David Lentz

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

I like the notion of adding Canada as well -- it's a lot closer to most of use culturally and economically than a lot of the other foreign ETFs. Of course, maybe that makes the S&P or Russell indices close enough to not need it. I dunno.

Is the Bull Run in Commodities Over?

"A fundamental truth of commodities is that they fluctuate about a mean. If demand exceeds supply, ultimately a new mine opens and supply then exceeds demand."

But what about the demand side of the equation? Sure, it's a bit depressed at the moment, but if you look at the global population growth <upload.wikimedia.org/w...;, you can see nothing but increasing demand ratcheting commodity prices ever-higher.

The "mean" that commodity prices fluctuate about is being pulled upward by rocketing population growth. The green revolution and development of antibiotics has created a situation where demand is soaring, at rates far beyond our capabilities to increase supplies to match.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

seems to me there's a lotta bears in the audience today.

prolly means a run-up to quicken their heartbeats.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

dukeb: There is more than the differing rate stances that distinguishes the US from the EU. The US has a history of deficits (budgetary, trade, planning, mental) that makes it stand out and assume the role of the tail rather than the dog.

Just the ginormous debt balances leave our ability to influence rates at perilously low levels, and give the debt holders (and future takers of junk US Treasury debt) a lot to say about what we do, just as the creditors of credit card junkies have a lot to say about how they live their lives.

Given that, I would think that the Chinese would have a lot more to say about our rate policies than the EU. I didn't think that the EU had that great of share of our foreign debt -- although they might be the entity that Uncle Sam has the best hope of being bailed out by.

Whomever is going to be pulling the Fed's chain, I just wish they would throw a rock with a note attached through the windows at the Fed, and tell them in no uncertain terms STOP INFLATING NOW!

Things are quite bad enough with our double dose of imported price inflation without making things worse by stoking monetary inflation as well.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

dukeb: There is more than the differing rate stances that distinguishes the US from the EU. The US has a history of deficits (budgetary, trade, planning, mental) that makes it stand out and assume the role of the tail rather than the dog.

Just the ginormous debt balances leave our ability to influence rates at perilously low levels, and give the debt holders (and future takers of junk US Treasury debt) a lot to say about what we do, just as the creditors of credit card junkies have a lot to say about how they live their lives.

Given that, I would think that the Chinese would have a lot more to say about our rate policies than the EU. I didn't think that the EU had that great of share of our foreign debt -- although they might be the entity that Uncle Sam has the best hope of being bailed out by.

Whomever is going to be pulling the Fed's chain, I just wish they would throw a rock with a note attached through the windows at the Fed, and tell them in no uncertain terms STOP INFLATING NOW!

Things are quite bad enough with our double dose of imported price inflation without making things worse by stoking monetary inflation as well.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Never apologize for the occasional rant -- especially when they're as insightful as yours are. You are correct though -- it's hard to make money when one's emotions are wrapped around the drive shaft and your head keeps hitting the pavement.