fnu149's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/263023/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/137154-what-type-of-a-corner-is-the-economy-turning?source=feed#comment-501135 501135
However, there is a difference between looking at past data to determine the next trend than thoroughly analyze what is happening around us and reasonably predict what will happen next.

My view is that this type of recession will ultimately cause another next leg down in consumption contraction. This will really surprise the market because it is now not expecting that.

]]> Tue, 12 May 2009 17:40:27 -0400
However, there is a difference between looking at past data to determine the next trend than thoroughly analyze what is happening around us and reasonably predict what will happen next.

My view is that this type of recession will ultimately cause another next leg down in consumption contraction. This will really surprise the market because it is now not expecting that.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134020-economic-data-good-news-vs-bad-news?source=feed#comment-483185 483185
1. Consumption has only been declining for a very short period of time (just a few months). Do you think it makes sense that the consumers can quickly recover and lead us out with more consumptions? Or, do you think the temporarily increase of consumption is just a head fake?

2. Notice that recent rise in the market is primarily based on
a. gov't saying that they see "recession is easing"
b. pace of decline has slowed somewhat compared to last year
c. earnings is not as bad in the 1st quarter relative to expectation
d. banks said they are okay.
Do you think the above reason are enough to pull us out?

3. Related to point 2 above.
a. the next 2 to 4 months, it will be important that the true economic data can back up what the gov't is saying. If it doesn't we will head back down very quickly
b. what if pace of decline picks up again or they continue to decline to a lower level?
c. compared to the current top line revenue of many major companies, if top line revenue falls another 10 to 20% from the current level, what will happen to the overall market?
d. regarding the banks, it is very hard to dissect their problems because of the complexity of the balance sheet and how they do their accounting.

I think from May to September, we will see big movement. My view is that we will head back down.]]> Wed, 29 Apr 2009 17:19:29 -0400
1. Consumption has only been declining for a very short period of time (just a few months). Do you think it makes sense that the consumers can quickly recover and lead us out with more consumptions? Or, do you think the temporarily increase of consumption is just a head fake?

2. Notice that recent rise in the market is primarily based on
a. gov't saying that they see "recession is easing"
b. pace of decline has slowed somewhat compared to last year
c. earnings is not as bad in the 1st quarter relative to expectation
d. banks said they are okay.
Do you think the above reason are enough to pull us out?

3. Related to point 2 above.
a. the next 2 to 4 months, it will be important that the true economic data can back up what the gov't is saying. If it doesn't we will head back down very quickly
b. what if pace of decline picks up again or they continue to decline to a lower level?
c. compared to the current top line revenue of many major companies, if top line revenue falls another 10 to 20% from the current level, what will happen to the overall market?
d. regarding the banks, it is very hard to dissect their problems because of the complexity of the balance sheet and how they do their accounting.

I think from May to September, we will see big movement. My view is that we will head back down.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133345-john-hussman-it-s-not-over-yet?source=feed#comment-480068 480068
As an investor, trader, or whatever you call it, I believe you just have to choose a strategy that fits you. You can pick your investing/trading strategy long term, short term, or medium term. It doesn't matter. You just have to have a strategy that you believe it will work.

Personally, I think the real economy won't recover this year, but the stock market may bottom out end of this year or beginning of next year. Again, this is my pick.

There are many surprising element that can kill the market in a matter of months. The two key points are:

1. The market finally got disappointed. What gov't done is not yielding the result that the market wants. In a way, market expect continuance of improvement statistic. But reality is that we will probably see more negative statistics once again.

2. This is a question you will need to ask yourself. Why does a slow down pace in decline means the next movement is automatically UP? What if the pace of decline is just temporarily slowing down and then falls again to another level? My theory is that declination doesn't have to be a straight line. We will probably see another wave of consumer spending pulling back starting very soon especially due to the continuous unemployment, over-leverage, + credit line cuts. This will affect the stock market tremendously.

Overall, I am expecting a major pull back in the stock market. Perhaps dow below 6000 by September.]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2009 19:00:23 -0400
As an investor, trader, or whatever you call it, I believe you just have to choose a strategy that fits you. You can pick your investing/trading strategy long term, short term, or medium term. It doesn't matter. You just have to have a strategy that you believe it will work.

