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Zirdu

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  • The Electrification Of The Transportation Industry And Its Implications [View article]
    Good article. But I hate it when an author uses an obscure (to me) acronym without definition. From the context I assume "ICE-based" transportation means transportation using petroleum, as gasoline or diesel. But how do you transform ice into gas? Hmmm....
    May 13, 2015. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The New Nifty Fifty: A Comparative Performance Analysis [View article]
    Interesting article. However, if you think about it, all it really shows is that if you ask a group of investors to pick their 50 best stocks, on average they tend to pick the best performers for the past 10 years. So you pick a stock like Apple, which has had a fantastic 10 year return, and now pays a dividend - but would it really been on the list 10 years ago? I myself recall thinking, some 10 or 15 years ago, that Apple was going to fade away to nothing.
    Dec 8, 2014. 08:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sohu.com Looks Fully Valued [View article]
    The biggest part of your valuation of SOHU is it's stake in Changyou, which you (reasonably) value at it's market price. But I assume what you are trying to do is put an intrinsic value on SOHU, not just tell us what it's market value is. So, to put a true intrinsic value on SOHU, you have to dig deeper, and put an intrinsic value on CYOU, and not just accept it's market value as a given input, especially since the main value of SOHU, according to you, is it's stake in CYOU.
    Sep 18, 2013. 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Biologic: A Star Small-Cap Pick From China [View article]
    Ccamire: Just a few comments on your post.

    1. It is true that they will suspend production for six to nine months at Guizhu Taibang to upgrade the facility. This has been known for some time. They claim that to make up for this suspension, they are stockpiling product. More to the point on the effect on revenue, CBPO claims in their latest report that 2013 revenue will still increase over 2012 revenue:

    "For the full year of 2013, the Company reiterates comfort with its full year financial forecast of total sales in the range of $195 million to $205 million and full year non-GAAP adjusted net income in the range of $50 million to $53 million. This guidance assumes the anticipated production suspension at the Company's Guizhou facility, only organic growth and excludes acquisitions and necessarily assumes no significant adverse product price changes during 2013."

    So, despite the shutdown, the latest word from CBPO is a prediction of an increase of $10 to $20 million increase in revenue in 2013 over 2012 (which was about $185 million)

    More comments on the effect of the shutdown:

    " Additionally, we expect to commence our Guizhou Taibang facility upgrade in the beginning of June which will result in a six-to-nine month production suspension. We have already factored in this suspension to our 2013 financial forecast and have been building inventory in recent quarters to ensure we have adequate customer supply."

    2. You say prices have deteriorated. Again, the latest word is that there have been some price increases:

    "During the three months ended March 31, 2013, most of the Company's approved products recorded price increases. The price increase for the human albumin products was primarily attributable to the increase of the retail price ceiling announced by the NDRC in January 2013, which came into effect at the beginning of February, enabling the Company to raise ex-factory prices in certain regional markets. The general price for the immunoglobulin product group (other than human hepatitis B immunoglobulin products) remained consistent, as the average price for human immunoglobulin for intravenous injection ("IVIG") products increased 2% over the prior year period.Mr. Gao concluded, "We are off to a solid start in 2013 and remain confident we can meet market demand during our Guizhou production facility transition. Our outlook for the remainder of the year is strong and we reiterate comfort with our full year financial guidance forecast."

    3. High turnover of executive in past two years is, IMO, a good thing at some possibly shady executives were removed by the more professional executives appointed by Warburg Pincus.

    4. Finally, I don't understand your comment that "I would be extremely surprised if among these 20 companies or so, the total revenues from plasma is >$50m" Since CBPO revenues are at the $185 - $200 million level, what are you saying here??
    Jun 17, 2013. 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Biologic: A Star Small-Cap Pick From China [View article]
    Excellent article. I have owned and followed China Biologic for many years, and it has been a very profitable long term investment.

    One things your readers should know is that the company is controlled by Warburg Pincus, a highly respected US based private equity company. I think they own 41% of the outstanding shares. They have had a very good impact on the company, in my opinion.

    Another block of shares, about 10%, is owned by a former founder, who was suspected of some criminal activity prior to his involvment with China Biologic. He no longer has any position in the company. I think Warburg Pincus basically forced him to leave. Recently this person (along with his wife) tried to sell his 10% stake to one of China Biologic's Chinese competitors, so CBPO put in a poison pill to prevent this. This deal apparently fell through, at least for now. But obviously this person (Tun Lam, I think is his name) wants to sell his stake. It is possible that Warburg Pincus might buy it, it this would be legal under China law. They did just buy a 10% stake from another founder. But if he tried to sell on the open market in a rapid fashion, this would severely impact the share price short term.

    The ownership and effective control of the company by Warburg Pincus more or less insulates this China small cap from the kinds of fraud that has plagued some other Chinese companies.
    Jun 13, 2013. 03:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3SBio: Mexican Stand-Off [View article]
    Excellent article. When 3SBio announced the proposed buyout at $15, the stock jumped 2 or 3 points from a very low point. It has remained there for the past few months. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks have rebounded greatly. For example, China Biologic has gone from about $10 to almost $20 in that period. Like 3SBio, China Biologic is a profitible biotech that is subject to price controls.

    I think that the $15 price buyout is now serving only to supress the price of 3SBio. If they announced they were abandoning the offer tomorrow, I suspect the stock price would actually rise!

