Phillip Jain's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/263789/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/179836/comments?source=feed#comment-821542 821542
But what do people with expected 80+ life span but only $100k in "401ks" have to look forward to?
- Buy and Hold, don't time the market or short it
- Buy into the American century
- US Bonds & FDIC is "safe"
- Buy IPOs and bonds "anal-ized" by these Investment Bankers]]> Fri, 25 Dec 2009 21:10:43 -0500
But what do people with expected 80+ life span but only $100k in "401ks" have to look forward to?
- Buy and Hold, don't time the market or short it
- Buy into the American century
- US Bonds & FDIC is "safe"
- Buy IPOs and bonds "anal-ized" by these Investment Bankers]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175502/comments?source=feed#comment-805306 805306 It would be the sheikhs of UAE likely to lose their undergarments - that are being bailed out by a mere $10b but

Sadly the US $750b-$2T put up to save our Wall Street Sheikhs! ]]> Mon, 14 Dec 2009 13:31:31 -0500 It would be the sheikhs of UAE likely to lose their undergarments - that are being bailed out by a mere $10b but

Sadly the US $750b-$2T put up to save our Wall Street Sheikhs! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175543/comments?source=feed#comment-805305 805305 It would be the sheikhs of UAE likely to lose their undergarments - that are being bailed out by a mere $10b but

Sadly the US $750b-$2T put up to save our Wall Street Sheikhs! ]]> Mon, 14 Dec 2009 13:31:15 -0500 It would be the sheikhs of UAE likely to lose their undergarments - that are being bailed out by a mere $10b but

Sadly the US $750b-$2T put up to save our Wall Street Sheikhs! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/178044/comments?source=feed#comment-805298 805298 Who do you think are the investors in Dubai?
It would be the sheikhs of UAE likely to lose their undergarments - that are being bailed out.

If it was London empty skyscraper builders going bankrupt, isn't it more likely that investors in them would be other UK investors?

As I see it, what is sadder is not the mere $10b but the US $750b-$2T put up to save our Wall Street Sheikhs!]]> Mon, 14 Dec 2009 13:28:05 -0500 Who do you think are the investors in Dubai?
It would be the sheikhs of UAE likely to lose their undergarments - that are being bailed out.

If it was London empty skyscraper builders going bankrupt, isn't it more likely that investors in them would be other UK investors?

As I see it, what is sadder is not the mere $10b but the US $750b-$2T put up to save our Wall Street Sheikhs!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173073/comments?source=feed#comment-758153 758153
I noticed that the Fed buying of Fannie & Freddie debt SO FAR is very small compared to the Mortgage backed securities (I assume MBS are from private sellers). Also

This is really fishy. I don't think there was ANY obligation for the Fed to buy MBS first - and later on they will probably have to buy $1 trillion+ of more F&F. Looks like they are crying "the sky is falling" so they can bail out their bank (or other hidden/international) buddies.

Basically, the Fed is AGAIN choosing who gets paid out - and it is all OPAQUE. Just like in AIG. ]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:36:25 -0500
I noticed that the Fed buying of Fannie & Freddie debt SO FAR is very small compared to the Mortgage backed securities (I assume MBS are from private sellers). Also

This is really fishy. I don't think there was ANY obligation for the Fed to buy MBS first - and later on they will probably have to buy $1 trillion+ of more F&F. Looks like they are crying "the sky is falling" so they can bail out their bank (or other hidden/international) buddies.

Basically, the Fed is AGAIN choosing who gets paid out - and it is all OPAQUE. Just like in AIG. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170470/comments?source=feed#comment-747287 747287
I think India used to keep most of its reserves in sterling for many years, now it is buying the worlds gold. Hmm.. don't those "bloody naked fakir buggers trust barclay's or the british pound" anymore?]]> Thu, 05 Nov 2009 20:29:31 -0500
I think India used to keep most of its reserves in sterling for many years, now it is buying the worlds gold. Hmm.. don't those "bloody naked fakir buggers trust barclay's or the british pound" anymore?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170481/comments?source=feed#comment-742727 742727 Tue, 03 Nov 2009 14:07:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/166530/comments?source=feed#comment-717215 717215 Fri, 16 Oct 2009 02:42:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/162425/comments?source=feed#comment-684951 684951 Mon, 21 Sep 2009 11:48:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161470/comments?source=feed#comment-678194 678194
Personally, I disable flash & never install silverlight. Browsers are slow enough as it is. Who wants an elephant on a fat pig on a slow OS?]]> Tue, 15 Sep 2009 17:16:57 -0400
Personally, I disable flash & never install silverlight. Browsers are slow enough as it is. Who wants an elephant on a fat pig on a slow OS?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161413/comments?source=feed#comment-678185 678185 Author says he doesn't trust Intuit. I disagree. Mint (and its users) could benefit greatly from the greater trust people are likely place in a billion dollar 20+year old company like Intuit rather than yet another Web2.0 startup.

Personally, I stopped using TurboTax long before Geithner because I found it buggy and too heavy. Its DRM (from another company's software) basically screwed up my computer many years ago & I never tried it again. I am sure Intuit probably fixed its cash cow by now.

Other older companies in this space (Yodlee) and even Microsoft are still struggling with the trust issue and seem to target other ways than personal finance. Intuit is one of the few non-bank independents that is still struggling away. I think it will benefit even though it may lose money by a "free" model.

In our own experience (buyandmonitor.com) the ability to provide risk management and due diligence to investors is hampered by the fragmented data scattered between brokers & banks. So even though we are not at all transactional, we have to struggle to work over this "data" trust issue.]]> Tue, 15 Sep 2009 17:09:57 -0400 Author says he doesn't trust Intuit. I disagree. Mint (and its users) could benefit greatly from the greater trust people are likely place in a billion dollar 20+year old company like Intuit rather than yet another Web2.0 startup.

Personally, I stopped using TurboTax long before Geithner because I found it buggy and too heavy. Its DRM (from another company's software) basically screwed up my computer many years ago & I never tried it again. I am sure Intuit probably fixed its cash cow by now.

Other older companies in this space (Yodlee) and even Microsoft are still struggling with the trust issue and seem to target other ways than personal finance. Intuit is one of the few non-bank independents that is still struggling away. I think it will benefit even though it may lose money by a "free" model.

In our own experience (buyandmonitor.com) the ability to provide risk management and due diligence to investors is hampered by the fragmented data scattered between brokers & banks. So even though we are not at all transactional, we have to struggle to work over this "data" trust issue.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161523/comments?source=feed#comment-678032 678032
One reason I did not invest in PBR is the cost of drilling DEEP wells is very high and requires $70-$90 oil prices just to break even.

Given $175b why shouldn't Brazil get some competition going and create some jobs. Similarly, China just flew its own civilian aircraft (maybe with Boeing/Lockheed ripped off technology :). Why should it continue to pay 100s of millions per aircraft to Airbus/Boeing.

Notice the nice way Brazil is doing this - ECONOMICALLY speaking. They will force economic price competition from their shipyards, yet retain the Intellectual property & discovery technology aspects of the oil drillers. Yet the message would be clear, hey if we have the oil AND the rigs (and the steel pipes,etc)... you drillers can't drill into Brazil's pocketbook]]> Tue, 15 Sep 2009 15:29:29 -0400
One reason I did not invest in PBR is the cost of drilling DEEP wells is very high and requires $70-$90 oil prices just to break even.

Given $175b why shouldn't Brazil get some competition going and create some jobs. Similarly, China just flew its own civilian aircraft (maybe with Boeing/Lockheed ripped off technology :). Why should it continue to pay 100s of millions per aircraft to Airbus/Boeing.

Notice the nice way Brazil is doing this - ECONOMICALLY speaking. They will force economic price competition from their shipyards, yet retain the Intellectual property & discovery technology aspects of the oil drillers. Yet the message would be clear, hey if we have the oil AND the rigs (and the steel pipes,etc)... you drillers can't drill into Brazil's pocketbook]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161300/comments?source=feed#comment-675380 675380
My concern is that the gold miner stocks may not pass on the full benefit of $9000 gold - the windfall profits may get "spent" by the executives. More realistically, however, the gold price may go up and down - so even if earnings are high sometimes, unpredicitability makes it hard for them to issue a steady or rising dividend.

After all nearly all miners sold out hedges to protect their mining operations precisely against this fluctuation for 2-3 decades.]]> Mon, 14 Sep 2009 06:08:26 -0400
My concern is that the gold miner stocks may not pass on the full benefit of $9000 gold - the windfall profits may get "spent" by the executives. More realistically, however, the gold price may go up and down - so even if earnings are high sometimes, unpredicitability makes it hard for them to issue a steady or rising dividend.

After all nearly all miners sold out hedges to protect their mining operations precisely against this fluctuation for 2-3 decades.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158496/comments?source=feed#comment-675161 675161
Author is saying "I Humbly bow to thee, all powerful Wall Street CEO that roars like a lion".

What a pile of bunk! The whole problem is the glorification of a few highly bonussed individuals.

By doing this, the author is just playing into the hands of arrogant assholes who perpetuated all this crap.]]> Sun, 13 Sep 2009 20:13:26 -0400
Author is saying "I Humbly bow to thee, all powerful Wall Street CEO that roars like a lion".

What a pile of bunk! The whole problem is the glorification of a few highly bonussed individuals.

By doing this, the author is just playing into the hands of arrogant assholes who perpetuated all this crap.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155687/comments?source=feed#comment-627528 627528
Of course, it could be worse. Maybe WSJ post-Murdoch has like broad cast TV become kindergartenish. If so, WSJ should not be read, if it cannot understand the importance of these "arcana". ]]> Wed, 12 Aug 2009 20:39:19 -0400
Of course, it could be worse. Maybe WSJ post-Murdoch has like broad cast TV become kindergartenish. If so, WSJ should not be read, if it cannot understand the importance of these "arcana". ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/118097/comments?source=feed#comment-612326 612326
I emailed a few Qs to ConEdison Investor Relations (they dont have a phone number), about impact of capntrade. Specifically I asked how they would be affected 2-4 years out if there was a penalty on C02 emissions and how much %age of their plants would depend.

They DID NOT REPLY!]]> Mon, 03 Aug 2009 00:13:16 -0400
I emailed a few Qs to ConEdison Investor Relations (they dont have a phone number), about impact of capntrade. Specifically I asked how they would be affected 2-4 years out if there was a penalty on C02 emissions and how much %age of their plants would depend.

They DID NOT REPLY!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152780/comments?source=feed#comment-610478 610478 Fri, 31 Jul 2009 23:47:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144143/comments?source=feed#comment-566121 566121
REALITY: Americans don't normally haggle or bribe or have strong family & social connections. Exactly the opposite in China.

REALITY: Free trade, laisezz-faire in America specifically is more about corporate profits. Greed is Great and big money lobbyists have BIG influence on politicians. Basically no one is minding the "peoples' store".

REALITY: Communist "cadres" are just another totalitarian regime (witness control of speech, press)

REALITY: Corruption is rampant in China, actually even more than other countries like India. While US investors have "clean room" approvals and perceive it as "captialists". The "rules" pretty much require a strong local partner, so the real dirty laundry is washed under the table by ethnic Chinese "partners".

REALITY: Without significant growth India and China's unemployment rates shoot up and discontent stirs. Incumbents have been thrown out repeatedly in Indian states on under-performance. Recently Indian incumbents' farm & labor massive support giveaways were very effectively managed to minimize corruption and helped reelect the Indian Congress to power.
As exports fell sharply, China has had to stimulate its economy massively. While China is more "stable", it is akin to a pressure cooker bomb without a safety release for the steam, when it blows things will be wiped out.

Given these realities :-

* No one in the US govt gives a damm about BuyXYZ policies in Europe, China or PacRim for soft & hard barriers in access to government money paid projects. US has turned a blind eye to Yuan manipulation, dumping, etc. are they going to do anything about them? ha ha ..

* $600B infrastructure spending is a MUCH higher %age of China's GDP than even Bush/Obama's packages.

* Even within the China's Communists, incumbent elites at federal, province and local levels in power change every so many years. Each elite needs to MAKE MONEY for themselves (& to pay for their kids' US/European education/MBAs) while they are in power.

So bottom line, buy Chinese is simply a way to distribute money via local Chinese contacts and of course with "commissions" to the right people. If they buy from foreigners, not only will the contracts will be likely to be more expensive but less chances for paybacks.]]> Sun, 28 Jun 2009 17:11:39 -0400
REALITY: Americans don't normally haggle or bribe or have strong family & social connections. Exactly the opposite in China.