Personally, I think the real economy won't recover this year, but the stock market may bottom out end of this year or beginning of next year. Again, this is my pick.

There are many surprising element that can kill the market in a matter of months. The two key points are:

1. The market finally got disappointed. What gov't done is not yielding the result that the market wants. In a way, market expect continuance of improvement statistic. But reality is that we will probably see more negative statistics once again.

2. This is a question you will need to ask yourself. Why does a slow down pace in decline means the next movement is automatically UP? What if the pace of decline is just temporarily slowing down and then falls again to another level? My theory is that declination doesn't have to be a straight line. We will probably see another wave of consumer spending pulling back starting very soon especially due to the continuous unemployment, over-leverage, + credit line cuts. This will affect the stock market tremendously.

Overall, I am expecting a major pull back in the stock market. Perhaps dow below 6000 by September.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131518-weekly-observations-even-with-government-intervention-deflation-risks-continue?source=feed#comment-467200 467200 Fri, 17 Apr 2009 19:23:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127937-credit-card-crunch-creating-a-new-generation-of-subprime?source=feed#comment-440607 440607 Thu, 26 Mar 2009 05:32:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123732-bank-delinquency-rates-lower-than-in-previous-recessions?source=feed#comment-439199 439199 Wed, 25 Mar 2009 05:11:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99643-history-says-that-we-ll-be-fine?source=feed#comment-281721 281721
This time, the financial crisis is actually not limited to the financial companies. I think it makes more sense to believe that the crisis has a lot more reach, and therefore should be more severe and long lasting. This bubble has created a false sense of wealthiness. For the past 20 years, how much growth in the economy was actually engineered by borrowed funds instead of real spending power? If your financial leverage has now being drastically diminished, can the economy really keep up the growth. For the United states, this means that you are expecting the Americans to still spend more than previous years. In order for us to recover, you have to believe that the American spending habits will only temporarily weakens, and then pick up the steam later. However, if you believe the American spending habits will weaken for a prolong period, then simply put it, we won't recover soon.

To gain knowledge and insight, I believe all of us should spend time in seeing what is happening around us at the current moment. Don't just always look back at pass incidents.]]> Mon, 13 Oct 2008 20:43:35 -0400
This time, the financial crisis is actually not limited to the financial companies. I think it makes more sense to believe that the crisis has a lot more reach, and therefore should be more severe and long lasting. This bubble has created a false sense of wealthiness. For the past 20 years, how much growth in the economy was actually engineered by borrowed funds instead of real spending power? If your financial leverage has now being drastically diminished, can the economy really keep up the growth. For the United states, this means that you are expecting the Americans to still spend more than previous years. In order for us to recover, you have to believe that the American spending habits will only temporarily weakens, and then pick up the steam later. However, if you believe the American spending habits will weaken for a prolong period, then simply put it, we won't recover soon.

To gain knowledge and insight, I believe all of us should spend time in seeing what is happening around us at the current moment. Don't just always look back at pass incidents.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99727-julian-robertson-some-buying-but-bearish-on-the-economy?source=feed#comment-281628 281628
I will say that consumer spending retrenchment will be worse than many expected in the upcoming months and quarters. This is what will take the Dow again to the 7000 range.
]]> Mon, 13 Oct 2008 18:01:36 -0400
I will say that consumer spending retrenchment will be worse than many expected in the upcoming months and quarters. This is what will take the Dow again to the 7000 range.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98466-still-bullish-on-rimm-cramer-s-lightning-round-10-6-08?source=feed#comment-275332 275332
Too bad he's not always wrong. If so, i can just bet on the other way.

