doggydogworld

White House Report: GM Volt Is Not Ready for Prime Time

John Peterson, A123 did report over $1200/kWh manufacture cost in the first 9 months of 2008, but over $500 was due to acquisition of Enerland, unabsorbed manufacturing costs (i.e. costs for new factories which aren't yet producing) and a writeoff of obselete inventory. You cannot extrapolate unit costs when a company is in high ramp/startup mode. Their business model is based on mass production costs below $400/kWh. They are swinging for the fences, which may or may not be wise.

I strenuously disagree with Plug-in America's proposal for 5 year battery warranties. Every single Prius bash piece for five years after US launch claimed battery replacement would cost owners thousands every few years. Batteries must last the life of the car or the mainstream will reject the car. It's that simple. Niche marks like Teslacan get away with a 5 year battery but mainstream automakers cannot.

The first half million PHEVs will lose money. Down the road a $5000 pack (10 kWh @ $500/kWh) solves the problem. $5000 amortized over 125k EV miles is 4 cents/mile. Add a couple cents for electricity and you're still well below the 10 cents/mile for gasoline (25 mpg @ $2.50/gal).