David Lentz's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/26325/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/161408-sunpower-s-rose-how-important-is-high-efficiency-in-pv?source=feed#comment-677725 677725
In many areas supplied by Duke Energy, they adopt the policy of welcoming customer-generated electricity -- so long as it does not exceed the amount the consumer is purchasing. It will "bank" excess electricity credits, but will never, ever send out a check to the consumer to pay for the excess electricity generated, at any rate of compensation. All that the PV customer is permitted to do is reduce, but not exceed their own electricity consumption. Duke regards itself primarily as a supplier of electricity, and not at all as a broker of electricity. Their customers have no incentive whatsoever to invest in sufficient capacity to generate more electricity than they use. Such policies have the effect of scaling back homeowner investments to the level of supporting electric vehicle recharging, or reduction of the electricity draw during peak load periods.

OTOH, if a homeowner's goal is to get completely off the grid, using it either not at all or only as a backup after whatever energy storage facilities they invest in are depleted, then the profile of how much they are willing to invest in a PV system changes a lot. But I suspect that most will fall into the supplementary power only category, at least until regulatory agencies force the utilities to accept roles as electricity brokers and not just electricity producers.]]> Tue, 15 Sep 2009 12:47:55 -0400
In many areas supplied by Duke Energy, they adopt the policy of welcoming customer-generated electricity -- so long as it does not exceed the amount the consumer is purchasing. It will "bank" excess electricity credits, but will never, ever send out a check to the consumer to pay for the excess electricity generated, at any rate of compensation. All that the PV customer is permitted to do is reduce, but not exceed their own electricity consumption. Duke regards itself primarily as a supplier of electricity, and not at all as a broker of electricity. Their customers have no incentive whatsoever to invest in sufficient capacity to generate more electricity than they use. Such policies have the effect of scaling back homeowner investments to the level of supporting electric vehicle recharging, or reduction of the electricity draw during peak load periods.

OTOH, if a homeowner's goal is to get completely off the grid, using it either not at all or only as a backup after whatever energy storage facilities they invest in are depleted, then the profile of how much they are willing to invest in a PV system changes a lot. But I suspect that most will fall into the supplementary power only category, at least until regulatory agencies force the utilities to accept roles as electricity brokers and not just electricity producers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161063-options-trader-friday-outlook-up-up-and-away?source=feed#comment-673337 673337
The United States of Bananamerica is now saddled with a mountain of debt that is simply unbelievable to those who understand what numbers with 12 zeroes before the decimal point imply. Unemployment seems to be fixed at the current levels for several years to come -- no one can truthfully point to a date when the number of jobs will increase, as a declining number of jobs has been our national trend for many years now.

And IF it should be the case that this recent turbulence was due to specific causes, and NOT "just a random fluctuation in the markets", what has changed to prevent the exact same thing from occurring next year, next month, next week, or on Monday? Have the banksters pulled back from the brink and are now using smaller amounts of leverage? Nope. Are they shying away from the ultra-high-leverage CDS casino? Not a chance -- they are rolling the dice to gamble their way out of their pit of toxic losses. Have they at least brought compensation in line with performance? (Don't make me laugh)

In a consumer-driven economy, how does it manage to grow when unemployment seems anchored at the current levels for as far as the eye can see? When residential mortgages continue to be devoured in a firestorm of foreclosures, that the goobermint seems to have not the slightest inclination to address? And how are small businesses, the bedrock of our commercial economy, to survive when CRE has a problem similar to the residential real estate markets, and they are unable to pry operating capital loose from the grip of the banksters?

None of this indicates in any what, shape or form that traders cannot manage a decent living. Just don't expect a rip-roaring bull market that has any degree of momentum or underlying substance to it. Things can and will turn on a dime.]]> Sat, 12 Sep 2009 10:40:14 -0400
The United States of Bananamerica is now saddled with a mountain of debt that is simply unbelievable to those who understand what numbers with 12 zeroes before the decimal point imply. Unemployment seems to be fixed at the current levels for several years to come -- no one can truthfully point to a date when the number of jobs will increase, as a declining number of jobs has been our national trend for many years now.

