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  • J.C. Penney: Will History Repeat Itself? [View article]
    This analysis would be very beneficial and rewarding if these patterns actual repeated itself. The fallacy in this analogy, just like your counterpart RetailMarven latest thesis is that the correlation of company performance and stock movements rarely move in unison.
    Anyone putting money to work based of previous company performance repeating itself from Qtr to Qtr will ultimately lose.
    Indeed, if JCP reports q1 at the low end of estimates stock will fall, however, I believe their is a far more likelihood they come in at the high-end or beat estimates.
    This is based on very soft double digit q1 loses for 2 consecutive years, re-establishing is core private brands, fully invoking its marketing strategy, re-merchandising/branding of their home lines.
    Go ahead and short based on history/past performance, my money beating on a turnaround--ALL IN my friend
    May 8 10:22 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Countdown At J.C. Penney, An Opportunity For Speculators [View article]
    Great analysis on predicting stock movement before/after earning announcement. Unfortunately past performance history on past stock movements based on certain outcomes rarely repeats itself. If it did we all would be "in the money"
    I'm taking a different speculation on this one. If JCP is now back on track as many indicators are pointing too and beats earnings on profit and sales we could see one of the biggest short squeezes in recent history.
    As opposed to the referenced scenario , I would be accumulating as many shares as possible up to earnings. Look for it to break $10 after announcement and the short covering their-after which will continue to drive stock to ???????????
    May 7 08:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell J.C. Penney: Too Much Change Too Soon [View article]
    jcp overhaul of the way it does business " too much change too fast for the established and profitable business".
    The new regime did correctly identify company cost structure (sg&a)
    was significantly out of line with its competitors(Kohl's,Mac... and initiated an aggressive cost cutting of nearly 1 billion by 2014. Company now believes these cost cutting measures will be completed by 2013 giving major leverage to current profitability..
    If only they would have taken these cost saving initiatives while only making tweaks to its business plans the stock would be up 25% instead of where we are at. The Ackman/Vernado activist correctly identified the cost saving opportunity but didn't foresee the overhaul marketing /pricing strategy as being the driver of lost sales and profitability.
    Ackman and board should have seen this coming and could have put measures in place to make this a gradually transition as mentioned.
    The only saving grace now is to drive stock price to multi-years lows and accumulate shares for a nice double/triple in the next few years.
    May 17 10:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment