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iyamwutiam

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  • "Anecdotal checks" indicate strong U.S. demand for the Q10 (particularly among business users) and soft Z10 demand, says Wells Fargo, which is raising its FQ2 (Aug. quarter) revenue and EPS estimates for BlackBery (BBRY +2.5%) to $3.4B and $0.15 (consensus is at $3.3B and $0.12) . Wells, which has a valuation range of $19-$20, also thinks the consensus for FQ1 BB10 sales has risen to ~3.5M, sees possible upside to its FQ1 and FY14 estimates, and believes shares could "react favorably" if BlackBerry simply meets FY14 forecasts. 1M Q5 sales are forecast for FQ2. (SocGen) (Jefferies[View news story]
    The z 10 is a nice phone but it is basically the first touch screen phone that offers similar functionality to the established IPhone and Galaxy models. So I am not surprised that the sales slowed. The q10 is different because a lot of people who have become accustomed to the qwerty keyboard will also get a better browser and hub functionality. So to the die hard fan will be happier. I expect strong sales. They need to focus on a robust android engine emulator and they will be golden. This is the first priority for them in my opinion.
    Jun 14 02:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) only looks cheap if it maintains its profit margins (35.3% in 2012), writes The Brooklyn Investor. Slapping Samsung's mobile operating margin of 18% on Apple's $181B in expected revenue this year then giving it a 10 multiple and adding back cash yields a value of $370/share. Margins might not decline right away (and revenues may increase to offset), but Apple bulls are fighting the powerful historical tendency (particularly for Apple) of excess margins getting competed away. [View news story]
    Apple is not a cutting edge product any longer because of its ubiquitous distribution. This was fantastic for apple's rise but I do think they have lost the high end label and cool factor because so many carriers have subsidized the cost. You can be assured that the long lines outside Apple stores will be shorter.

    This along with margin compression and more competitive offerings from HTC, Samsung and yes even BlackBerry will make it difficult for Apple Inc to continue to be a dominant player that can command premium dollars for their products. Google with Android has already established market share majority and a perception that Android based products are not only competitive but may offer more value. If Apple disappoints in 2013 in terms of product buzz- their 'brand' image will take a hit and the public will move away from them like they did from BlackBerry. It is frightening how quickly products can be seen as passe.
    Apr 20 09:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Thoughts About BlackBerry [View article]
    As the owner of the Z10 I urge you to consider the phone. It is beyond a doubt a fantastic phone and the keyboard's predictive text is quite a revelation. I am still getting used it but for me it's working out just fine.
    The gesture driven interface is also quite good and easy to get used to - as a novice to touch screen it took me only three days to be comfortable with it. The hub feature is also a winner and in all respects I am quite happy with the phone.
    Comment typed with the Z10.
    Apr 20 02:16 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry And The Canadian Government - Help Or Hindrance [View article]
    So your saying that Apple/Google/Cisco do NOT co-operate with the US government for intelligence purposes? The fact is that American companies have been involved in espionage for quite for some time -particularly the news agencies such as CNN.

    Google OSS spies lsit- they had over 25,000 spies on the payroll from all walks of lives particularly entertainers, journalists and of course the usual cadre of professors in every ivy league institution in america. Also EXIM banks are also a great known institution for harboring 'intelligence' activity.

    There is one other point - which is if you feel free to set up behemoth manufacturing plants in third world countries by a host of corporations to benefit from currency and labor differences - by essentially coaxing countries to be more international. Then why is it then when these countries have huge surpluses of US dollars they are not allowed to buy US/Canadian/ European corporations?

    GE/GM would have been bought outright for over 100 billion dollars by the Chinese in 2008/2009. I seriously doubt it would have effected the dominance the US has in technology.

    Essentially - the Chinese will not suddenly depreciate their currency by massive amounts as Japan did in the 80s when they were running huge surpluses from US trade (as China is not an occupied country with permanently stationed US troops in Okinawa). The Chinese are basically left to pursue resources which was effectively blunted in Africa by the emergence of the Arab spring which suprise surprise took place mainly in ...Africa!!