And IF it should be the case that this recent turbulence was due to specific causes, and NOT "just a random fluctuation in the markets", what has changed to prevent the exact same thing from occurring next year, next month, next week, or on Monday? Have the banksters pulled back from the brink and are now using smaller amounts of leverage? Nope. Are they shying away from the ultra-high-leverage CDS casino? Not a chance -- they are rolling the dice to gamble their way out of their pit of toxic losses. Have they at least brought compensation in line with performance? (Don't make me laugh)

In a consumer-driven economy, how does it manage to grow when unemployment seems anchored at the current levels for as far as the eye can see? When residential mortgages continue to be devoured in a firestorm of foreclosures, that the goobermint seems to have not the slightest inclination to address? And how are small businesses, the bedrock of our commercial economy, to survive when CRE has a problem similar to the residential real estate markets, and they are unable to pry operating capital loose from the grip of the banksters?

None of this indicates in any what, shape or form that traders cannot manage a decent living. Just don't expect a rip-roaring bull market that has any degree of momentum or underlying substance to it. Things can and will turn on a dime.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159957-postal-service-set-to-lead-the-way-in-deploying-electric-fleet?source=feed#comment-661886 661886 Fri, 04 Sep 2009 11:45:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159829-is-the-iphone-slowing-at-t-s-network?source=feed#comment-661858 661858
Or the alternative view,

"Is AT&T's feeble attempt at a broadband cellular network inadequate to the task?"

Either way, we are looking at the same coin. In a static, regulated-market-share market, AT&T could merely raise prices on its unlimited data plan (or raise prices on other parts of its network, milking its captive landline customers, for instance). But in a competitve marketplace, AT&T must either beef up the services it is selling or lose market share.

If losing market share to Blackberry, Android phones, and the Palm Pre is not satisfactory to Apple, they have only one choice -- expand the iPhone empire to other carriers.

I suspect that at this point, it is beyond the capabilities of AT&T to beef up its networks fast enough to stem the rise of competing smartphone market shares, and that means Apple will open up iPhone distribution.

Same theme as the above article. I'm not as confident that the first non-AT&T iPhone carrier will be Verizon, it will instead be whomever offers the best deal on coverage (subscribers) + bandwidth + iPhone subsidies. It could easily be T-Mobile (except for the part about subscribers), or (my favorite alternative) Apple could simply buy its own carrier.

Sprint looks ripe for the picking, especially with its beachhead in WiMAX. Apple could easily buy Sprint with a cash+stock offer.]]> Fri, 04 Sep 2009 11:35:12 -0400
Or the alternative view,

"Is AT&T's feeble attempt at a broadband cellular network inadequate to the task?"

Either way, we are looking at the same coin. In a static, regulated-market-share market, AT&T could merely raise prices on its unlimited data plan (or raise prices on other parts of its network, milking its captive landline customers, for instance). But in a competitve marketplace, AT&T must either beef up the services it is selling or lose market share.

If losing market share to Blackberry, Android phones, and the Palm Pre is not satisfactory to Apple, they have only one choice -- expand the iPhone empire to other carriers.

I suspect that at this point, it is beyond the capabilities of AT&T to beef up its networks fast enough to stem the rise of competing smartphone market shares, and that means Apple will open up iPhone distribution.

Same theme as the above article. I'm not as confident that the first non-AT&T iPhone carrier will be Verizon, it will instead be whomever offers the best deal on coverage (subscribers) + bandwidth + iPhone subsidies. It could easily be T-Mobile (except for the part about subscribers), or (my favorite alternative) Apple could simply buy its own carrier.

Sprint looks ripe for the picking, especially with its beachhead in WiMAX. Apple could easily buy Sprint with a cash+stock offer.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159145-balance-sheet-wars-u-s-solar-companies-vs-chinese-government?source=feed#comment-654419 654419 Mon, 31 Aug 2009 09:29:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159069-prospects-for-electric-cars?source=feed#comment-654406 654406
Why drill, when there is oil (and natural gas) filling every available storage facility on the planet, with wells being shut down (and refineries soon to follow) in order to keep retail prices high.

get a clue -- not a slogan


On Aug 31 08:12 AM BlueOkie wrote:

> We sure spend a lot of time finding a means to NOT drill for oil.
> How do you produce electricity? NG, Coal, etc.
> What about brown outs if everyone goes to the electric car? What
> happens to the batteries when they are not longer useable? Dump them
> where? I'm not sure people have thought this thru yet. Electric
> cars/ vehicles do have a place but not for the general public yet.
> 240 mile range is a joke in some parts of the country. It is not
> as if you have a electric gas station everywhere. Maybe a few wind
> farms will help.
> Drill baby, drill.]]> Mon, 31 Aug 2009 09:22:44 -0400
Why drill, when there is oil (and natural gas) filling every available storage facility on the planet, with wells being shut down (and refineries soon to follow) in order to keep retail prices high.

get a clue -- not a slogan


On Aug 31 08:12 AM BlueOkie wrote:

> We sure spend a lot of time finding a means to NOT drill for oil.
> How do you produce electricity? NG, Coal, etc.
> What about brown outs if everyone goes to the electric car? What
> happens to the batteries when they are not longer useable? Dump them
> where? I'm not sure people have thought this thru yet. Electric
> cars/ vehicles do have a place but not for the general public yet.
> 240 mile range is a joke in some parts of the country. It is not
> as if you have a electric gas station everywhere. Maybe a few wind
> farms will help.
> Drill baby, drill.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153029-at-t-apple-can-t-win-fight-against-voip?source=feed#comment-611543 611543
If/when that happens, ATT will use every trick in its (very large) book of bribery and political influence to block it. But eventually, ATT will face genuine competition, if not from Google or Verizon, then from a foreign telecom company willing to spend the money to install technology that is far superior to the penny-pinching inadequate band-aids that ATT touts as being "technology".

Wireless makes it easy to put up a national network in a very short time that negates the 50-year-old copper infrastructure (plus a little fiber) that ATT continues to milk for all its worth, all the while charging some of the highest rates on the globe to its captive customers.

On Aug 01 05:17 PM nmelendez wrote:

> When Google comes out with it's own network plus apps, Apple and
> AT&T are gonna be toast. An i am not even mentioning sprint,
> palm and vonage.]]> Sun, 02 Aug 2009 11:50:58 -0400
If/when that happens, ATT will use every trick in its (very large) book of bribery and political influence to block it. But eventually, ATT will face genuine competition, if not from Google or Verizon, then from a foreign telecom company willing to spend the money to install technology that is far superior to the penny-pinching inadequate band-aids that ATT touts as being "technology".

Wireless makes it easy to put up a national network in a very short time that negates the 50-year-old copper infrastructure (plus a little fiber) that ATT continues to milk for all its worth, all the while charging some of the highest rates on the globe to its captive customers.

On Aug 01 05:17 PM nmelendez wrote:

> When Google comes out with it's own network plus apps, Apple and
> AT&T are gonna be toast. An i am not even mentioning sprint,
> palm and vonage.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153029-at-t-apple-can-t-win-fight-against-voip?source=feed#comment-611527 611527

On Aug 02 10:35 AM daniel3582 wrote:

> Am I missing something here? Didn't ATT spend years and years
> and tens of billions of dollars to build a wireless network from
> the ground up? What right does Google or the US government have to
> come in and tell them what to do with it?
>
> I'm really searching for a good answer here... feedback appreciated.]]> Sun, 02 Aug 2009 11:40:53 -0400

On Aug 02 10:35 AM daniel3582 wrote:

> Am I missing something here? Didn't ATT spend years and years
> and tens of billions of dollars to build a wireless network from
> the ground up? What right does Google or the US government have to
> come in and tell them what to do with it?
>
> I'm really searching for a good answer here... feedback appreciated.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149173-bonds-signal-fed-should-start-raising-rates-soon?source=feed#comment-590780 590780
So long as the economy continues to shrink, with retail sales trending lower and unemployment higher, deflation is still alive and well in the economy. It may not be the roaring force that it was a while ago, but it is by no means dead. If it were, we would see gold quickly jump past 1000 and head skywards. But when we look at the broader monetary aggregates, we see M2 (and if you look at shadowstats.com, the reconstituted M3) trending lower.