REALITY: Free trade, laisezz-faire in America specifically is more about corporate profits. Greed is Great and big money lobbyists have BIG influence on politicians. Basically no one is minding the "peoples' store".

REALITY: Communist "cadres" are just another totalitarian regime (witness control of speech, press)

REALITY: Corruption is rampant in China, actually even more than other countries like India. While US investors have "clean room" approvals and perceive it as "captialists". The "rules" pretty much require a strong local partner, so the real dirty laundry is washed under the table by ethnic Chinese "partners".

REALITY: Without significant growth India and China's unemployment rates shoot up and discontent stirs. Incumbents have been thrown out repeatedly in Indian states on under-performance. Recently Indian incumbents' farm & labor massive support giveaways were very effectively managed to minimize corruption and helped reelect the Indian Congress to power.
As exports fell sharply, China has had to stimulate its economy massively. While China is more "stable", it is akin to a pressure cooker bomb without a safety release for the steam, when it blows things will be wiped out.

Given these realities :-

* No one in the US govt gives a damm about BuyXYZ policies in Europe, China or PacRim for soft & hard barriers in access to government money paid projects. US has turned a blind eye to Yuan manipulation, dumping, etc. are they going to do anything about them? ha ha ..

* $600B infrastructure spending is a MUCH higher %age of China's GDP than even Bush/Obama's packages.

* Even within the China's Communists, incumbent elites at federal, province and local levels in power change every so many years. Each elite needs to MAKE MONEY for themselves (& to pay for their kids' US/European education/MBAs) while they are in power.

So bottom line, buy Chinese is simply a way to distribute money via local Chinese contacts and of course with "commissions" to the right people. If they buy from foreigners, not only will the contracts will be likely to be more expensive but less chances for paybacks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144522/comments?source=feed#comment-558490 558490 Tue, 23 Jun 2009 03:55:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144618/comments?source=feed#comment-558432 558432
They EARNED by "used" the digital money liberally sprinkled for free from them by Paulson, Bush & continued with full repayment of AIG debt. Ooh their IQs are stratrosphericic (and so are their manly organs)!

Obviously they deserve the measly bonuses they got!
NOT! just kidding.

It is interesting how RupertB$al#s' Street Journal & that Kudlow clique on CNBC are so worried about our capitalist system & bonuses. These "too big to succeed" banks had no conscience being blind to taking risks. But no, their if their measly few millions of bonuses are at risk and OMG they have to fall over themselves to get the government off their family jewels.]]> Tue, 23 Jun 2009 01:00:11 -0400
They EARNED by "used" the digital money liberally sprinkled for free from them by Paulson, Bush & continued with full repayment of AIG debt. Ooh their IQs are stratrosphericic (and so are their manly organs)!

Obviously they deserve the measly bonuses they got!
NOT! just kidding.

It is interesting how RupertB$al#s' Street Journal & that Kudlow clique on CNBC are so worried about our capitalist system & bonuses. These "too big to succeed" banks had no conscience being blind to taking risks. But no, their if their measly few millions of bonuses are at risk and OMG they have to fall over themselves to get the government off their family jewels.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144400/comments?source=feed#comment-556145 556145
1. A few years ago one could buy $30k/yr-per person of IBonds with a decent 2% fixed rate giving a 6%+ return, tax deferral etc. So IBonds were far better for individuals than TBonds/TIPs. Sadly now both the I-Bonds fixed rate is wiped out and the amount/yr reduced to a pitiful amount.

2. TIPs are based on US official CPI rates which are not to be trusted since last 20+ years. Even the official rates exclude fuel & food, greatly understate health & education costs and define housing in a "equivalent-rent" way that had housing deflating in the midst of a 50% rise in home prices!

3. Ironically, good dividend paying stocks give better inflation protection and better yield.

4. End of 20 year interest rate fall from the hawk Volker to the wimps Greenspan/Bernake who have become administration puppets.

5. As USD falling fears is actually more important than inflation - USD could "adjust" by 50% or more over next 5yrs, while it is doubtful inflation would be even 3%.

6. Treasury vigilantes are likely to keep rates rising higher on greater supply (US govt's need to sell bonds), and lowered demand (multi-reserve currencies) from US-hating empires (China Russia etc) as well as "allies" (Brazil, Australia, Europe etc).