    I think Ms. Shah fails to be pragmatic about how the world works. Trade surpluses essentially are left with only one path -US Treasury bonds as any possible product involving technology - can be 'dual use' and hence be restricted in the interest of national security. There is just as much support for western governments for their industries as China does -what they do not have is a mature and widespread system of public funds capture -such as IRA's, 401Ks and pension funds which are also used to finance industry.

    If many of the emerging economies could or do implement such a system then these economies would also dramatically increase their pool of domestic cash resources and be less reliant on foreign capital for supporting their domestic industries.
    Apr 18 11:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantitative Easing And The Great Market Correction? [View article]
    What about the fact that the federal Reserve is a proxy for a consortium of banks and that these banks not only received bailout funds but also participate in both the equity and bond market? Also foreign banks such also received said funds and may this explain the support of both the markets? Data shows that both the Chinese and Russians have decreased bond purchases and recently it is the Japanese and off shore banks that are doing the heavy lifting.

    Also with Japanese and European QE added to the mix as well as slow growth -why would the Federal Reserve feel any pressure to decrease QE considering there is supposedly no inflation?
    Apr 14 03:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold miners (GDX -4.5%) are getting destroyed as gold prices cross into bear territory. Capitulation, if it’s here, would mean a true bottom in price, and Tocqueville Gold Fund's John Hathaway says that's what we’re approaching; he sees strong macro fundamentals for gold, investor sentiment at a negative extreme and compelling valuations in mining shares - "a contrarian's dream scenario." [View news story]
    As for Cypruss gold I have read that they have reversed their earlier denial. I really think this is tied into Cyprus Gold as the banks will be able to pick up 10 tons of gold for a much cheaper price with todays market action. With all this quantitative easing (Japan in particular and the ripple effects it will have by forcing Korea amongst others to also ease) I just can't see the price of Gold NOT rebounding.
    Apr 12 02:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Most U.S. consumers remain either unfamiliar with or unenthusiastic about Nokia (NOK) and BlackBerry's (BBRY) latest hardware, according to an MKM survey of 1,500 people. While 51% of respondents owned a smartphone, only 6% plan to buy a BlackBerry in the next 12 months, and just 1% a Nokia phone. Moreover, in spite of the Z10 and Lumia 920/820 launches, 63% of respondents had no idea when BB10 would launch in the U.S., and 61% were unaware WP8 (MSFT) phones are available. BlackBerry is counting on a fresh marketing push to raise its U.S. profile. [View news story]
    I have done a very informal and unscientific Poll and quite frankly I was quite disappointed that most of the time the sales staff were not enthused about the Z10. In fact most of the staff personally would not go back to BlackBerry. My enthusiasm for seeing blackberry stock rebound was dampened.

    I have purchased the Z10 and I must say that it has an awesome keyboard which I am using to type this reply! The rest is not that impressive so I am not sure about the future of blackberry sales per se. Anyway long BlackBerry and anxious.
    Apr 9 08:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Stock Is A Massive Risk [View article]
    At this point I don't think earnings should be the main parameter of valuation - but I doubt that many would agree. The company is definitely in 'turn around' mode and so to jump on any single quarter as the determinant of the viabilitiy of the company of future stock price is silly.

    What we do definitely know for a fact is that the Z1 is the best single launch of a Blackberry phone in quite some time. It has addressed the din of criticism regarding touch screen, out dated interface and lack of power compared tot he premium phones. (As an aside I am not sure why many posters are saying that the hardware is outdated since the Iphone 5 is 1 gig ram and a dual core processor).

    I doubt it will shatter sales records and sell 10-20 million phones in the year. But... it will or has established that Blackberry is capable of turning around and delivering a quality product and taking their existing resources TAT/QNX and developing a product that can compete. In short, management has been vindicated with their ability to conserve cash, re-group as a globally relevant brand and finally showing sincere effort to stem the tide of consumer migration caused by previous missteps.

    All the moves make sense -including the release of the Z10 BEFORE the Q10 imo. First - the keyboard on the Z10 shows that Blackberry is capable of leveraging its previous product expertise in keyboards to produce a phone with the BEST touchscreen on the market period. This is not an opinion but rather the result of meta-analysis from hundreds of reviews. It may be the most important selling feature in the future as both consumers and business users have rejected a perfectly fine working keyboard in favor of touchscreen phones with larger screens.

