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adAstra

adAstra
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  • Yield Chasers United Sets New Records As Well [View article]
    I agree. If investor faith in central banks crumble, then I'm not sure anywhere is safe.

    Also, a loss of faith is probably going to happen very quickly. For something dramatic like that to happen, most people will likely be blind-sided.
    May 11 05:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intermediate-term Low in Gold Nearly Confirmed [View instapost]
    Hi Erik, it looks like your call was solid. I'm curious - is there any particular reason why you favor SGOL over GLD or any other alternatives?

    Best,
    Feb 22 01:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hindenburg Omen Blog - December, 2010  [View instapost]
    So what's the verdict on HO? The market did manage to selloff late in the day.
    Dec 13 06:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best ETF Trading Practices: A Seeking Alpha Expert Discussion [View article]
    Where is the transcript?

    A replay is not a transcript, especially since it can't be printed.
    Oct 12 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Durables: Mixed News, Interesting Report [View article]
    LT,

    Overall I agree with you, but with the dollar breaking below several supports recently and making a move below 80, the risk to me is too high. This is especially true given all the potential for unpredictable central bank meddling. I recently exited a long dollar trade at a small loss. (I'm also very short the broad market and am hurting today, but we'll see what happens next week.)

    By the way, the vicious snapback rally you're looking for may have happened early August.
    Sep 24 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Internals Flashing Caution Signals [View article]
    Prieur, what's your opinion on Lowry's being a contrarian indicator. When the Buying Power is low, it sounds like no one else is buying - sounds like a good time to buy to me!
    Jul 16 01:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freddie Mac Sub Debt Buy-Back: Heinous and Grossly Unfair [View article]
    Seconded. Thanks.
    Jul 12 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another View of Industry Momentum [View article]
    We may be in the launch phase, but given the speed of bureaucracy, I wouldn't expect to see that BAMM for another year. Believe it or not, construction won't happen until after field data is collected, design concepts are proposed, refined and approved by the government (be it local, state, or federal). The design process is going to take several months. Only once that ends will actual construction begin.
    Jan 29 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curious Case of the Stubborn Market Leaders [View article]
    I think the point is that the chart of XLE exhibited bubble behavior to the upside and currently, bounced off the trendline. Projecting into the future, XLE should be over-correcting to the downside.

    While it might prove profitable to invest in XLE near the low of the over-correction, the article also discusses sector leadership. My take is that a small position in XLE-related stocks would be profitable and allow for diversification, but the focus should be on investing in the next market leader.

    A cheap dog is still a dog.
    Jan 27 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breweries Provide Sign of Deepening Recession [View article]
    I take it you haven't heard. The porn industry filled out a petition for a bailout too due to economic hardship. Guess sex isn't paying either.
    Jan 17 08:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GM Shorts Pay 50% Annual Rate [View article]
    Actually some brokerages already let people earn money by lending their shares. It's a very small percentage of retail investors though because the only cases I know are retail investors with over 30k shares. They negotiated a deal with the brokerage - I guess you just have to ask.
    Jan 14 10:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Public Pensions: Rotting from Within [View article]
    One of the few good things about this bear market is that retirement plans will be placed under a microscope. With the amount of losses pensions are experiencing, the golden eggs that unions and other powerful groups setup for themselves are cracking. If you visit that pension tsunami website, you'll notice that pensions have been falling apart for years, and 2008-2010 will probably be the straw that broke the camel's back.

    The problem is that all those in power know the problem exists, but to take it on would be a policital death sentence and so they push it off to the next leader.

    The only way the pension problem is going to be fixed is for the word to get out, which is starting to happen, albeit too slowly.
    Jan 14 10:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Cash Levels and Your Portfolio [View article]
    It might be time to buy, but I get the feeling that we're still a few months off.

    One useful fact that wasn't mentioned was the average peak cash %. From the two examples given, we're not even at the mean yet so more cash will probably be pulled out.

    Additionally, given the significant debt levels in the US, I would argue that we are more likely to overshoot the average peak cash than undershoot. People will need cash to pay off their debts, to pay their mortgages, etc.
    Jan 13 11:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 50% Returns, No Risk? [View article]
    Interesting perspective. In that situation, I'd probably be willing to put it in a stable value fund. Unfortunately, my current company only matches a fraction on the first 4k invested so it's a tiny consideration in my portfolio.

    On a conceptual level, it's probably a much better idea to invest in an index fund for the next few years instead of a money market due to valuations. And once we're officially in a bull market, it would be a decent time to switch back to cash.
    Jan 9 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Part-Time Nation [View article]
    At first glance, the chart looks extremely disturbing. However, if you look closer, it only has raw data that can be quite misleading.

    The chart would be far more useful if the numbers were adjusted; e.g. as a percentage of the total workforce, or of the total population, etc.

    The sharp spike in 2009 is disturbing either way, but it may not be higher as a percentage of the workforce when compared to the peaks in the early 80s/90s.

    Is there any chance we could see a chart with percentages?
    Jan 9 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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