7. Your chart shows that 0% appreciation for TIPs over last 5yrs. So how is that better than a CD?]]> Sun, 21 Jun 2009 11:38:30 -0400
1. A few years ago one could buy $30k/yr-per person of IBonds with a decent 2% fixed rate giving a 6%+ return, tax deferral etc. So IBonds were far better for individuals than TBonds/TIPs. Sadly now both the I-Bonds fixed rate is wiped out and the amount/yr reduced to a pitiful amount.

2. TIPs are based on US official CPI rates which are not to be trusted since last 20+ years. Even the official rates exclude fuel & food, greatly understate health & education costs and define housing in a "equivalent-rent" way that had housing deflating in the midst of a 50% rise in home prices!

3. Ironically, good dividend paying stocks give better inflation protection and better yield.

4. End of 20 year interest rate fall from the hawk Volker to the wimps Greenspan/Bernake who have become administration puppets.

5. As USD falling fears is actually more important than inflation - USD could "adjust" by 50% or more over next 5yrs, while it is doubtful inflation would be even 3%.

6. Treasury vigilantes are likely to keep rates rising higher on greater supply (US govt's need to sell bonds), and lowered demand (multi-reserve currencies) from US-hating empires (China Russia etc) as well as "allies" (Brazil, Australia, Europe etc).

7. Your chart shows that 0% appreciation for TIPs over last 5yrs. So how is that better than a CD?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141845/comments?source=feed#comment-546068 546068
One economy not really covered by this article is the emerging "newspaper reading" middle class (40-60+ yr olds) - what we tend to focus on as educated/western influenced people. I think this is quite different but overlapping RBIs Urban Non-Manual Employees (UNME). Their CPI will be very different and higher including private schools (common for non-labor urban) health care and steeply rising housing costs. In the upper middle class, there are huge unmet "wants" - seemingly "everyone" has or at least wants western things & lifestyles - nicer cars, Pizza Hit, KFC, bolly-gori-punjabi-mem... foreign honeymoons, huge weddings, etc. Many in this class are connected with the export economy and another chunk is mostly a "rentier" or parasite class (govt/urban/bureacracy "services"). The unions/govt services have been able to match CPI in past while the export-oriented section has boomed. This class has enough power to ensure its needs are met either explicitly via salary raises or by corruption.
Unlike villages where wealth is often hidden, urban areas have public displays of apparently rising standards of living/status symbols even for the rest of the middle class with less apparent power. The middle-middle class (aspirational) wants independent flat from parents, a Nano and an occasional chicken in the pot.
It is quite possible the CPI for this urban middle class may be closer to double the other CPIs.

Another huge emerging Indian economy is the 50% of India's population under 25. Most of them DO NOT want to do the work their parents did. With 2 kids now the norm, ironically rural populations are flat to declining as they DO NOT want live in rural areas and end up fleeing "for jobs" to Tier B/C cities.
For the 25-30yr segement. It is fairly easy to get a starting Re 5-10k job for a college educated 25 year old. Also, as they become experienced (4 years is considered a lot in India :) their salaries can initially double in the private sector. The biggest imperative for these kids is to get a decent job or they may not be able to get married. This generations' young women may be forced into the work force for this and other social reasons. Like in the West, urban youths' living costs may require pooling many such incomes to survive in the urban jungle.
For the DINK 30-40yr crowd there are other problems. It is too late for them to "increase" their income by changing careers or marrying another working spouse. Employers find when it is so easy to get new "freshers" incomes of the 30yr+ may stagnate. On the other hand, even a "lousy" 600sq ft Re 2.5m flat at 12% carries a 25k/mo mortgage. Add basic food ?Re 10k and Re 3k/child-mo for school tuition. Clearly it takes Re 40k to afford a "middle-middle class" urban lifestyle. Of course those lucky to have their own urban housing are luckier. Otherwise only professional/export economy individual salaries are in this Re 40k range.
What is the CPI measure for this 30-40 segments? They need to be able to finance a disruptive shift in locale from rural to urban, pay for housing, "urban" food (which is fancier, less bargaining power & much more expensive) and urban transportation. This is also a form of inflation in that "minimum" living standards are an order of magnitude costlier. The so-called India's high savings rate probably doesn't apply to this 25-40yr bracket until these "needs" are met.

Does the Indian government or the RBI care about these three urban segments (25-30, 30-40 and 40-50s) in their CPI estimates? Actually yes - a LOT as these are the vocal voters of today & tomorrow and where most of the "growth" is to come from. They seek to bridge this singularity of the cost-of-living rise by government policy decisions to promote mortgages, reduce lending costs for housing & cars, metro construction, etc.

Employers may seek to counter this step-increase in living costs by shifting new hiring closer to demand and to cheaper Tier III/IV cities like Lucknow etc or even less and may try to freeze new jobs in expensive Tier I/II cities in order to compete. ]]> Sun, 14 Jun 2009 11:35:59 -0400
One economy not really covered by this article is the emerging "newspaper reading" middle class (40-60+ yr olds) - what we tend to focus on as educated/western influenced people. I think this is quite different but overlapping RBIs Urban Non-Manual Employees (UNME). Their CPI will be very different and higher including private schools (common for non-labor urban) health care and steeply rising housing costs. In the upper middle class, there are huge unmet "wants" - seemingly "everyone" has or at least wants western things & lifestyles - nicer cars, Pizza Hit, KFC, bolly-gori-punjabi-mem... foreign honeymoons, huge weddings, etc. Many in this class are connected with the export economy and another chunk is mostly a "rentier" or parasite class (govt/urban/bureacracy "services"). The unions/govt services have been able to match CPI in past while the export-oriented section has boomed. This class has enough power to ensure its needs are met either explicitly via salary raises or by corruption.
Unlike villages where wealth is often hidden, urban areas have public displays of apparently rising standards of living/status symbols even for the rest of the middle class with less apparent power. The middle-middle class (aspirational) wants independent flat from parents, a Nano and an occasional chicken in the pot.
It is quite possible the CPI for this urban middle class may be closer to double the other CPIs.

Another huge emerging Indian economy is the 50% of India's population under 25. Most of them DO NOT want to do the work their parents did. With 2 kids now the norm, ironically rural populations are flat to declining as they DO NOT want live in rural areas and end up fleeing "for jobs" to Tier B/C cities.
For the 25-30yr segement. It is fairly easy to get a starting Re 5-10k job for a college educated 25 year old. Also, as they become experienced (4 years is considered a lot in India :) their salaries can initially double in the private sector. The biggest imperative for these kids is to get a decent job or they may not be able to get married. This generations' young women may be forced into the work force for this and other social reasons. Like in the West, urban youths' living costs may require pooling many such incomes to survive in the urban jungle.
For the DINK 30-40yr crowd there are other problems. It is too late for them to "increase" their income by changing careers or marrying another working spouse. Employers find when it is so easy to get new "freshers" incomes of the 30yr+ may stagnate. On the other hand, even a "lousy" 600sq ft Re 2.5m flat at 12% carries a 25k/mo mortgage. Add basic food ?Re 10k and Re 3k/child-mo for school tuition. Clearly it takes Re 40k to afford a "middle-middle class" urban lifestyle. Of course those lucky to have their own urban housing are luckier. Otherwise only professional/export economy individual salaries are in this Re 40k range.
What is the CPI measure for this 30-40 segments? They need to be able to finance a disruptive shift in locale from rural to urban, pay for housing, "urban" food (which is fancier, less bargaining power & much more expensive) and urban transportation. This is also a form of inflation in that "minimum" living standards are an order of magnitude costlier. The so-called India's high savings rate probably doesn't apply to this 25-40yr bracket until these "needs" are met.

Does the Indian government or the RBI care about these three urban segments (25-30, 30-40 and 40-50s) in their CPI estimates? Actually yes - a LOT as these are the vocal voters of today & tomorrow and where most of the "growth" is to come from. They seek to bridge this singularity of the cost-of-living rise by government policy decisions to promote mortgages, reduce lending costs for housing & cars, metro construction, etc.

Employers may seek to counter this step-increase in living costs by shifting new hiring closer to demand and to cheaper Tier III/IV cities like Lucknow etc or even less and may try to freeze new jobs in expensive Tier I/II cities in order to compete. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142397/comments?source=feed#comment-541686 541686
Just because Google has a good scam going doesn't mean stupid automakers & housing economy can reproduce their monopoly. Google basically DICTATES terms to its victims, er.. "clients" who still think online advertising works. Advertising is an industry where ad agencies sell crap to sentimental old-fogeys. Few ads work on TV! Just look at the crummy Microsoft ads. When advertising gets even more precise, and competitive the googlenomics will see reality.

