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FatPat

FatPat
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  • Volatile Netflix Is A No Go For Investors [View article]
    I have also been discredited by those shorts here, when I increased by position at 54 USD on 6th of August. At some point you get bored by the uncreative, ever-repeating short argument and now I only visit this site from time to time.

    I have to admit, it gives me some pleasure to see the follow-the-crowd, not capable of an independent, original thought, shorts hurt at this point. And the hurt will only get worse. DVD is definitely stabilizing, look at the last numbers, this is not a business going to 0. Streaming is growing by 5 million households per year. Pefect! Now Internet-TVs come along. These short are gonna feel the pain! As a long you can lose 100% of your investment, as a short your losses are not limited and you can easily go bust!
    Nov 1 02:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Shares Reclaim Moving Averages Ahead Of 3Q2012 Earnings Release [View article]
    Well its still out of the money and will likely stay so until expiry on Friday.
    Oct 24 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Shares Reclaim Moving Averages Ahead Of 3Q2012 Earnings Release [View article]
    Looks fine so far
    Oct 24 03:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Shares Reclaim Moving Averages Ahead Of 3Q2012 Earnings Release [View article]
    Sell some 55 Puts for 4 USD.
    Oct 23 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Don't Buy Into A 40% Rally [View article]
    Econometric long-term analysis has shown that the metric price/revenue has benn a better predicter for future returns than price/earnings. Price/earnings is to volatile a predictor depending too much on the business cycle. This metric also does not make sense for growth companies. Finally, the market is more efficient on price/earnings as most peolpe look at price/earnings.

    To your remark with the distribution company. To me it is more than that. They have substantal market power due to their size advantages, consumer stickiness. There are a lot of time and other costs (getting used to new service) attached to switching. This is not like shopping in another chain instead of Walmart. Netflix has more market power.

    Last time I checked they will at least grow their streaming by at least 6 million customers in 2012. And DVD will stabilize if you look at the decreasing number of lost customers over the last quarters.
    Oct 15 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Don't Buy Into A 40% Rally [View article]
    I Wrote in a New Trend ( emphasis Added). Shorting RIMM After the IPhone or AOL During the tech bubble is Not comparable. The amount of Money in New tech Trends made on the long side so vastly outnumbers any risky Money on the Short side. But go for it Short Netflix Here at less than 1 Times Revenue. Good Luck! Maye you van make 10 percent in the Short Term if you are Really Lucky. Why Bother? Look at the Money you would have made with baidu if you Bought in the beginning of 2009 a Whopping 1000% or if you Bought google at the iPod Price another 1000% Not to Mention Apple or Amazon and Countless Others. Why Bother shorting Stocks if you can only gain 100% without leverage and the average Stock increases 9% annually. Why Play this Game Wehre Chance is Stacked Against you?
    Oct 10 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Don't Buy Into A 40% Rally [View article]
    Tilson is right. This could be Big in 5 years. Never Short a market leader in a New Trend in It or Technology. They all had competition Apple Google Facebook Amazon you Name ist. The Point is that beides competition Netflix is twice as Big as all the competition combined. They gain Easily 6 Million suscribers domestically Aloen this Year. They could Easily Double in size over the next 3 to 5 years.
    Oct 9 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Don't Buy Into A 40% Rally [View article]
    This is a crowded Short with no News supporting the Short side. All Old coffee and misinformation. After the First Beat in a While coming in Q3 this could Wassili Break 100 USD Wehen the Shorts ( in Excess of 25% of float) all Need to Cover at the Same Time. Will be Fun!
    Oct 9 06:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is China's Real Growth Rate? [View article]
    Unfortunately you are wrong. In the beginning of 2010 electricity Output grew by 25 percent, but obviously the Economy did Not gre by 25 percent. Clearly electricity Output is twice as Volatile as gdp. Let say both electricity And Gdp Grow on average 10 percent. If electricity consumption is twice as Volatile this would mean Gdp grew by 10-(0.5*(10-4.4)=7.2 percent. You See your mistake? Your Second mistake is the Idea that Exports reflects Domestic demand. Weak Exports are a sign of Weak European demand And less Chinese competitivness due to a strong Yuan And High Inflation.
    Aug 30 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Stock Is Finally Cheap [View article]
    Very interesting reply, learned alot from it, thanks.
    I do think Netflix will continue to grow, and in perhaps two years they could hike prices. Also they could additionally offer pay-per-view for current shows, like Itunes, what do you think.
    Also they could stream newer shows with commercials and share advertisment revenue with content providers.
    I think you are largely right. But I think if you own the favorite platform you also have a lot of leverage. Look at Google. Why is Google worth so much. Largely because people are used to using its website for search.
    You can have a lot of new content and most people may not use your streaming channel, because they do not know about your offer, are not used to it, or prefer having a full offer of old titles as on Netflix.
    I value Netflix platform highly, and think they have many possibilities to raise revenue, by going into pay-per-view or adverts.
    Aug 6 07:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Stock Is Finally Cheap [View article]
    You seem to be a reasonable guy. I just dont like that you say that Netflix is only a streaming platform. This is right now the catch phrase of so many articles about Netflix, only a platform, only streaming, content is king and so on. In the end it is about price, I would rather have a very vheap platform company that has the platform of the future and a huge moat by subsriberber count than overpay for a generic content provider.
    Itunes and Appstore are only platforms as well. But highly profitable ones.
    Aug 5 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Stock Is Finally Cheap [View article]
    Ok, let s see. But you don t make much money by investing in finished , refined businesses. It is the process of getting there that is most satisfying.

