doggydogworld

Postal Service Set to Lead the Way in Deploying Electric Fleet

Nice article, but I have one correction. You say this report was "written from the perspective of an EV buyer, rather than an EV seller". In reality, it was written from the perspective of a subsidy-seeker. The USPS has a clear incentive to inflate the estimated costs and downplay expected performance.

The five-year battery replacement is a huge red flag. The report says LLVs average about 6000 miles/year. A 5 year/60k mile life is a joke. The Volt's 10 year/150k mile warranty is typical for the industry. I can't think of a single mainstream automaker or battery vendor targeting less than 10/100k.

So, do we accept the number from the automakers and battery vendors whose business depends on getting this right or the number which maximizes the cash payments the USPS gets from the DOE?

White House Report: GM Volt Is Not Ready for Prime Time

John Peterson, A123 did report over $1200/kWh manufacture cost in the first 9 months of 2008, but over $500 was due to acquisition of Enerland, unabsorbed manufacturing costs (i.e. costs for new factories which aren't yet producing) and a writeoff of obselete inventory. You cannot extrapolate unit costs when a company is in high ramp/startup mode. Their business model is based on mass production costs below $400/kWh. They are swinging for the fences, which may or may not be wise.

I strenuously disagree with Plug-in America's proposal for 5 year battery warranties. Every single Prius bash piece for five years after US launch claimed battery replacement would cost owners thousands every few years. Batteries must last the life of the car or the mainstream will reject the car. It's that simple. Niche marks like Teslacan get away with a 5 year battery but mainstream automakers cannot.

The first half million PHEVs will lose money. Down the road a $5000 pack (10 kWh @ $500/kWh) solves the problem. $5000 amortized over 125k EV miles is 4 cents/mile. Add a couple cents for electricity and you're still well below the 10 cents/mile for gasoline (25 mpg @ $2.50/gal).

If Thornburg's Issue Fails Today, Which Banks Will Hurt?

The preferred tender has nothing to do with raising cash.

Inhospitable Value at Hospitality Properties Trust

No question HPT is overpaying the dividend. Barring a miracle they will cut it, but that's already priced in. A couple comments:

1. Hotel portion of HPT deserves higher multiple than your comps due to the nature of the leases and lower overall leverage. HPT sailed thru the post-9/11 downturn which crushed most hotel REITs.

2. Deferred rent, TA financial condition, etc. are all irrelevant. HPT owns whatever cash flow the trucks stops will produce. You have to value HPT's stake based on that cash flow. TA doesn't matter.

3. The recent drop in oil prices alleviates the inventory cash crunch at the truck stops. This doesn't change valuation but lessens the immediate cash pressures.

Disclosure, I am long HPT-C. Sold my HPT common years ago at 35 and felt stupid when it went to 50.