Adwords are a homogenous commodity - they can be treated as single-dimensional i.e. value vs price. Houses and Cars are VERY different in they have MANY dimensions and lots of competition.

Another thing, auctions are of many kinds (a) Cold hearted bastards who are looking for 90-95% off, or (b) ebay suckers, (c) sentimental art "collectors" with too much money for their own good (d) bargain hunters a la expedia/Amazon which "spoil" the market.

I think in volume, housing and autos will end up more like (d) the bargain hunters with low margins!

Don't you know that new car values fall 20%+ the moment you drive them off the lot! This is part of current emotional sales process. What do you think will happen when you make the bidding computerized when there are 100 models of cars to choose from. The margins will go to zero that is what!]]> Thu, 11 Jun 2009 04:10:39 -0400
Just because Google has a good scam going doesn't mean stupid automakers & housing economy can reproduce their monopoly. Google basically DICTATES terms to its victims, er.. "clients" who still think online advertising works. Advertising is an industry where ad agencies sell crap to sentimental old-fogeys. Few ads work on TV! Just look at the crummy Microsoft ads. When advertising gets even more precise, and competitive the googlenomics will see reality.

Adwords are a homogenous commodity - they can be treated as single-dimensional i.e. value vs price. Houses and Cars are VERY different in they have MANY dimensions and lots of competition.

Another thing, auctions are of many kinds (a) Cold hearted bastards who are looking for 90-95% off, or (b) ebay suckers, (c) sentimental art "collectors" with too much money for their own good (d) bargain hunters a la expedia/Amazon which "spoil" the market.

I think in volume, housing and autos will end up more like (d) the bargain hunters with low margins!

Don't you know that new car values fall 20%+ the moment you drive them off the lot! This is part of current emotional sales process. What do you think will happen when you make the bidding computerized when there are 100 models of cars to choose from. The margins will go to zero that is what!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127325/comments?source=feed#comment-438918 438918
Also, it is not really meaningful to ADD UP the %s as it is very likely in this niche that they will visit 2 or more sites, i.e. they overlap.So if let's say 9% of all internet users on average visit 3 real estate sites each, that will cause the total to be 27%.

In other words, Keith & xmplary, the total is closer to 10% not 100%]]> Tue, 24 Mar 2009 20:07:07 -0400
Also, it is not really meaningful to ADD UP the %s as it is very likely in this niche that they will visit 2 or more sites, i.e. they overlap.So if let's say 9% of all internet users on average visit 3 real estate sites each, that will cause the total to be 27%.

In other words, Keith & xmplary, the total is closer to 10% not 100%]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101172/comments?source=feed#comment-293768 293768
Is it the internet or just decline in these media owned by old politically biased idiosyncrytic idiots like Murdoch, Redstone or the Hannah-ish Disney. Or is it just that the only Americans that watch TV are fringe nuts (gays - ellen,etc, blacks, hispanics telemundu, sports addicts,etc). I think it is the SUV-like mentality of squeezing out the last drop of blood in a corpse.

The media industry deserves everything it gets.]]> Wed, 29 Oct 2008 16:15:54 -0400
Is it the internet or just decline in these media owned by old politically biased idiosyncrytic idiots like Murdoch, Redstone or the Hannah-ish Disney. Or is it just that the only Americans that watch TV are fringe nuts (gays - ellen,etc, blacks, hispanics telemundu, sports addicts,etc). I think it is the SUV-like mentality of squeezing out the last drop of blood in a corpse.

The media industry deserves everything it gets.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98863/comments?source=feed#comment-276341 276341
Another thing about tech companies - most analysts are lying whores! How do you think they make money nowadays? Not by 'selling' research reports - but rather by sharing profits from giving heads up to in-house propreitary traders.

Be further wary about OLD TECH if the management that made them great or the advantages are long gone!]]> Tue, 07 Oct 2008 20:16:02 -0400
Another thing about tech companies - most analysts are lying whores! How do you think they make money nowadays? Not by 'selling' research reports - but rather by sharing profits from giving heads up to in-house propreitary traders.

Be further wary about OLD TECH if the management that made them great or the advantages are long gone!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95786/comments?source=feed#comment-256375 256375 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 19:58:04 -0400