]]> Mon, 06 Oct 2008 23:47:17 -0400
Too bad he's not always wrong. If so, i can just bet on the other way.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98459-the-die-is-cast?source=feed#comment-273072 273072
I believe when you see a great deal of companies report "same stores sales growth" are negative, then the system is probably in the cleaning process.]]> Fri, 03 Oct 2008 17:53:25 -0400
I believe when you see a great deal of companies report "same stores sales growth" are negative, then the system is probably in the cleaning process.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98051-buffett-puts-money-to-work-buys-general-electric-preferred-stock?source=feed#comment-270724 270724
Afterall, I don't think his approach is really calling a bottom in Wall Street. He only loses if Goldman and GE defaults and these are very unlikely. At the same time he guarantees himself a very good yield. I think Mr. Buffett also wants to do his part in helping the US economy. If he doesn't make a move to help out good companies like GE and Goldman, there are not too many investors who can.


]]> Wed, 01 Oct 2008 15:36:40 -0400
Afterall, I don't think his approach is really calling a bottom in Wall Street. He only loses if Goldman and GE defaults and these are very unlikely. At the same time he guarantees himself a very good yield. I think Mr. Buffett also wants to do his part in helping the US economy. If he doesn't make a move to help out good companies like GE and Goldman, there are not too many investors who can.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97928-the-main-street-wall-street-bout-round-two?source=feed#comment-270049 270049 Tue, 30 Sep 2008 20:45:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97548-horrid-data-housing-jobs-durable-goods?source=feed#comment-266537 266537 Fri, 26 Sep 2008 20:43:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97201-as-credit-markets-crash-will-equities-follow?source=feed#comment-265346 265346 Thu, 25 Sep 2008 20:01:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97389-why-it-s-time-for-muni-bonds?source=feed#comment-265293 265293
Your made a correlation that the US Gov't debt may become less save, and therefore, we should go buy more Muni state debt? I don't find that relationship make sense. If the US, as a country, has trouble in its debt issue, you wouldn't want to buy the munis too..... Think of it as a tree. If the tree's trunk has problem, ultimately it will affect the branches. ]]> Thu, 25 Sep 2008 18:21:50 -0400
Your made a correlation that the US Gov't debt may become less save, and therefore, we should go buy more Muni state debt? I don't find that relationship make sense. If the US, as a country, has trouble in its debt issue, you wouldn't want to buy the munis too..... Think of it as a tree. If the tree's trunk has problem, ultimately it will affect the branches. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94384-pondering-the-pain-of-paying?source=feed#comment-260491 260491 Sun, 21 Sep 2008 05:56:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/96032-a-flight-to-safety-but-what-s-safe-now?source=feed#comment-257677 257677 I just don’t think Treasuries are the definition of “quality” when they represent the financial condition of this country with its deteriorating tax base, its overleveraged consumer, its increasingly unemployed workforce working in lower quality jobs, its devaluing real estate, its trade deficits, its budget deficits, its excessive government spending, its expanding and underfunded social programs

Before we didn't have a trigger that made us worry about all the above. Is the financial credit crisis a the trigger? If it triggered foreign entities not buying our debt leading a prolonged devaluation of USD, this will be a big problem. Ofcourse, we all can see that US is not heading the right direction w/ the amount that we spent. USD solely based on the faith of the US Government. Nothing to back up. But for so long, we didn't have a trigger point that made people scare. Are we at that point now? You won't be able to imagine what can happen when an import dependent country encounter a prolong devaluation of its currency.]]> Thu, 18 Sep 2008 02:43:35 -0400 I just don’t think Treasuries are the definition of “quality” when they represent the financial condition of this country with its deteriorating tax base, its overleveraged consumer, its increasingly unemployed workforce working in lower quality jobs, its devaluing real estate, its trade deficits, its budget deficits, its excessive government spending, its expanding and underfunded social programs

Before we didn't have a trigger that made us worry about all the above. Is the financial credit crisis a the trigger? If it triggered foreign entities not buying our debt leading a prolonged devaluation of USD, this will be a big problem. Ofcourse, we all can see that US is not heading the right direction w/ the amount that we spent. USD solely based on the faith of the US Government. Nothing to back up. But for so long, we didn't have a trigger point that made people scare. Are we at that point now? You won't be able to imagine what can happen when an import dependent country encounter a prolong devaluation of its currency.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95559-lehman-s-collapse-broader-economic-damage-unlikely?source=feed#comment-255460 255460 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 22:03:00 -0400