Deflation isn't dead, it's just catching its breath. For the Fed to kill deflation, they would have to either print so much money that they would also kill the dollar, or else they would have to go after the banksters, and erase the hoard of toxic debt (masked by the mark-to-model rule) via bankruptcy. Neither seems likely to occur.]]> Thu, 16 Jul 2009 14:03:47 -0400
So long as the economy continues to shrink, with retail sales trending lower and unemployment higher, deflation is still alive and well in the economy. It may not be the roaring force that it was a while ago, but it is by no means dead. If it were, we would see gold quickly jump past 1000 and head skywards. But when we look at the broader monetary aggregates, we see M2 (and if you look at shadowstats.com, the reconstituted M3) trending lower.

Deflation isn't dead, it's just catching its breath. For the Fed to kill deflation, they would have to either print so much money that they would also kill the dollar, or else they would have to go after the banksters, and erase the hoard of toxic debt (masked by the mark-to-model rule) via bankruptcy. Neither seems likely to occur.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113622-jack-lifton-the-technology-metals-age?source=feed#comment-349198 349198
And what's that about electric motors in cellphones? ("everything that’s got a small motor in it (a cell phone, Blackberry, etc.)" ???)

They might have some small magnets somewhere in them, but not the kind that contain the materials that this article is about. Motors in cellphones?

Also, there are several photovoltaic solar technologies, not all of them require the materials mentioned here. The point is that there will be alternatives to many of these predicted scarcities, so they may not be the opportunities they are presented to be.

I know of no alternative to the neodymium used in motors and generators, but that does not mean that there is not one, or that one will not be discovered. The point is that you have to be really on top of these materials scarcities issues, aware of alternative technologies and watching for new alternatives.

To reiterate -- a nice article describing a likely future, with few useful ways to invest in it.]]> Wed, 07 Jan 2009 20:24:16 -0500
And what's that about electric motors in cellphones? ("everything that’s got a small motor in it (a cell phone, Blackberry, etc.)" ???)

They might have some small magnets somewhere in them, but not the kind that contain the materials that this article is about. Motors in cellphones?

Also, there are several photovoltaic solar technologies, not all of them require the materials mentioned here. The point is that there will be alternatives to many of these predicted scarcities, so they may not be the opportunities they are presented to be.

I know of no alternative to the neodymium used in motors and generators, but that does not mean that there is not one, or that one will not be discovered. The point is that you have to be really on top of these materials scarcities issues, aware of alternative technologies and watching for new alternatives.

To reiterate -- a nice article describing a likely future, with few useful ways to invest in it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112450-2009-expecting-a-massive-rally?source=feed#comment-341289 341289
What is your target stance heading into this rally? I.e., what is your recommended equity-bonds-cash allocation?

It's one thing to move from a 100% cash position to a 20% equity, 80% cash position, and something quite different to move from a 10% stock, 40% bonds, 50% cash position to a 60% stocks, 40% bonds position.

What kind of allocation changes are you proposing here?

Personally, I don't believe that the markets move randomly, the tides in the markets are a reflection of the monetary tides at work in the economy. I see zero possibility of any significant improvement in the economy, as unemployment continues to crank up in pace with a continually shrinking global economy. The dollar is about at the end of its ability to support the deficit borrowing by the state, and we are seeing not just corporations and a corrupt finance sector imploding, but now whole states are on the brink of fiscal collapse.

If there were a ray of hope somewhere, something to indicate that we had at least reached (or even approached) rock bottom, then yes, I could see a "tradeable rally" before the markets took their next step down.

But the fact is, the economy of the 1930s got its big half-time rally when the debt overhang fueling the boom collapsed, a LOT of companies and banks imploded, and people thought the worst was over. It was only after they saw that the economy was continuing to shrink (deflation at work!) that the steam ran out of that rally.

In our current situation, the debt bubble has not yet begun to deflate -- not even a little, despite all the mortgage failures and (non-bank) corporate bankruptcies. The Fed and Treasury have simply been too adroit at preventing any of the hot air inflating our debt balloon from escaping, creating new debt even faster than bad debt has imploded. We now stand at a total debt-to-GDP ratio of about 3.6, as compared to 2.6 at the peak of the debt bubble at the start of the Great Depression. BTW -- their "tradeable rally" did not occur until after their debt bubble popped, perhaps in part due to assets fleeing crashing debt instruments.

