spqrusa

Closing Update for Friday, Sept. 4: Mixed Picture

@albertarocks - it has always been this way. I am not sure what people, who feel like you, should do, but violence doesn't seem to be the healthy answer. Nor will violence solve the problem.

Did the burning of Rome matter to Nero? No. Sure, he was eventually killed, but it didn't fix the problem. And, it only discouraged tyrants for a limited time, then it was back to old business.

I would suggest that you continue to seek out like-minded people. And that you "club" together with like-minded people to affect change. We need a movement of those who are more suspicious of big and small governments, and who will elect people to lift the heavy yokes we have been placed under.

In Fed We Trust: Ben Bernanke’s War on the Great Panic, by David Wessel

Please don't act surprised. The central bank model we follow today is part of the larger banking cartel that has controlled money supplies for a very long time. The last few centuries have been a battle over private money supply control versus elected official money supply control and fiat econometrics over gold standards. Now with all the world currencies floating in a fantasy fiat ocean - we are left to the whims of central bankers. I don't propose we return to a gold standard - it is not an accurate measure of wealth or productivity. I am sure we would feel better about having elected people control the money supply, but history proves that elected official control of the money supply is even more disastrous. Can you imaging Barney Frank in control of the money presses? That would give a whole new meaning to Franking privileges.

The reality is that we will all pay as the Fed and other central banks play fancy with the inflation figures and money supplies in order to keep the rotting edifice from toppling over. In effect, they will steal from our children and our pocket books to pay for gross malfeasance. But, this isn't the first time I've had to pay-up for someone else's failings. Nor is it unfair. We all win with cheap money availability, but we cry when we have to pay an inflation tax to sober-up our party. Long live the Fed.

Microsoft: Whistling in the Dark

Being one of the many who have worked at both companies, you summed it up well. Microsoft has been unable to come-up with a Jobs like figure.

Apple's challenge will be to come-up with another one after Jobs. I am not sure that is easily done. The candidates Jobs has been giving us lack lustre. If we lose SJ, Apple may have a few years of fumes to run-on. It may be troubling times again at the apple corps.

Buffett's Betrayal

We have Babylon - we cannot accurately describe, nor is it possible anymore, to describe what kind of system we have. Capitalist or Socialist or Fascism - we have them all. We have so many elements of the Fascist state that we are completely blind to it. Our indocrinators have been so effective at painting Fascists as Anti-semite war mongers that we safely distance ourselves from such a label. But we have a very powerful Fascist Police state - the most effective in History, and I would estimate, not the last most powerful one.

The Fascists were an effective amalgam of state and corporate power - kind of like rome on steroids. When the modern incarnation waded through europe in the last few centuries, it made any other systems that didn't adopt basic fascist elements quite ineffective. You cannot compete against them with a quaint (largely) agrarian economy which was America post 20th century. Il stato found America a ready and pliant state during WWII to fight-off the ultra-fascist Axis powers. Either way, we had to adopt many of the same governmental operating systems in order to compete and win against them.

In the old republic, it was often that censors found much that needed to be edited from the public dialogue. Their method of censor was brutish by modern standards. Our modern system affords us so much (the internet comes to mind) but yet we are straddled by the lameness of our language and education system which does nothing to prepare you for the onslaught of the modern polity. In fact, it does everything to make you a compliant consumer and true believer.

Today we have a polarized polity that largely only sees Red or Blue - any other colors are considered a distraction.

Buffett's Betrayal

It's a good letter - a worthy note that should be tucked in with all the other swindlers of history. It's probably too rude to call him a swindler since he's such a kind fellow. Ponzi's followers loved him. Well, come to think about it, Hitler's followers were quite enthralled too.

Sociopaths like Buffet cannot fathom that they are sociopaths - they think their just the lucky ones. The ones whom divine providence happens to bestow treasure and luxury - it helps to have the government in the pocket as well. We couldn't have the Hampton or Omaha swells out of their houses. We had to bail them out. This is the way of things - it is their wonderful karma which protects them.

I agree with most sentiments here about what vile things should be done to the Buffetts of the world but we really don't have the stomach for such things anymore. Guillotines are so 17th century. I am not sure it would do any good in the long-run.

Why Economists Should Be Rewarding Unorthodox Thinking

There is no point in blaming Greenspan - he acted with the best available information. He is a powerful catalyst in the system - no doubt.