    The stability of the OS. I have had the playbook for over 2 years and as mentioned previously- I am impressed with how trouble free it had been during the time I have had it compared to the an Android tablet like the Sony Tablet S. Everything about the product is designed for the no frills reliability that has really won me over.

    As for apps like netflix and huluplus etc. - the fault is NOT Blackberry's!! All other sites such as Crackle, youtube etc work flawlessly on the playbook. It was designed to play flash and do it well. The problem is that Netflix and Huluplus both block access to playbook -which can work on their site -for issues other than OS / compatibility etc. It was/ is a great idea - you wouldn't need a Blackberry OS app because the browser is robust as any you will find on a laptop and so should/does play those sites perfectly fine with OUT a need for an app.

    Anyway -bottom line management is sincere and effective. Product line is MUCH improved and the keyboard and user interface are marvelous. Blackberry has addressed the most important issues and so the concern is only the fickle fingers of mass acceptance or brand perception. Since they do have a hard core group of people in the developing world - I am long.
    Mar 27 10:49 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conspiracy Theory... BlackBerry? [View article]
    The situation Blackberry was in - there was no way they can/could hit the ball out of the park. First, it is practically impossible to create a phone where you are not using someone's patent -be it Google, Apple, Nokia, etc etc. In this litigious environment even user interface and icons have all become obstructionist or extortionists tools for those who reach market dominance.

    Blackberry was not going to undo several years of ignoring the touch screen, browser capability and other things over nite in a single product. If people were hoping (including over-paid talking head running with the herd analysts) that the Z10 was going to be a ground breaking innovative paradigm that held no equal -then we are all living in a united state of amnesia. A lot of the Iphone 3 'break through' was already perfected from years of the Ipod /iTouch interface. The came the iPhone (Palm Treo anyone?) and finally we went back to essentially a giant iPod touch- rebranded as the iPad. Evolutionary, iterative changes fashioned this behemoth and its main competitor google not some viola single product launch oozing with 'innovation'. Ultimately though it starts with the OS -neXt in Apple's case and Android for google.

    For Blackberry -it has already succeeded in doing what it set out to do. It has changed perception of their ability to innovate or create. The loss of the playbook in the marketplace was not as important as the fact that in the QNX system they have a stable platform that can serve as the OS of the future. I have the playbook and other than its boot up time - I find very little to fault for some who primarily uses to web browse, read and message. It is an extremely stable OS and I find myself reaching for it because it is a trouble free experience almost all of the time.

    In short, I doubt Blackberry should have ever thought that they could come up and "hit it out of the park' -even if they had a great product. They worked hard on QNX - and it is this platform that will ensure their future going forward.

    Also I do think that both Apple and Samsung by their sheer ubiquity have fallen from the lofty perches of 'premium' phones and that alone will start a small shift to Blackberry. A stable, worry free product is the cornerstone of a phone and I do think that Blackberry delivered a lot on this account. I don't think the March 28 th numbers will be great - but I do think that Blackberry may actually be the first phone where the US market will not be the primary reason for its global sales. I think that they will fend off Microsoft/Nokia in this space and if they were ever bought by a non-western company to ensure the highest level of security -they would run a long way based just on security.

    However -I do feel that security is basically a moot issue when the providers Google/Apple/Blackberr... etc will gladly turn over any and all information to any government agency with out a warrant or even probable cause in many many man cases. Lets not forget the assassination in Doha of Khled Mashal (since we are talking conspiracy theory) being tracked by his Blackberry messenger ID and subsequently causing Saudi Arabia/Qatar, India to have the same access to Blackberry servers that the US government had. Security is non-existent in the truest sense of the word and quite frankly in the consumer market -no one cares much about it since we are pretty sure that the providers all willingly hand over any and all data to any agency that requests it with out nary a delay or really a whisper of protest.
    Mar 25 11:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Too Early To Get Excited About BlackBerry's Revival [View article]
    It may be India - they were sold out of all stock in two days. I doubt AT&T would order a million before they even know US public response from sales. There is still a huge following of Blackberry particularly in Asia. The ubiquity of Android (Samsung) and Apple may also initiate an exodus into Blackberry for some users to be 'different' -now that Blackberry has come out with a premium smartphone.
    Mar 14 03:43 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Not So DOA Anymore, Is It? [View article]
    I think the issue is if blackberry is trying to compete in the consumer market. Or are they really-establishing themselves as the preeminent business phone. I strongly think it's the latter and not the former.