Our deflation continues, and the global and national economies continue to shrink. The pressure is mounting on our own debt bubble.

Somehow, I can't see a lengthy period of relative stability wherein stocks could rally. Maybe an inauguration honeymoon Obama rally, up until the unemployment continues to soar, past 10% (U3), and many companies begin to go bankrupt, with the economy no longer large enough to support them all. The Fed is down to being able to only print money, driving rates lower is not an option. That will undoubtedly lead to inflation, and countering the deflation as designed. But with a beaten and broken consumer demographic, we are not going to see jobless millions thronging to the malls to celebrate, buying up the few rapidly-increasing-in-... goods that remain. Combating inflation by raising rates will carry a (too-steep) price in terms of additional unemployment, so the Fed is going to be helpless and we will finally see our debt overhang begin to erode away, with bonds failing along with the companies, municipalities, and states that have issued them and are unable to service their debt.

Stagflation will be the only item on our economic menu for a couple of decades (maybe more) to come. And while we will certainly get small rallies along the way, I seriously doubt that any of them will last more than a quarter.

Happy New Year.]]> Tue, 30 Dec 2008 08:57:01 -0500
What is your target stance heading into this rally? I.e., what is your recommended equity-bonds-cash allocation?

It's one thing to move from a 100% cash position to a 20% equity, 80% cash position, and something quite different to move from a 10% stock, 40% bonds, 50% cash position to a 60% stocks, 40% bonds position.

What kind of allocation changes are you proposing here?

Personally, I don't believe that the markets move randomly, the tides in the markets are a reflection of the monetary tides at work in the economy. I see zero possibility of any significant improvement in the economy, as unemployment continues to crank up in pace with a continually shrinking global economy. The dollar is about at the end of its ability to support the deficit borrowing by the state, and we are seeing not just corporations and a corrupt finance sector imploding, but now whole states are on the brink of fiscal collapse.

If there were a ray of hope somewhere, something to indicate that we had at least reached (or even approached) rock bottom, then yes, I could see a "tradeable rally" before the markets took their next step down.

But the fact is, the economy of the 1930s got its big half-time rally when the debt overhang fueling the boom collapsed, a LOT of companies and banks imploded, and people thought the worst was over. It was only after they saw that the economy was continuing to shrink (deflation at work!) that the steam ran out of that rally.

In our current situation, the debt bubble has not yet begun to deflate -- not even a little, despite all the mortgage failures and (non-bank) corporate bankruptcies. The Fed and Treasury have simply been too adroit at preventing any of the hot air inflating our debt balloon from escaping, creating new debt even faster than bad debt has imploded. We now stand at a total debt-to-GDP ratio of about 3.6, as compared to 2.6 at the peak of the debt bubble at the start of the Great Depression. BTW -- their "tradeable rally" did not occur until after their debt bubble popped, perhaps in part due to assets fleeing crashing debt instruments.

Our deflation continues, and the global and national economies continue to shrink. The pressure is mounting on our own debt bubble.

Somehow, I can't see a lengthy period of relative stability wherein stocks could rally. Maybe an inauguration honeymoon Obama rally, up until the unemployment continues to soar, past 10% (U3), and many companies begin to go bankrupt, with the economy no longer large enough to support them all. The Fed is down to being able to only print money, driving rates lower is not an option. That will undoubtedly lead to inflation, and countering the deflation as designed. But with a beaten and broken consumer demographic, we are not going to see jobless millions thronging to the malls to celebrate, buying up the few rapidly-increasing-in-... goods that remain. Combating inflation by raising rates will carry a (too-steep) price in terms of additional unemployment, so the Fed is going to be helpless and we will finally see our debt overhang begin to erode away, with bonds failing along with the companies, municipalities, and states that have issued them and are unable to service their debt.

Stagflation will be the only item on our economic menu for a couple of decades (maybe more) to come. And while we will certainly get small rallies along the way, I seriously doubt that any of them will last more than a quarter.

Happy New Year.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111898-s-p-500-at-600-is-it-possible?source=feed#comment-336471 336471
I do not know how far down the markets will drop to, but until the debt overhang begins to recede (and it normally does so in cases like this in a very abrupt and painful manner), the direction for the markets remains lower.

