No Free Cake's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/263461/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175321-bond-and-stock-price-returns-vs-total-returns?source=feed#comment-778285 778285
DVY's underperformance shouldn't indict a dividend strategy in general or other dividend stock products that were more balanced. It's a good lesson learned about highly concentrated portfolios - but not dividend stocks.]]> Thu, 26 Nov 2009 09:16:57 -0500
DVY's underperformance shouldn't indict a dividend strategy in general or other dividend stock products that were more balanced. It's a good lesson learned about highly concentrated portfolios - but not dividend stocks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175215-inflation-worries-here-s-what-we-can-learn-from-japan?source=feed#comment-777141 777141
Several commenters made the point that US companies more dynamically adjust operations for changing conditions. Fair enough.

Basically, the US companies rely on the Fed and State Govts to provide the social safety net and focus on their own earnings. No judgement here - just observation.

However, in Japan the Govt provides less of a safety net and the companies provided this through employee-retention and the like.

In a longer term, the US/State govts must extract money from the citizens and companies to pay for the social services. So, is this a fundamental difference between Japan and US or just a technical accounting one? After all, companies have to support employees directly or pay a government to do it.

How does that operational difference impact the larger macro similarities?]]> Wed, 25 Nov 2009 10:55:46 -0500
Several commenters made the point that US companies more dynamically adjust operations for changing conditions. Fair enough.

Basically, the US companies rely on the Fed and State Govts to provide the social safety net and focus on their own earnings. No judgement here - just observation.

However, in Japan the Govt provides less of a safety net and the companies provided this through employee-retention and the like.

In a longer term, the US/State govts must extract money from the citizens and companies to pay for the social services. So, is this a fundamental difference between Japan and US or just a technical accounting one? After all, companies have to support employees directly or pay a government to do it.

How does that operational difference impact the larger macro similarities?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172773-where-are-the-original-dividend-aristocrats-now?source=feed#comment-758124 758124
Keep in mind that MFs and ETFs generally grow fairly large and thus can only take positions in companies with enough trading activity to satisfy their volume. This means smaller and midsize companies make up a smaller component of an MF/ETF as it grows larger.

If you want to be nimble I"m afraid you'll have to do it yourself. ]]> Thu, 12 Nov 2009 23:58:03 -0500
Keep in mind that MFs and ETFs generally grow fairly large and thus can only take positions in companies with enough trading activity to satisfy their volume. This means smaller and midsize companies make up a smaller component of an MF/ETF as it grows larger.

If you want to be nimble I"m afraid you'll have to do it yourself. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172773-where-are-the-original-dividend-aristocrats-now?source=feed#comment-755993 755993 Wed, 11 Nov 2009 16:22:49 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/172566-the-fed-backed-into-a-corner?source=feed#comment-754405 754405 Tue, 10 Nov 2009 17:28:02 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/171850-10-dividend-stocks-for-enterprising-investors?source=feed#comment-751336 751336 www.gopresto.com/infor...


On Nov 07 10:46 AM User 168560 wrote:

> NPK, National Presto, according to TD Ameritrade and Yahoo Finance
> pays a dividend of $1.00! Not $4.55.]]> Sun, 08 Nov 2009 18:00:16 -0500 www.gopresto.com/infor...


On Nov 07 10:46 AM User 168560 wrote:

> NPK, National Presto, according to TD Ameritrade and Yahoo Finance
> pays a dividend of $1.00! Not $4.55.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170550-nine-companies-increasing-dividends?source=feed#comment-741671 741671
Yahoo says this:
"Middlesex Water Company, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates regulated water utility and wastewater systems in New Jersey and Delaware."

A regulated water utility sounds like, well, a utility. I think of food companies as consumer sector.]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 23:55:07 -0500
Yahoo says this:
"Middlesex Water Company, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates regulated water utility and wastewater systems in New Jersey and Delaware."

A regulated water utility sounds like, well, a utility. I think of food companies as consumer sector.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169823-the-best-trades-could-be-the-ones-not-entered?source=feed#comment-735812 735812
A metric I like is the "Dividend Coverage Ratio" which relates to how well the free cash flow (operating) covers the dividend payment. There are various ways to look at this but suffice it to day that ADP has a much stronger FCF than PAYX.]]> Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:36:27 -0400
A metric I like is the "Dividend Coverage Ratio" which relates to how well the free cash flow (operating) covers the dividend payment. There are various ways to look at this but suffice it to day that ADP has a much stronger FCF than PAYX.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167410-currency-basket-etf-a-portfolio-imperative?source=feed#comment-721454 721454
For something like this would have been nice if you'd mentioned it isn't very liquid. Over the past couple of days this ETF has had periods of 20 minutes where no shares trade hands. Even fairly small orders move the price. Certainly don't use "market" orders with this one.]]> Mon, 19 Oct 2009 22:58:39 -0400
For something like this would have been nice if you'd mentioned it isn't very liquid. Over the past couple of days this ETF has had periods of 20 minutes where no shares trade hands. Even fairly small orders move the price. Certainly don't use "market" orders with this one.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165989-four-stocks-rewarding-investors-with-dividend-raises?source=feed#comment-713830 713830
As for OKS, it's an MLP. Payout Ratios don't apply the same to MLPs. You should do some more research on this.

