93 projected vs. $12.11 actual)
NAV as of 12/31/2015: Not provided to readers due to the fact the company "pre-announced" NAV prior to my quarterly projection analysis (due to a material reduction)
NAV as of 3/31/2016: $0.17 per share variance; within range (at higher end) ($11.01 projected vs. $11.18 actual)
NAV as of 6/30/2016: $0.31 per share variance; MODESTLY OUTSIDE range ($11.30 projected vs. $10.99 actual)
Dividend Declaration for December 2015 - February 2016: Correctly stated very low probability (10%) for a dividend reduction; dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy (December 2015 $0.075 projected vs. $0.075 actual) (January 2016 $0.075 projected vs. $0.075 actual) (February 2016 $0.075 projected vs. $0.075 actual)
Dividend Sustainability Analysis Through Q4 2013: Stated material dividend cut was needed as soon as the next quarter; 100% accurate because company cut dividend in Q1 2014 from $0.80 per share (regular dividend portion) to $0.67 per share.
Dividend for Q4 2014*****: Stated dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.70 projected vs. $0.70 actual)
Dividend for Q1 2015***: Stated dividend would be "relatively" stable; accurate because company only cut its dividend by ($0.03) per share which, when calculated, was only a "minor" (< 5%) reduction
Dividend for Q2 2015***: Stated heightened risk for another minor - modest dividend reduction; accurate because company cut its dividend by ($0.03) per share which, when calculated, was another "minor" (< 5%) reduction
Dividend for Q3 2015: Correctly stated dividend would be modestly cut; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.60 projected vs. $0.60 actual
Dividend for Q3 2015*****: Stated dividend had a modest to high probability (50% - 75%) of being reduced; 100% accurate because company reduced monthly dividends from $0.18 per share to $0.14 per share beginning in July 2015.
Dividend for August 2015 - July 2016: Correctly stated each month dividend would be stable; 100% accuracy ($0.14 projected vs. $0.14 actual)
BV as of 9/30/2015: $0.06 per share variance; within range ($11.63 projected vs. $11.69 actual)
BV as of 12/31/2015: $0.09 per share variance; within range ($11.74 projected vs. $11.65 actual)
BV as of 3/31/2016: $0.09 per share variance; within range ($11.10 projected vs. $11.01 actual)
BV as of 6/30/2016: $0.01 per share variance; within range ($10.86 projected vs. $10.85 actual)
Dividend Declaration for Calendar Q2 2015****: Correctly stated low risk for a dividend reduction; dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy (April 2015 $0.175 projected vs. $0.175 actual) (May 2015 $0.175 projected vs. $0.175 actual) (June 2015 $0.175 projected vs. $0.175 actual).
Dividend Declaration for September - November 2015: Correctly stated very low risk for a dividend reduction; dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy (September 2015 $0.175 - $0.18 projected vs. $0.180 actual) (October 2015 $0.175 - $0.18 projected vs. $0.180 actual) (November 2015 $0.175 - $0.18 projected vs. $0.180 actual).
Special Periodic Dividend Declaration for 2015: Correctly stated high probability of a special periodic dividend paid in December 2015; exactly at my projected mean: ($0.25 - $0.30 projected vs. $0.275 actual).
Dividend Declaration for December 2015 - February 2016: Correctly stated very low risk for a dividend reduction; dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy (December 2015 $0.18 projected vs. $0.180 actual) (January 2016 $0.18 projected vs. $0.180 actual) (February 2016 $0.18 projected vs. $0.180 actual).
Dividend Declaration for March 2016 - May 2016: Correctly stated very low risk for a dividend reduction; dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy (March 2016 $0.18 - $0.185 projected vs. $0.180 actual) (April 2016 $0.18 - $0.185 projected vs. $0.180 actual) (May 2016 $0.18 - $0.185 projected vs. $0.180 actual).
Dividend Declaration for June 2016 - August 2016: Correctly stated very low risk for a dividend reduction; dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy (June 2016 $0.18 - $0.185 projected vs. $0.180 actual) (July 2016 $0.18 - $0.185 projected vs. $0.180 actual) (August 2016 $0.18 - $0.185 projected vs. $0.180 actual).
Special Periodic Dividend Declaration for First-Half 2016: Correctly stated high probability of a special periodic dividend paid in June 2016; exactly at my projected mean: ($0.25 - $0.30 projected vs. $0.275 actual).
Dividend Declaration for September 2016 - November 2016: Correctly stated very low risk for a dividend reduction; dividend would be stable; $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy (Sept. 2016 $0.18 - $0.185 projected vs. $0.185 actual) (October 2016 $0.18 - $0.185 projected vs. $0.185 actual) (November 2016 $0.18 - $0.185 projected vs. $0.185 actual).
Q4 2015 Adjusted Diluted EPS: $0.00 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.67 projected vs. $0.67 per share actual)
Q1 2016 Adjusted Diluted EPS: $0.02 per share variance; within range lower end of $0.04 per share range ($0.70 projected vs. $0.72 per share actual)
Q2 2016 Adjusted Diluted EPS: $0.01 per share variance; 100% accuracy ($0.80 projected vs. $0.81 per share actual)
* = Stated there was a 60% probability dividend would be reduced to $0.18 per share; a 30% probability dividend would remain stable at $0.20 per share
** = Stated there was a 45% probability dividend would be reduced to $0.16 - $0.19 per share
*** = Provided within an AGNC article
**** = Provided within a PSEC article
***** = Provided within a NLY article