We need to lose roughly (no pun intended) half our debt, through some combination of write-downs and pay-downs. But the Fed+Treasury are intent upon trying to inflate the old economy back to its former grandeur instead of managing a graceful national bankruptcy.

That plan won't work. ]]> Tue, 23 Dec 2008 08:59:21 -0500
I do not know how far down the markets will drop to, but until the debt overhang begins to recede (and it normally does so in cases like this in a very abrupt and painful manner), the direction for the markets remains lower.

We need to lose roughly (no pun intended) half our debt, through some combination of write-downs and pay-downs. But the Fed+Treasury are intent upon trying to inflate the old economy back to its former grandeur instead of managing a graceful national bankruptcy.

That plan won't work. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111258-macworld-to-follow-floppy-disk-into-extinction?source=feed#comment-332901 332901
I've thought for years that Apple was nuts to announce new products in January -- instead of just before Thanksgiving. I'm glad to see them making some changes to do away with that practice. I'm sure it was a problem within Apple to target product rollouts to a specific extravaganza in January.

Much better to serve the food as soon as the cooking is done, rather than trying to artificially target a predefined serving time.]]> Thu, 18 Dec 2008 09:05:40 -0500
I've thought for years that Apple was nuts to announce new products in January -- instead of just before Thanksgiving. I'm glad to see them making some changes to do away with that practice. I'm sure it was a problem within Apple to target product rollouts to a specific extravaganza in January.

Much better to serve the food as soon as the cooking is done, rather than trying to artificially target a predefined serving time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108965-the-american-crisis-and-the-case-for-an-inflationary-depression?source=feed#comment-320767 320767
Doesn't this guy read the news?]]> Thu, 04 Dec 2008 11:09:41 -0500
Doesn't this guy read the news?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108564-even-rubin-couldn-t-outmaneuver-risk?source=feed#comment-318712 318712 Tue, 02 Dec 2008 08:38:12 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/107428-apple-falls-flat-as-market-rebounds-is-there-really-investor-confidence?source=feed#comment-313524 313524
Sadly, it appears that the tide is starting to turn for the gold bugs, and the evening air will soon be filled with their shrill cries once more.]]> Mon, 24 Nov 2008 09:15:08 -0500
Sadly, it appears that the tide is starting to turn for the gold bugs, and the evening air will soon be filled with their shrill cries once more.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107428-apple-falls-flat-as-market-rebounds-is-there-really-investor-confidence?source=feed#comment-313517 313517 Mon, 24 Nov 2008 09:11:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/106078-amazon-apple-google-buying-on-the-way-down?source=feed#comment-306639 306639
But determining approximately WHEN a bottom is at hand is A Very Risky Business.

Consider that IF this is truly the collapse of a global credit bubble, and not merely a housing bubble, that the bubble may still be inflating and has not yet exploded. Numbers of the amount Total Credit (government+corporate+... seem to show that it is still expanding, despite the gratuitous implosion of a lot of toxic debt and shrinkage of portions of the debt markets. Apparently, Ben Bernanke and other central bankers, intent on inflating our way out of deflation, have been creating credit at a sufficient rate to create a net expansion of the credit bubble. A pity that most of the credit they have created is being hoarded by those who got the bail-outs.

Imagine if, just as the housing industry is approaching a bottom -- say, sometime in the summer of 2009 as various mortgage restructuring programs build up a head of steam -- and housing prices are within 10% of having bottomed, suppose that the credit bubble finally pops. The most likely sign of that at this point would be a cascading series of sovereign defaults, with the USofA somewhere along the chain.

What do you think AAPL, GOOG and AMZN will be trading for at THAT point? And how long will poor Fred have to hang onto his purchases until they are breaking even? The only way Fred's scheme works is if we have a V-shaped recession, and if we are somewhere close to the inflection point. We could easily have neither of those things be true.

Granted, this is a worst-case scenario. But a better way to attempt value-based investing is by following the tenets of Ben Graham, the way Warren Buffett has tried to do so over the years. That methodology is a MUCH better way to pick entry points for purchases during troubled times.]]> Sat, 15 Nov 2008 09:50:42 -0500
But determining approximately WHEN a bottom is at hand is A Very Risky Business.