Everyone forgets that the gas bubble contributed significantly to imbalance basic resource allocation for pretty much everyone. Energy is the fountain of the wealth engine in many ways. Its pricing figures into nearly every transaction and act of production. Wild speculation or manipulation contributed significantly to the domino fall... We seem to forget as soon as thing get "back into balance". We will soon forget how we got into this mess, as we seek to compensate for our past losses. It's not unlike a complex chemical reaction. Feed too much or starve too much on one part of a chemical tree and the system gets "out of whack". Sometimes, there are explosions :)

Do people and corporations attempt to "game" or "guess" the direction of the reaction? Hell yes. Predict or die... It's rather brutish but most attempts to tamp it down would lead to unintended consequences. And, since the consequences are so disparate from the original policies or actions (energy speculation), we often miss the forces involved. Who is the first to take blame? Everyone is pointing fingers at everyone else...

I do think we should have "nationionalized" the investment banks and insurance companies and car companies instead of bailing them out. Take them over, fire and sell-off the assets to the highest bidders. This is part of what happened, but some of the baddies got away. And now they are back to their old games...

Banks Just Keep Getting Frothier

@Michael Clark - you may be right about getting leadership that puts bankers in the crosshairs, but I wouldn't "bank" on that :) You seem to underestimate the effective stranglehold that these cartels have on the economy. They now have a lot more zeros to prop-up this economy in whatever way they see fit. If they "crash" the economy before the next major election, you may get your wish. I will bet that the economy will be flat to marginally "better" by 2012 despite all the naysaying.

Andrew Jackson was the last POTUS to ride a wave of anti-banker sentiment, and my historical perspective is that he utterly failed to "fixed" the problem. The free banking era was a disaster in allocation of resources - there was massive massive corruption that was largely hidden from the people. Whatever you want to say about the current Fed, it has provided the best solution in regulating the most important industry in the history of history. The money supply is the basis of our national power (not just wealth) - it is as powerful in many ways as the tanks and bombs that protect it. It is already highly regulated. And, we need to continue to fine-tune the regulatory framework around Fed policy.

Now, the real problem is that we have a Congress that is primed to create even more opportunities for its supporters (i.e. banks and other mega-corps) for speculation and manipulation. The Energy and Health Care bills now before congress are RIPE for abuse. I am sure the majors are lining-up now to figure out how to abuse these new systems much like how they abused the housing system which lead to the massive defaults we see today. Not that they want default, but it is a natural consequence of government intervention and lack of oversight into these markets... I am afraid this is the nature of things - we create things we don't know how to regulate then complain about problems they create.

The Dems have been particularly adept at talking about how the rich get richer. All that while they bail-out the rich on the premise that if the rich get poor, the poor will get lots poorer. It is the very definition of insanity. And, the people have no real choice. The duopoly of political power in the US has made all this standard fare for how things "change". From what I see, the only "change" we will have is that left in our pockets along with some lint. These people have no remorse or thought about how their policies or practices utterly enslave the "little people" - we have been, and will always be, under the thumb of people not much different from Gaius, Silla, Crassus to Stalin, Hitler, Polpot, Mao, Bush, and Obama...

Not fare to compare our "nice" guys to other Tyrants? Why is it unfair? They all seek to subjugate us with taxation without representation, they conduct wars in perpetuity, to murder in the name of the state, to enlarge their supporters at the expense of the indefensible, to continue to support policies which lead to the deaths of millions and millions every year of the most indefensible class of people (the unborn), to levy endlessly increasing taxes in support of their war state, to be completely unaccountable in our elections (elections are a complete joke), to enslave our children even in the smallest matters with a public indoctrination system (err education to some of you) where in a failure to "pledge allegiance" to the flag gets you booted for the day, to subject us to a neo-eugenics movement to control every aspect of our health and welfare (single payer and its variants), to utterly enslave our spirits to an abandoned godless end. There is only one recourse in this matter, and I pray that He shows mercy to their souls.

FCC Takes On Apple and AT&T over Google Voice Rejection

@Don Bowey - your defense of AT&T's practice needs to be mediated by the fact that AT&T has had preferential use of *public* rights of way for over a century. That it has sought to destroy any competitive system that would, in our national interest, seek to lower costs and entry into communication systems. The nation has no inherent need to keep AT&T's communication system intact in whatever way AT&T would like to keep it. It's not their wires or airwaves despite all the lies from AT&T. Those wires and airwaves are granted by the people for a limited time so that their investment in the wires and airwaves can be recouped. This doesn't mean we grant these rights in perpetuity. We don't owe AT&T anything for the monopoly bestowed on it for the last century. It's time to really break-up the continued AT&T monopoly. And, the best way for government to limit the power of these significant non-state actors is to regulated them with open standards and open markets.

