William Davison

For Your Perusal: The Glory of Free Market Oil Supply

Well I think your wrong it covers 6 years and we should of seen some demand response in that time. Yes it can take 10 years to bring on new fields, but your ignoring the fact that higher prices extend the fields life and increase the oil recovered. Many North Sea oil fields have had their projected life extended considerably in the last few years but its not stopped the decline. The message from the North Sea is clear. Its got the best data, the most advance technology, its capital intensive, has good local infrastructure, is political stable and even the Tax regime is fairly good.

Your clutching at straws. See the chart www.theoildrum.com/upl...

On Nov 02 04:15 AM Dave5577 wrote:

> Another indication of peak oil perhaps. Show a chart of their acquisition
> expense and exploration and development expenses over the same time
> period. And do not forget the long lead times to bring new oil to
> market...at times it can be 10 years or more with permits and the
> like.... Basically a chart that does not indicate what the author
> says it indicates.

George Soros: The Guru Outlook

Because he does not have sex with his relatives.

On Oct 29 09:29 AM p church wrote:

> If Soros is so smart, why is he a liberal?

3 Stocks that Will Ride the Wind Energy Boom

Your right about Iron ore as the Oil and Gas industry will also need large quantities to open up the remaining reserves in offshore in deep water off Brazil, GOM and eventually Greenland and the Arctic.

What I think you have missed is that most of the Wind is remote places as well and will need vast expansion of the electricity grid, particular for the more reliable off shore wind that is now developing in the North Sea. That will require Super smart grids, linked using HDVC, so industry leaders like ABB, Siemens and meter companies like Itron

World Series of Crude Oil: Winner Decides Winter Gasoline Prices

"The economy and realization that demand of fuel had been going down was due to the price of gasoline spiking up to $4.50 and diesel at $5 per gallon. It exceeded what customers were willing to pay."

Well you will get use to $5, $6 and even $7, we have in Europe a long time ago. As there are no really good alternatives.

Understanding Energy: Professional Money Management and Peak Oil

So have actually purchased an electric car? What percentage of US sales are electric? How many of the cars at the car shows you been to are in production or even plan to be in the next 5 years? There are 230 million vehicles in US, at current and planned production rates how long will it take to replace them? How many recharging points are the in US. Is the range of the electric car enough for the American way of life. Is the electricity grid capable of distributing the power needed.

The answers I suspect are either NO or Sweet F All

On Oct 27 05:36 PM balois wrote:

> ...or electricity (from a multitude of non-hydrocarbon sources, nuke,
> hydro and so on)? Have these peak oil scare mongers been to a car
> show latley?
>
> Have a good day

Too Big to Fail: Now It Gets Interesting

The banks will have break themselves up and it could even be good for their stock holders. If the bankers carry on as before, they would be showing an amazing contempt for the tax payer and democracy. What ever Alice in Wonderland world they inhabit, this is one mad hatter's tea party that's going to end.

When Vince Cable the Liberal Democrats Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer first proposed this it reject out of hand by many City Bankers, but now I think it would very difficult for Conservatives to maintain creditability by opposing this now the Governor of the Bank of England has made this speech.

A Crude 10 Year Perspective: The DJIA, Oil and Gold

Re CAT recommendation, I think you will find some of the Oil sands etc uses Terex equipment, like the TEREX O&K Excavators. Even the Wind power needs there cranes and crushers to install them.

ABB makes the Smart grid equipment to connect up the Wind power to population centres. Both ABB and Siemens are do HVDC but I suspect ABB is the purer play here. Grid companies like National grid should benefit and are fairly defensive with good dividends.

In the 1970's the oil service companies did far better than the majors, one I particularity like is Lamprell Plc (LON:LAM) based in middle east and still valued at under half it was before the crash.

Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices: Like Déjà Vu All Over Again

Why does your graph appear to show only US consumption. 75% of world consumption is out side the USA and nearly all the growth is in Asia.

Can I suggest you use a world consumption graph and a world production graph. You would see that production has been flat since 2005 and therefore increasing demand will cause prices to spike.

Senate Republicans: Give Us Nuclear, Offshore Drilling, We’ll Consider Cap-and-Trade

The Nuclear industry must of had more subsidies over the years than any other industry, but "its different this time".

From an investors point of view its never going to be a great investment if it relies on tax payers. Its a far from ideal energy source and I am not talking safety. Its either on or off and so needs significant backup. The capital costs are very high and while the fuel is relatively cheap, the running costs are not. Then there are the decommissoning costs that add that extra bit of uncertainty for the investor. Probably the best nuclear investment is with those that build it, owning one long term is a liablity.

The Dogma of Low Interest Rates Is Wrong

Deflation is very dangerous it increase peoples and companies debts, that is what happened in the US in 1930's. Where as the UK came off the gold standard and did not experience the a deep depression like the US, for example UK car production only fell in 1 year of the 1930's.

You quote Milton Friedman, you don't appear to have never read his analysis of the depression, pointing out that US money supply shrank by 1/3 up to 1933. His solution was QE, rather that spending stimulus that Keynes argued for. Friedman is almost the father of QE, that is where the Fed got the idea from.

Keynes also argued that lowering interest rates to near zero would have increasingly little effect and he appears, looking at the Japanese experience to be right.


On Oct 07 12:49 PM Harry Long wrote:

> You start out with an illogical statement, which is the source of
> your troubles.
>
> Think clearly: deflation is not the enemy of the economy. Deflation
> benefits savers by making their savings more valuable. Deflation
> hurts those who borrow by making their borrowings more difficult
> to repay.
>
> Inflation hurts savers by making their savings less valuable. Inflation
> helps borrowers by making their borrowings cheaper to repay.
>
> As Milton Friedman recollected of du Pont's famous adage "we do not
> have to be gracious at all to inconsistent logic or absurd reasoning.
> Bad logicians have committed more involuntary crimes than bad men
> have done intentionally."

The Dogma of Low Interest Rates Is Wrong

Harry you can't use the performance of the US car industry v Japan's, to say devaluing a currency to does not stimulate an economy. The US car industry has behaved like lemmings for years, hiding behind SUV sales instead of competing in the main world car markets.

After all Japan's currency was under valued until the 1980's, the rapid economic growth slowed once the Yen increased to a more realistic value against the Dollar. As China may well discover in 10 years time.

Asset Reflation Does Not Signal Recovery for U.S.'s Collapsed Economy

I think Gregor is right in more than the FED's and other central banks attempts at asset reflation. Investing itself have become increasingly a zero sum game in Wall St and the City of London, no more than a casino where the house always wins and punters keep it going by borrowing more money supplied by the Central banks. Most savers/investors loss while the financial service sector takes an ever larger slice. The Bankers have turned parasitic, taking more from the host than they give.

How Much Natural Gas Remains in the USA?

I think farmers call it "counting your chickens before they've hatched." Using unproven reserve figures sounds a lot like Enron accounting practices.
The real question should be are the proven reserves declining year on year or increasing. What is the trend?

Grid Connectivity: Invest in Alternative Energy's Missing Link

ABB appears to be the main supplier in Europe for HVDC lines. The European Grids are starting to link together and there is EU proposal to create full Northern and Southern European Smart grids using HVDC. For current and future projects see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
www.trec-uk.org.uk/res...
business.timesonline.c...

Natural Gas Stocks: The Ultimate Form of Stored Solar Energy

I think we will find that Shale gas follows bell shaped curve as well. It will be interesting see what the life span of these shale gas fields are and how long the high flow rates can be maintained.