And, as Dividend Growth Investor pointed out in a previous article:

"Actually the reason for COP's "negative earnings" in 2008 was a goodwill impairment , which is a non cash charge. Companies these days are required to evaluate their goodwill versus the carrying value of the goodwill to determine if an impairment is necessary. Without this item, COP would have achieved record earnings in 2008.."]]> Tue, 13 Oct 2009 10:46:44 -0400
As for OKS, it's an MLP. Payout Ratios don't apply the same to MLPs. You should do some more research on this.

And, as Dividend Growth Investor pointed out in a previous article:

"Actually the reason for COP's "negative earnings" in 2008 was a goodwill impairment , which is a non cash charge. Companies these days are required to evaluate their goodwill versus the carrying value of the goodwill to determine if an impairment is necessary. Without this item, COP would have achieved record earnings in 2008.."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165793-dividend-boosts-for-3-big-names?source=feed#comment-713251 713251 Mon, 12 Oct 2009 19:28:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/165100-three-dividend-stocks-with-a-perfect-risk-score?source=feed#comment-709789 709789
For example, look at a price chart for KO, which you own, since 2000. Or, to a lesser extent, WMT since 2000. Do they look like companies that are healthy and growing? Quote any statistics you want saying they are - in the long term if the price doesn't reflect that it doesn't matter.

If a company is steadily raising its dividends it should eventually "force" its price up. After all, if a dividend keeps growing but the price stays the same the yield will get so high that it should (will) bring in more investors. If the increasing dividend isn't bringing in new money, something is amiss.

Disclosure: I don't own KO or WMT but do own PEP.]]> Thu, 08 Oct 2009 23:33:54 -0400
For example, look at a price chart for KO, which you own, since 2000. Or, to a lesser extent, WMT since 2000. Do they look like companies that are healthy and growing? Quote any statistics you want saying they are - in the long term if the price doesn't reflect that it doesn't matter.

If a company is steadily raising its dividends it should eventually "force" its price up. After all, if a dividend keeps growing but the price stays the same the yield will get so high that it should (will) bring in more investors. If the increasing dividend isn't bringing in new money, something is amiss.

Disclosure: I don't own KO or WMT but do own PEP.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164881-a-different-take-on-september-s-employment-numbers?source=feed#comment-704892 704892
Your comments say far more about you than it does about Bob's straightforward article.]]> Tue, 06 Oct 2009 09:31:32 -0400
Your comments say far more about you than it does about Bob's straightforward article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164282-is-india-a-benchmark-bet-on-the-global-economy?source=feed#comment-702011 702011 Sat, 03 Oct 2009 23:22:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164481-the-return-of-the-financial-dividends?source=feed#comment-701899 701899
This is partly behind the reason the government backed off their requirement to have banks stop paying dividends altogether when creating the bailout regulations.

A company that cut its dividend to .01 or .05, to me, is the same as elimination and I'd have to review each situation on its own to see if I'd be interested after the dividend was restored.]]> Sat, 03 Oct 2009 21:00:09 -0400
This is partly behind the reason the government backed off their requirement to have banks stop paying dividends altogether when creating the bailout regulations.

A company that cut its dividend to .01 or .05, to me, is the same as elimination and I'd have to review each situation on its own to see if I'd be interested after the dividend was restored.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163825-5-excellent-non-pipeline-income-stocks?source=feed#comment-696409 696409
This isn't good or bad, just something to be aware of. It's not the same as a "normal" dividend from a vanilla C-Corp.

See their site for details:
www.teekayoffshore.com...]]> Wed, 30 Sep 2009 00:10:49 -0400
This isn't good or bad, just something to be aware of. It's not the same as a "normal" dividend from a vanilla C-Corp.

See their site for details:
www.teekayoffshore.com...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162973-dividend-stocks-vs-fixed-income-which-is-better-for-retirement?source=feed#comment-687745 687745
Not true. You could argue that US Treasuries and US agency bonds "guarantee" a return but that's certainly not true for other fixed income securities.

I'd also take exception to your statement of "Stocks are great vehicles to own during average and high inflationary periods, ...".

