doggydogworld's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/264299/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/159957-postal-service-set-to-lead-the-way-in-deploying-electric-fleet?source=feed#comment-664676 664676
The five-year battery replacement is a huge red flag. The report says LLVs average about 6000 miles/year. A 5 year/60k mile life is a joke. The Volt's 10 year/150k mile warranty is typical for the industry. I can't think of a single mainstream automaker or battery vendor targeting less than 10/100k.

So, do we accept the number from the automakers and battery vendors whose business depends on getting this right or the number which maximizes the cash payments the USPS gets from the DOE?]]> Sun, 06 Sep 2009 21:04:44 -0400
The five-year battery replacement is a huge red flag. The report says LLVs average about 6000 miles/year. A 5 year/60k mile life is a joke. The Volt's 10 year/150k mile warranty is typical for the industry. I can't think of a single mainstream automaker or battery vendor targeting less than 10/100k.

So, do we accept the number from the automakers and battery vendors whose business depends on getting this right or the number which maximizes the cash payments the USPS gets from the DOE?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132949-white-house-report-gm-volt-is-not-ready-for-prime-time?source=feed#comment-477035 477035
I strenuously disagree with Plug-in America's proposal for 5 year battery warranties. Every single Prius bash piece for five years after US launch claimed battery replacement would cost owners thousands every few years. Batteries must last the life of the car or the mainstream will reject the car. It's that simple. Niche marks like Teslacan get away with a 5 year battery but mainstream automakers cannot.

The first half million PHEVs will lose money. Down the road a $5000 pack (10 kWh @ $500/kWh) solves the problem. $5000 amortized over 125k EV miles is 4 cents/mile. Add a couple cents for electricity and you're still well below the 10 cents/mile for gasoline (25 mpg @ $2.50/gal).]]> Sat, 25 Apr 2009 11:42:53 -0400
I strenuously disagree with Plug-in America's proposal for 5 year battery warranties. Every single Prius bash piece for five years after US launch claimed battery replacement would cost owners thousands every few years. Batteries must last the life of the car or the mainstream will reject the car. It's that simple. Niche marks like Teslacan get away with a 5 year battery but mainstream automakers cannot.

The first half million PHEVs will lose money. Down the road a $5000 pack (10 kWh @ $500/kWh) solves the problem. $5000 amortized over 125k EV miles is 4 cents/mile. Add a couple cents for electricity and you're still well below the 10 cents/mile for gasoline (25 mpg @ $2.50/gal).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106747-if-thornburg-s-issue-fails-today-which-banks-will-hurt?source=feed#comment-309823 309823 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:20:16 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94520-inhospitable-value-at-hospitality-properties-trust?source=feed#comment-256965 256965
1. Hotel portion of HPT deserves higher multiple than your comps due to the nature of the leases and lower overall leverage. HPT sailed thru the post-9/11 downturn which crushed most hotel REITs.

2. Deferred rent, TA financial condition, etc. are all irrelevant. HPT owns whatever cash flow the trucks stops will produce. You have to value HPT's stake based on that cash flow. TA doesn't matter.

3. The recent drop in oil prices alleviates the inventory cash crunch at the truck stops. This doesn't change valuation but lessens the immediate cash pressures.

Disclosure, I am long HPT-C. Sold my HPT common years ago at 35 and felt stupid when it went to 50.]]> Wed, 17 Sep 2008 10:45:22 -0400
1. Hotel portion of HPT deserves higher multiple than your comps due to the nature of the leases and lower overall leverage. HPT sailed thru the post-9/11 downturn which crushed most hotel REITs.

2. Deferred rent, TA financial condition, etc. are all irrelevant. HPT owns whatever cash flow the trucks stops will produce. You have to value HPT's stake based on that cash flow. TA doesn't matter.

3. The recent drop in oil prices alleviates the inventory cash crunch at the truck stops. This doesn't change valuation but lessens the immediate cash pressures.

Disclosure, I am long HPT-C. Sold my HPT common years ago at 35 and felt stupid when it went to 50.]]>