    I for one am going to vote all my shares against the buyout, so long as it is at $15. I agree that $30 is a more reasonable buyout price, but even that price undervalues the potential of this company, IMO.
    Jan 14, 2013. 08:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasoline Prices To Jump 15% (At Least) In May [View article]
    What company are you talking about?? You never say what company in the Bakken is supposed to increase earnings 50% a year for the next 5 years.
    Apr 27, 2012. 10:53 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MAP Pharma: Making Money From Migraines [View article]
    $60 a dose?? At that price, I will continue to treat my migranes with extra strength excedrin and a dark room.
    Mar 11, 2012. 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Class Action Suits Could Hurt China MediaExpress [View article]
    Arer you sure you searched PACER correctly? From the press releases put out by the many law firms, most state that they "have filed a lawsuit against Chine Media Express." I can't believe they would lie about this, as there would be serious consequenses for a law firm that did so. I counted at least 12 to 15 filed cases. Some just say they are "investigating", which implies no lawsuit filed yet. The first named defendant in these cases is not always the company, but it is some officer of the company. They sue the officers as well as the company itself.

    The lawyers all HAD to have signed up one real plaintiff with a real "loss" before filing the suit. Someone has to be named as the plaintiff in the case. What they are doing now is advertising their services and expertise to all shareholders, so more shareholders will sign with them. The law firm who represents the most number of shares is in the cat birds seat to be appointed the lead plainiff. That is what all the law firms want, because that is where the money is.

    The suits will eventually all be consolidated into one case. It will take years to litigate, assuming they get beyond the motion to dismiss stage. At this point, I am not sure they could survive such a motion, since the cases all allege simply: bolgger X and/or Y stated the company was fraudulently reporting revenue, the stock price went down, and therefore we are entitled to damages. I am not sure such a hearsay allegation is sufficient to state a claim.

    They are really all waiting/hoping for more evidence to come out to support their claims. Or for the company to admit wrongdoing, like RINO did. If so, their cases will become more valuable. If not, then the cases will not be worth much.
    Mar 10, 2011. 03:24 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Land Mines to Watch For When Investing in China in 2011 [View article]
    Interesting "Disclosure" ... "Neither David Sterman nor StreetAuthority, LLC hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article."

    Pretty easy, since the article does not mention any securities! LOL

    Unless you count the phrase "any Chinese stocks." Do you mean to say you own no Chinese stocks?
    Nov 7, 2010. 08:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Biotech Stocks Targeted by Short Sellers Over the Last 3 Months [View article]
    Your reliance on the short ratio to find companies "targeted by short sellers in the past three months" can lead to inaccuracies. The short ratio can change a lot just because of a change in average volume, with little change in actual shares shorted.

    For example look at CBPO. On 5/28 it had a short ratio of 2.69, and on 8/31 the short ratio had moved up to 15.94. But most of this change was due to a substantial reduction in trading volume in that period, not an increase in actual short interest.

    On 5/28 CBPO had 601,771 shares short, and on 8/31 it had 784,900 shares short. An increase to be sure, but not all that significant.

    The short ratio changed so much in that time period simply because the average volume on 5/28 was 223, 546, and by 8/31 the average volume had fallen to 49,294.
    Sep 17, 2010. 09:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China-Biotics: Refuting Citron Research's Claims [View article]
    RAKawai: You say that CHBT has claimed to have 111 or 103 "retail stores." I can't find where they used the phrase "retail store". Can you let me know where you find this? Here is what they said in their latest 10Q, for period ending June 30, 2010:

    "As of June 30, 2010, we have 27 distributors for retail products, and we are operating 103 retail outlets in China (as of June 30, 2009, we had 107 retail outlets). During the quarter ended June 30, 2010, we added 1 distributor for retail products and closed 8 retail outlets, as we believe selling retail products through our distribution network is a more efficient way to grow our retail market. We have been hiring consultants who have many years of experience in the direct selling industry to facilitate the development of the Shining brand outlets. We are also creating a “Community Network” through which we continuously provide training and seminars to educate the public about becoming more health conscious and about the benefits of probiotics and the Shining products."

    And in the most recent 10K, for year ending 3/31/2010:

    " We intend to expand the sale of our retail products to the other metropolitan cities in China through a combination of traditional distribution channels and dedicated Shining outlets. We have a total of 111 outlets as of March 31, 2010. About three quarters of these outlets are located in Shanghai, and the rest are located in 12 other cities in China".

    They use the term "retail outlet". Is there a difference between a "retail outlet" where Shining product is sold and a "retail store?" I would think so. It is admittedly not all that clear, but the words used by CHBT in their filings could be interpreted to mean that, as of June 30th, 2010 they had 103 "retail outlets" for the sale of their product in China. From the 10K, maybe 75% of these, or 77 of them, were in Shanghai. Some of these 77 "retail outlets" in Shanghai are "dedicated Shining outlets" (i.e. what you call "stores"). Some of the 77 are shelf space in other stores. This is exactly what the investigators found when they looked at the addresses provided by CHBT. I agree that their language could have been clearer, but maybe this is just a misunderstanding of the language used in their SEC filings.
    Sep 16, 2010. 11:40 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China-Biotics: Refuting Citron Research's Claims [View article]
    I can see a small justification for keeping their money in the low interest type account. Less risk that way. Another US traded China co I own is 3SBio (SSRX) They tried to make a little more on their cash by buying some Lehman paper. Supposedly completely safe. They got burned to the tune of several million dollars. Things like this tend to make CFO's very conservative.
    Sep 15, 2010. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CHBT Store Verification Results Start Rolling In [View instapost]
    You state: "So now you count on a quarterly basis, this store can generate maybe 15k, you need 100 of these to generate 1.5mil...the reported 25mil number, you would be looking at 1800 retail outlets in a city like Shanghai."

    So you argue that they would need 1800 retail stores to generate the 25 million in reported quarterly revenue. You neglect to take into account that only 7.8% of that 25 million in revenue is from the 111 retail outlet "stores." 7.8% of 25 million is 1.95 million. 111 times 15k is 1.67 million. Pretty close to your estimates.
    Sep 1, 2010. 09:57 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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