Consider that IF this is truly the collapse of a global credit bubble, and not merely a housing bubble, that the bubble may still be inflating and has not yet exploded. Numbers of the amount Total Credit (government+corporate+... seem to show that it is still expanding, despite the gratuitous implosion of a lot of toxic debt and shrinkage of portions of the debt markets. Apparently, Ben Bernanke and other central bankers, intent on inflating our way out of deflation, have been creating credit at a sufficient rate to create a net expansion of the credit bubble. A pity that most of the credit they have created is being hoarded by those who got the bail-outs.

Imagine if, just as the housing industry is approaching a bottom -- say, sometime in the summer of 2009 as various mortgage restructuring programs build up a head of steam -- and housing prices are within 10% of having bottomed, suppose that the credit bubble finally pops. The most likely sign of that at this point would be a cascading series of sovereign defaults, with the USofA somewhere along the chain.

What do you think AAPL, GOOG and AMZN will be trading for at THAT point? And how long will poor Fred have to hang onto his purchases until they are breaking even? The only way Fred's scheme works is if we have a V-shaped recession, and if we are somewhere close to the inflection point. We could easily have neither of those things be true.

Granted, this is a worst-case scenario. But a better way to attempt value-based investing is by following the tenets of Ben Graham, the way Warren Buffett has tried to do so over the years. That methodology is a MUCH better way to pick entry points for purchases during troubled times.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105915-when-the-going-gets-tough-the-tough-play-defense?source=feed#comment-305972 305972
I've seen some disturbing stuff that indicates the debt-to-GDP ratio was still rising as late as August. Now possibly, this is due to the GDP imploding faster than the debt, but the numbers seem to indicate that the Fed+Treasury are pumping out new credit at a sufficient rate so as to keep the totals rising in absolute terms.

I'm wondering if you have seen anything similar (or anything that contradicts this, which just seems insane to me), and if so, what you make of it?]]> Fri, 14 Nov 2008 09:42:05 -0500
I've seen some disturbing stuff that indicates the debt-to-GDP ratio was still rising as late as August. Now possibly, this is due to the GDP imploding faster than the debt, but the numbers seem to indicate that the Fed+Treasury are pumping out new credit at a sufficient rate so as to keep the totals rising in absolute terms.

I'm wondering if you have seen anything similar (or anything that contradicts this, which just seems insane to me), and if so, what you make of it?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105778-more-uncertainty-try-ultra-etfs?source=feed#comment-305066 305066
:-)]]> Thu, 13 Nov 2008 10:17:16 -0500
:-)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105786-risks-remain-but-iphone-s-fundamentals-should-help-apple-surpass-expectations-rbc-analyst?source=feed#comment-305060 305060
That said, the traffic at this particular Apple Store on that particular day was the lowest I have ever seen, with about 2/3 to 3/4 of the floor space being unoccupied (as opposed to the 10%-20% that is the norm). Not many were exiting the store with purchases. I plan to check again on Black Friday.

My guess is that Apple will see a modest (25%, maybe 35% worst-case) drop off in sales volume on a year-over-year basis in the next two quarters. That will move it even farther away from the rest of the consumer electronics field, as nearly all of the rest are going to be struggling to turn a profit. And I suspect that Apple's emphasis on the consumer, rather than the corporate markets, is going to serve them well, as I doubt that ANY corporations are going to be refreshing their PCs for a couple of years. Consumers will do the irrational thing and blow their last paycheck (literally) on iPhones. HPQ is gonna get hurt, big-time. And Dell just might be extinguished.]]> Thu, 13 Nov 2008 10:12:55 -0500
That said, the traffic at this particular Apple Store on that particular day was the lowest I have ever seen, with about 2/3 to 3/4 of the floor space being unoccupied (as opposed to the 10%-20% that is the norm). Not many were exiting the store with purchases. I plan to check again on Black Friday.