    Bought yesterday Knight Capital at 3.11 USD, sitting on a nice profit. For some reason, I like the underdogs, the misfits, the companies that are declared dead. And, in the end, they change an entire industry and the world.

    "Because the people how are crazy enough to think they can change the world, are the ones who do. " Steve Jobs
    Aug 4 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Stock Is Finally Cheap [View article]
    Yes, perhaps they make stupid excuses, so what look at thir data, not their guidance or excuses.
    So what they have liabilities in future years. Every long-term contract entails future spending for future services. But they will have more than enough revenue against it, remember, they are growing. Compare it to leasing in the airline business, every airline does it.

    Of course I know they make 8 bugs per month. But, with members watching more than an hour per day, theere is more retention and room for future price increases, once last year's mess is forgotten.

    I certainly have less losses than you. Bought in the 70s in USD, as a EUR-investor and the recent dollar strength I am not far behind. I am considering doubling down.

    Take care. No reason to be impolite!
    Aug 4 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Stock Is Finally Cheap [View article]
    Sorry commeted on the wrong post:

    You should not use P/E as a metric for a company that right now does not have profits due to their strategy.

    Pay far less than 1 times revenue for a company that is growing their streaming customer base close to 30% annually, that is more than 3 times larger than the closest rival, that is already profitable in Canada less than 2 years after the start, that is already bigger than Lovefilm and any other rival in the UK after less than one year and that has more streaming customers than the biggest cable networks in the US is an incredibile opportunity. Not to mention that new TVs have internet access, and have an own Netflix button on the remote control and they are featured on Apple Tv that will be huge.

    I respect your points and you make far better points than any other generic follow the crowd Netflix shorts. It was a good argument and almost everything has been mentioned. Let s let the people make up their mind. Lets call it a draw. Netflix has to stend the test of time. Can t wait to see how it turns out.
    Aug 4 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Stock Is Finally Cheap [View article]
    You should not use P/E as a metric for a company that right now does not have profits due to their strategy.

    Pay far less than 1 times revenue for a company that is growing their streaming customer base close to 30% annually, that is more than 3 times larger than the closest rival, that is already profitable in Canada less than 2 years after the start, that is already bigger than Lovefilm and any other rival in the UK after less than one year and that has more streaming customers than the biggest cable networks in the US is an incredibile opportunity. Not to mention that new TVs have internet access, and have an own Netflix button on the remote control and they are featured on Apple Tv that will be huge.

    I respect your points and you make far better points than any other generic follow the crowd Netflix shorts. It was a good argument and almost everything has been mentioned. Let s let the people make up their mind. Lets call it a draw. Netflix has to stend the test of time. Can t wait to see how it turns out.
    Aug 4 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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