You need only look at the US in the 1970's, which is the most recent period of high inflation, to realize that equities performed poorly during high inflation. I agree that modest inflation doesn't impair equities.]]> Wed, 23 Sep 2009 12:12:08 -0400
Not true. You could argue that US Treasuries and US agency bonds "guarantee" a return but that's certainly not true for other fixed income securities.

I'd also take exception to your statement of "Stocks are great vehicles to own during average and high inflationary periods, ...".

You need only look at the US in the 1970's, which is the most recent period of high inflation, to realize that equities performed poorly during high inflation. I agree that modest inflation doesn't impair equities.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160532-a-new-worry-for-stock-market-bulls?source=feed#comment-671969 671969
If you just assume companies will maintain earnings at this level you get a 12m forward of $55.24 giving a PE of just under 19 at current value of S&P 1043.

If you look at the spreadsheet link to S&P I provided a bit earlier, you'll see in the 20001-2002 recession the multiple was generally much higher. In the current case growth is likely harder to come by than in the previous period so a lower multiple is reasonable.

In my view, it's unlikely that spending will be drastically reduced from the current pace so earnings should be at least maintained. ]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 10:27:54 -0400
If you just assume companies will maintain earnings at this level you get a 12m forward of $55.24 giving a PE of just under 19 at current value of S&P 1043.

If you look at the spreadsheet link to S&P I provided a bit earlier, you'll see in the 20001-2002 recession the multiple was generally much higher. In the current case growth is likely harder to come by than in the previous period so a lower multiple is reasonable.

In my view, it's unlikely that spending will be drastically reduced from the current pace so earnings should be at least maintained. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160628-construct-a-fixed-income-portfolio-with-5-dividends-using-etfs?source=feed#comment-669290 669290
Such as when he suggests digging into each ETFs holdings to determine each company's payout ratio. How does that apply to the bonds, REIT, or even preferred stock ETFs mentioned? Huh?

And, frankly, talking about "dividends" for equities and bonds at the same time is very odd to me. Bond prices, by definition, hover around some baseline (par) whereas equity pricing has no similar bound.

There are some potentially interesting ideas here, but, I think better care should have been taken in the presentation.]]> Wed, 09 Sep 2009 15:49:47 -0400
Such as when he suggests digging into each ETFs holdings to determine each company's payout ratio. How does that apply to the bonds, REIT, or even preferred stock ETFs mentioned? Huh?

And, frankly, talking about "dividends" for equities and bonds at the same time is very odd to me. Bond prices, by definition, hover around some baseline (par) whereas equity pricing has no similar bound.

There are some potentially interesting ideas here, but, I think better care should have been taken in the presentation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160532-a-new-worry-for-stock-market-bulls?source=feed#comment-668561 668561 www2.standardandpoors....

This S&P spreadsheet shows the 12m forward operating earnings at 16.88. If bloggers are quoting large multiples, they are trailing and probably "as reported" rather than "operating". Pick your favorite.


On Sep 09 09:56 AM JLarkin wrote:

> I see other bloggers out there claiming the S&P web page shows
> the S&P P/E ratio is 145 (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> or something like that. Where did you find 17, which sounds more
> realistic to me? Is 17 based on the forward looking 12 months?]]> Wed, 09 Sep 2009 10:54:51 -0400 www2.standardandpoors....

This S&P spreadsheet shows the 12m forward operating earnings at 16.88. If bloggers are quoting large multiples, they are trailing and probably "as reported" rather than "operating". Pick your favorite.


On Sep 09 09:56 AM JLarkin wrote:

> I see other bloggers out there claiming the S&P web page shows
> the S&P P/E ratio is 145 (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> or something like that. Where did you find 17, which sounds more
> realistic to me? Is 17 based on the forward looking 12 months?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159130-s-p-500-benchmark-for-fundamental-screening?source=feed#comment-654368 654368 Mon, 31 Aug 2009 09:01:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158926-pace-of-insider-sales-continues-to-escalate?source=feed#comment-653969 653969
www2.standardandpoors....

Pick and choose trailing, forward, as reported or operating earnings and your preferred historical multiple and decide for yourself.

For me, I see about $60 of 12m forward operating earnings at worst. Using a typical 16.5 multiple for S&P gives a value of 990. Doesn't seem horribly overpriced to me at Friday's 1029 but, hey, different strokes ...]]> Sun, 30 Aug 2009 20:42:31 -0400
www2.standardandpoors....

Pick and choose trailing, forward, as reported or operating earnings and your preferred historical multiple and decide for yourself.