My guess is that Apple will see a modest (25%, maybe 35% worst-case) drop off in sales volume on a year-over-year basis in the next two quarters. That will move it even farther away from the rest of the consumer electronics field, as nearly all of the rest are going to be struggling to turn a profit. And I suspect that Apple's emphasis on the consumer, rather than the corporate markets, is going to serve them well, as I doubt that ANY corporations are going to be refreshing their PCs for a couple of years. Consumers will do the irrational thing and blow their last paycheck (literally) on iPhones. HPQ is gonna get hurt, big-time. And Dell just might be extinguished.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105520-general-electric-moves-on-down-the-largest-company-list?source=feed#comment-303925 303925
If one looks at these in terms of industry groups (financials, manufacturing, consumer staples, etc), there is a clear rotation. Again, this isn;t exactly news either, but it's a nice way to quantify the sector rotation.]]> Wed, 12 Nov 2008 09:24:26 -0500
If one looks at these in terms of industry groups (financials, manufacturing, consumer staples, etc), there is a clear rotation. Again, this isn;t exactly news either, but it's a nice way to quantify the sector rotation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105060-will-apple-s-q1-2009-revenue-estimates-be-a-blowout?source=feed#comment-302990 302990
Maybe robust iPhone sales can propel the comply to exceed analysts expectations.

Prolly a Good Idea to hang around a local Apple Store over Thanksgiving weekend and see how many people are exiting the store with new purchases.

Rampant enthusiasm for stocks -- any stock -- tends to tell me that we have a long way lower to fall.

Full disclosure -- I may be buying a couple of new Macs in January, depending on what they announce at MacExpo and what the pricing is like.]]> Tue, 11 Nov 2008 11:05:37 -0500
Maybe robust iPhone sales can propel the comply to exceed analysts expectations.

Prolly a Good Idea to hang around a local Apple Store over Thanksgiving weekend and see how many people are exiting the store with new purchases.

Rampant enthusiasm for stocks -- any stock -- tends to tell me that we have a long way lower to fall.

Full disclosure -- I may be buying a couple of new Macs in January, depending on what they announce at MacExpo and what the pricing is like.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/103961-triple-levered-etfs-bomb-shelters-or-bomb-making-kits?source=feed#comment-298638 298638 Wed, 05 Nov 2008 10:32:08 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/102194-apple-could-crush-competitors-with-a-99-iphone?source=feed#comment-292244 292244
When you figure out how Apple can make 30% margins on a $99 iPhone, then you will see it happen -- but chances are, Apple will figure out how to do that before you do.

I know that they will NOT get there by stripping out functionality.]]> Tue, 28 Oct 2008 08:28:41 -0400
When you figure out how Apple can make 30% margins on a $99 iPhone, then you will see it happen -- but chances are, Apple will figure out how to do that before you do.

I know that they will NOT get there by stripping out functionality.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100163-final-presidential-debate-the-wurzelbacher-falls?source=feed#comment-283661 283661 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 11:02:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/100142-gold-has-significantly-outperformed-can-this-continue-indefinitely?source=feed#comment-283655 283655
Gold is of zero value as a hedge against deflation.]]> Thu, 16 Oct 2008 10:56:21 -0400
Gold is of zero value as a hedge against deflation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100167-how-low-will-apple-go?source=feed#comment-283604 283604
Don't count on the Christmas quarter being anything at all like the preceding 3 quarters, and the one after that will be worse still. I like AAPL, but there's no point in foolish expectations. I'll buy in when I see consumers returning to the stores.

Also, the lowball earnings guidance should set new lows -- it will be interesting to see how Oppenheimer pitches the guidance next week.]]> Thu, 16 Oct 2008 10:03:31 -0400
Don't count on the Christmas quarter being anything at all like the preceding 3 quarters, and the one after that will be worse still. I like AAPL, but there's no point in foolish expectations. I'll buy in when I see consumers returning to the stores.

Also, the lowball earnings guidance should set new lows -- it will be interesting to see how Oppenheimer pitches the guidance next week.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99112-deflation-changes-the-rules?source=feed#comment-277645 277645 how could Google buy AT&T and still keep its corporate motto?]]> Thu, 09 Oct 2008 09:33:25 -0400 how could Google buy AT&T and still keep its corporate motto?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98993-awaiting-apple-earnings-and-guidance?source=feed#comment-276949 276949 Wed, 08 Oct 2008 12:21:20 -0400