Tricky

Tricky
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  • Wall Street Breakfast: More Market Jitters As Japan Stocks Dive  [View article]
    VNIRP?
    Feb 9, 2016. 04:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: More Market Jitters As Japan Stocks Dive  [View article]
    Per usual, I'll betray my centrist tendencies...

    Agree that any US money should be focused directly on addressing the specific issue (rather than typical pile-on's). Also agree the devil is always in the details. Also agree Brazil should bear the majority of burden for dealing with Zika in Brazil.

    That said, this is a public health issue, so "public health systems" are going to have to bolstered to deal with it (yes, devil in details of what that means). CDC should be involved and "help out" (hopefully more w/ expertise than buckets of dollars) so that a South & Central American issue doesn't become a big US issue.

    Cheerio.
    Feb 9, 2016. 11:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: More Market Jitters As Japan Stocks Dive  [View article]
    Meh. POTUS often get credit (and blame) for economic outcomes which are often driven by phenomena that have little/no control over -- Eisenhower's boom b/c all the competitors were wiped out; Carter having to contend w/ oil embargo; Clinton's Internet 1.0 boom (Gore's claims notwithstanding).
    Feb 9, 2016. 11:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: More Market Jitters As Japan Stocks Dive  [View article]
    Actually, the post WWII debt was paid down according to the Ray Dalio "beautiful deleveraging" playbook -- you mentioned two of the parts, but left out the 3rd -- inflation. Take a look at the inflation stats right after WWII. We inflated away ~40% of the debt over 3-4 years. "thanks, war bond buyers!"
    Feb 9, 2016. 11:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: More Market Jitters As Japan Stocks Dive  [View article]
    Lots of things are amazing in the lab ;-)
    Feb 9, 2016. 11:25 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North Korea fires rocket over Okinawa  [View news story]
    @leopard,

    I wouldn't be so sure that South Korea REALLY wants to unite. I wish I could find this, but someone did a really interesting analysis comparing a potential Korean reunification to what happened in Germany after the Berlin Wall fell. In comparison, the burden of reunification would be MUCH harder on South Korea than it was on the former West Germany. IIRC, because: 1) the SK/NK populations are closer in size than WG/EG were, and 2) NK is waaaaay poorer compared to SK, than WG/EG.

    Another telling anecdote -- when a NK delegation came to visit Seoul, during a recent faux-friendly period, some NK minions were carrying a portrait of one of the Kim depots. It started to rain. The minions started genuinely scurrying about in a panic to protect the sacred picture. The SK onlookers were so taken aback that, for the first time, the media started to openly question "who ARE these people now and do we really want to reunify with them, COULD we?"

    More broadly, I don't take it as a given that they MUST unite. While they may have had centuries as a unified peninsula, they've lived apart for quite awhile now, and there are lots of important "facts on the ground" separating them.

    If China is going to help NK take SK by force, that seems to be way down the priority list.

    Russia? Nah. They've got higher priority fish to fry to their south and west.
    Feb 7, 2016. 06:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • North Korea fires rocket over Okinawa  [View news story]
    Leopard is not from NK, but he's most decidedly outside the realm of pro-US media. Sometimes I find his thoughts a useful counterbalance to our own "Murica!!" propaganda (i.e., Russia/Ukraine). But sometimes he's out to lunch ;-)

    This is one of the latter. Leopard -- seriously. NK is under no threat of invasion from "the West" and everyone knows it (we learned that lesson after MacArthur got fired for "provoking" the Chinese to cross the Yalu River). NK is impoverished because of the despicable and despotic Kim family, not because of US sanctions. I lived in SK for a year, although they may wistfully wish for a united Korean peninsula (and obviously wish families could be reunited), NK is such a mess that SK probably doesn't REALLY want it all that bad -- it would crater the SK economy.

    The Kim family doesn't want peace. It needs to throw its periodic tantrums to shake down the international community for cash. And keeping things at a state of war helps justify "the security regime". Why should we trust them to keep any treaties? Remember when NK hoodwinked Clinton and Albright on the "give us fuel to make it thru next winter and we pinky-swear that we'll stop our nuke program"?
    Feb 7, 2016. 04:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Twitter set to launch algorithmic (non-chronological) Timeline feed (updated)  [View news story]
    I'd like to see the case for how that point of view fits the data re: relative stock performance between the companies.
    Feb 6, 2016. 05:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Market Awaits Jobs Report  [View article]
    blueline -- I agree that spraying DDT is a case by case thing, with pros and cons that need to be weighed in each case. If you've got huge swarms that are actively inflicting malaria, the case starts to favor the spraying. If there are light swarms in a lightly afflicted area, or the affliction is not as serious, it's a tougher call.

    People tend to forget why we did the large-scale spraying before, a victim of its success (like, nearly eradicating smallpox and measles only to have modern families opt out, on the advice of medical gurus like Jenny McCarthy and Jim Carrey). Yes, the spraying had after effects, but the alternative might have been to let malaria run rampant.

    Sometimes it's literally a "pick your poison"
    Feb 5, 2016. 07:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Market Awaits Jobs Report  [View article]
    If I were a M&A arbitrage trader, I'd bet against the feds allowing a merger of Hasbro and Mattel unless there were so many spinoffs you'd wonder what's the point.

    But we shall see.
    Feb 5, 2016. 08:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Market Awaits Jobs Report  [View article]
    For today's daily Zika discussion, I give a tip of the hat to both CNN and Fox News for some informative and mature coverage (at least in these articles, as of 7:45a ET) on the ins/outs of mosquito control and spraying DDT, in particular. Fox also takes on whether immigration control would help the cause.

    http://fxn.ws/1K2uoEi

    http://cnn.it/1KsLjQc
    Feb 5, 2016. 07:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Equities-Oil Relationship Gets Warmer  [View article]
    Given how little is known about Zika right now, there isn't any specific prophylaxis or cure right now. Just don't get bit. I don't purport to know which method is best at the personal level.

    Mosquitoes are one of main reasons that we Central/South Texans have so much affection for our massive brown bat colonies -- they eat tons of those [bleep]ers every night.
    Feb 4, 2016. 08:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Equities-Oil Relationship Gets Warmer  [View article]
    If you're weaponizing a pathogen, you would pick one that is already: 1) lethal to humans, and 2) human <> human contagious
    Feb 4, 2016. 05:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Equities-Oil Relationship Gets Warmer  [View article]
    I hadn't heard about that. You might want to ask a Wilderness Medicine specialist, kind of a sub-specialty of physician.
    Feb 4, 2016. 04:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: ChemChina Makes $43B Offer For Syngenta  [View article]
    I haven't committed any crimes. Does anyone have a link to where I can apply for back pay?
    Feb 4, 2016. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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