For me, I see about $60 of 12m forward operating earnings at worst. Using a typical 16.5 multiple for S&P gives a value of 990. Doesn't seem horribly overpriced to me at Friday's 1029 but, hey, different strokes ...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157194-6-stocks-currently-cursed-with-increased-valuations?source=feed#comment-638787 638787
Their long history of YOY increases is still intact and they have 4 more quarters in 2010 to increase it to maintain this history. Just something to keep on eye on.]]> Thu, 20 Aug 2009 17:31:31 -0400
Their long history of YOY increases is still intact and they have 4 more quarters in 2010 to increase it to maintain this history. Just something to keep on eye on.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152171-bp-reports-earnings-expects-soft-demand-for-oil?source=feed#comment-610944 610944
On Jul 31 07:19 PM KSAccountant wrote:

"... However, I offer once concern. According
to Thomson Reuter's stock research, BP currently has $7.40 in cash flow per share but a negative Free Cash flow per share (essentially operating cash flow - taxes - capital expenditures). Negative free cash flow is not necessarily a problem as continued capital investment can lead to gains in the future but it leaves BP no remaing "free"
cash to pay its dividend which I must be covered by debt or current cash.

I guess I fall into the camp wondering if BP will cut its dividend within the next year or two. But, then again, looking at BP's 5 year chart, free cash flow has never covered its dividend in the last 5 years.

... "]]> Sat, 01 Aug 2009 16:10:56 -0400
On Jul 31 07:19 PM KSAccountant wrote:

"... However, I offer once concern. According
to Thomson Reuter's stock research, BP currently has $7.40 in cash flow per share but a negative Free Cash flow per share (essentially operating cash flow - taxes - capital expenditures). Negative free cash flow is not necessarily a problem as continued capital investment can lead to gains in the future but it leaves BP no remaing "free"
cash to pay its dividend which I must be covered by debt or current cash.

I guess I fall into the camp wondering if BP will cut its dividend within the next year or two. But, then again, looking at BP's 5 year chart, free cash flow has never covered its dividend in the last 5 years.

... "]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/696-geoff-considine/19790-stocks-for-the-long-run?source=feed#comment-607485 607485
If you try to obtain some "optimal" return and create a lifestyle that can *only* be sustained if you meet or exceed that goal, well, then your odds of failure are pretty high. If that's your plan, you need to consider what lifestyle changes you will make if your returns differ from your expectations.

I suspect there are a lot of recent retirees struggling with this issue right now. Investing for retirement is much different than when accumulating assets for the future.]]> Thu, 30 Jul 2009 00:00:49 -0400
If you try to obtain some "optimal" return and create a lifestyle that can *only* be sustained if you meet or exceed that goal, well, then your odds of failure are pretty high. If that's your plan, you need to consider what lifestyle changes you will make if your returns differ from your expectations.

I suspect there are a lot of recent retirees struggling with this issue right now. Investing for retirement is much different than when accumulating assets for the future.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151538-mlps-dominate-distribution-increases?source=feed#comment-604312 604312
Some of the other ones mentioned also increase each quarter. I think providing the YOY increase rather than the most recent quarter is more useful when comparing to dividend paying stocks.]]> Mon, 27 Jul 2009 18:30:09 -0400
Some of the other ones mentioned also increase each quarter. I think providing the YOY increase rather than the most recent quarter is more useful when comparing to dividend paying stocks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150713-abbot-laboratories-a-healthy-dividend-aristocrat?source=feed#comment-600874 600874
Of course, there may be some cap gains tax due on the sale and the commissions to rebuy. Those may be offset by the extra earnings from the (periodic and regular) covered calls.]]> Fri, 24 Jul 2009 10:52:18 -0400
Of course, there may be some cap gains tax due on the sale and the commissions to rebuy. Those may be offset by the extra earnings from the (periodic and regular) covered calls.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150017-13-fundamentally-sound-stocks-with-big-dividends?source=feed#comment-597787 597787

On Jul 22 07:30 AM ZEN.YANG wrote:

> General Maritime 24% yield, quarterly ! Or some of those monthly
> canadian payout funds]]> Wed, 22 Jul 2009 09:16:19 -0400

On Jul 22 07:30 AM ZEN.YANG wrote:

> General Maritime 24% yield, quarterly ! Or some of those monthly
> canadian payout funds]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147846-the-cftc-investigates-etfs-witch-hunt-or-fair-trial?source=feed#comment-581639 581639
I'm surprised the gold bugs aren't up in arms that this is a trojan horse to limit their activities.]]> Thu, 09 Jul 2009 23:01:51 -0400
I'm surprised the gold bugs aren't up in arms that this is a trojan horse to limit their activities.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147077-ten-top-principles-of-dividend-investing?source=feed#comment-576555 576555
PS: Thanks for the list - very helpful.]]> Mon, 06 Jul 2009 22:37:48 -0400
PS: Thanks for the list - very helpful.]]>