    RIM knows how competitive the mobile phone market is and I doubt. They had aspirations of coming into the market with some best in show and in one fell swoop reclaim their past glory. But I think they have gone a long way in re-establishing their relevancy in the corporate market.
    Mar 14 02:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Not So DOA Anymore, Is It? [View article]
    A couple of thoughts on "lackberry;. I think they did the right thing in concentrating on their core business which is secure business communicating and addressing the known flaws of their product.
    Primarily:
    1. A lousy browser
    2. Improving security of the device
    3. Updating the product - with touch screen and greatly improving their keyboard (which many business people use).
    4. Revamping the OS and focusing the product as a communication device with deep integration to calender, contacts , email etc - now known as the Hub and peek.
    5. Understanding that the old way of their user interface (trackpad and chicklet keyboard) was antiquated and focusing on a thumb driven touch interface.
    6. Improving the hardware on their handsets to improve screen and processing power.

    All these changes were badly needed and will be greatly appreciated by business consumers or aspirational business entrepreneurs. The z 10 is a great start and though not perfect addresses some key issues for many businesses. They also have cleverly included the ability to port android apps (though this still needs work and I believe will be a future strong selling point).
    Mar 14 08:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple At $600 Still Undervalued? [View article]
    I am going with Jaffra on this- just because of my own user experience of the Playbook and iPad. The iPad is nice but for the price and some features which I have had nary a complaint and unlike other tablets -not a single crash -also own the Sony S Tablet- which is a colossal waste imo and extremely crash prone.

    An example- I LOVE the blackberry bridge function. Personally it is so SMART to be able to seperate my personal and company stuff from the tablet and disconnect at the push of the button and hand of the tablet to someone for say a presentation/article/v... etc. That people complained their personal info is not accessible on the tablet all the time -to me is silly. It is an excellent idea-in addition -the phone acting as a remote and the tablet a monitor comes in very handy. I can talk to t he rep and pull up stuff on the tablet seamlessly. I need no keyboard to lug around as I am used to the BB phone. I like it does not have time wasters like fruit ninja and ad nauseum apps that really do very little for me. I love docs to go. The flaw is surprisingly the Adobe Reader - which does not allow annotation , book marks etc -like the Sony.

    As I said I have had this for 4 months and it has NEVER crashed. The Sony is great if you want a living room photo frame/reader lus remote to show people how your future ready and the wife lovs the push to DLNA feature which allows people to show an unnecessary amount of pictures ont he 65' screen with no issues.

    I am just saying sometimes good ideas are stampeded in the madness of crowds. It happens.
    Apr 11 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walt Disney Co: Let The Future Earnings Begin [View article]
    I think Apple's run is over. Real people who were at Apple stores did not see the frenzy, enthusiasm and most importantly crowds that were present at some other launches. Apple's success in designing mediocre products with great (simplified) user interface (starting with the click wheel on the original iPods) and then moving into touchscreen territory is old hat and quite frankly it is not as premier a brand as it was years ago because its competitors (particularly Samsung) have done a very good job. There last two products have NO innovation as Vlingo does everything Siri does and like others said -I just don't see what Apple has to offer except unfettered access of your info/GPS etc to the US government with out them even asking -sort of like Google.

    The problem with projections are they are tainted with subjectivity and selection bias. A lot of the numbers are obviously baked -for example the original iPads numbers were astronomical -and then suspiciously a bunch of car dealerships were offering them if you bought a car and other vendors as well.

    Android is catching up with Apple's IOS and more importantly competitors like Acer/Toshiba/Samsung are expanding and improving the user experience -as Ice Cream Sandwich will show.
    Mar 27 12:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple At $600 Still Undervalued? [View article]
    Well said- and thanks for your contribution.
    Mar 26 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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