Bonds: Dropping Real Yields Indicate Inflation on Horizon

Nice graph - there is more to read from it. First, I agree that Bernanke, if reappointed, would focus on keeping inflation in a manageable target zone, even if they have to fudge it a bit more than they already do.

Lots of money was added across the money supply in the 70's - this inevitably lead to systemic inflation. The difference with today is the way the Fed expanded. Much of the new money was added in M3. The stimulus monies are small in relative terms to previous stimulus streaks.

It really comes down to how Banks lend in this environment, and how the majors allocate money flow. The environment is still ripe for speculative distortions, but there are (supposedly) tighter oversight into money flows.

Obama doesn't seem like a risk taker. He will keep Bernanke. Obama will probably pull for housing stimulus behind the scenes since it supplies much of the back drop for middle class wealth. If the middle class feels worse in 3 years, he will have a tough sell.

Jon Stewart Takes on Goldman Sachs [Video]

Why bash GS for its excellent management of employee and shareholder value? Their doing exactly what any good company would do in these times - watch out for their interest.

Is it their fault that Bush, Obama, most Democrats, and a handful of Republicans bailed them out? They would have survived the storm without the bailout - hell, it would have further weakened competitors if there was no bailout.

The Court Jesters always have a twist that makes themselves look humble and self-righteous while they lambast the evil doers.

Why I'm Buying Micron- Part II

Aptina was their only profitable division for 6 consecutive quarters... Aptina will continue to be profitable - that is why they are keeping a 35% stake in the spinoff. Duh.

The Economic Trifecta: Inflation, Devaluation, High Interest

On May 31 04:28 AM spqrusa wrote:

> Ok - put away the crystal ball and let us all get back to earth.
> Even with all the added zeros on Fed balance sheets, inflation would
> only occur if those added zeros pursue commodities. With the declines
> in manufacturing, increased savings, the general retrenchment of
> consumers, and moderated demand in emerging economies, we don't see
> significant long-term movement on raw materials.

You seem to put a lot of stock in the American consumer. With household debt at 100% of GDP, he is not coming back for a long time. The 2.5 billion people in China and India, though, WILL consume, though. Those nations' middle classes are tiny compared with ours, but their combined populations are more than 8 times our own. Even if a small percentage of their populations are middle class, that will be a significant consumer base. These Chinese and Indian consumers, then, will certainly be purchasing cars, consumer products, and energy.

Carlos - I don't put any "stock in the American consumer". You must have confused my post with someone else's post. I think there is a general retrenchment of consumers in America, i.e. they are wary of returning to go-go spending attitudes.

I very much agree that the emerging economies consumer's will power the distant future. But you have to remember that GDP/head and Spending/head in the emerging economies still has a long way to go before they create a comparable "middle class" - maybe 20-30 years before they reach parity with USA/EU regions assuming the same relative growth/wealth rates.

Microsoft Squandering Cash on a Meaningless Product

I agree with LA Tech that GOOG has a much tougher road. As a software developer, I would still rather deal the MSFT or AAPL than GOOG. The App Engine and Android developer experiences are quite amateurish. MSFT and AAPL are way-way-way ahead of GOOG in just about every aspect as a technology provider company.

The other aspect of BING that is missing here is that MSFT needs to dent GOOGs mind share. BING is largely a marketing exercise - the technology side of BING is quite unremarkable. MSFT needs to keep GOOG from turning into a company that can compete into MSFTs core markets.

UAW Still Made No Sacrifices to Make General Motors Competitive

I agree with MHFT - GM relied on the boomers and pre-boomers as the customer base. My problem with GM was the quality of the dealerships and warranties. My one, and only, GM car visited the dealer too often, and it returned with more problems at every visit. Maybe I just got a bad car, but the internet is littered with GM dealer complaints. I can't say the same thing about my BMW, Audi or Toyota cars.

The Economic Trifecta: Inflation, Devaluation, High Interest

Ok - put away the crystal ball and let us all get back to earth. Even with all the added zeros on Fed balance sheets, inflation would only occur if those added zeros pursue commodities. With the declines in manufacturing, increased savings, the general retrenchment of consumers, and moderated demand in emerging economies, we don't see significant long-term movement on raw materials. Speculation in commodities may spook people to hedge against inflation, but that would be a mistake.

The major factor keeping the USA in the game is the perceived value of the dollar and US based assets. People want to live here. People still feel secure in the US compared any other open economy. Sure, people could start to lust for land and life in Sweden or Finland where economies are more resistant to global gyrations, but there are too many barriers in these other "safe" economies. The spark is still here in the US. The Chinese figured this out with their unique form of state capitalism, and as long as we don't repeat the bad habits of prior anti-capitalist movements, we will continue to lead the world in wealth creation.