Seeking Alpha

Tricky

Tricky
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Tricky's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Check this stunning visualization of the various types and layers of U.S. debt, including a $114T skyscraper of unfunded liabilities. "If you still think the government are the best people to manage your money after [seeing] this, please come and see me about some magic beans I have to offer you."  [View news story]
    Tomas/Cincinnatus,

    The reason I was talking about counties (and now that I think about it more, I believe the studies actually went down to zip code) was because that is how the data were assembled. If the main problem was "banks were forced to make bad loans to minorities", then the data would have shown concentrations of failure in poor zip codes for owned homes. But the concentrations are actually in investment properties for above-average zip codes. That's the available data. Now, being intellectually honest, I suppose there *is* a possibility that this reflects a bunch of minorities being given loans for investment properties in "nice" zip codes, but that seems quite unlikely to me.

    Make no mistake, I'm not an apologist for the Dems. I think the legitimate, and far more important, thing you CAN lay on them is their take-no-prisoners protection of FNMA. But beyond that, the other major keys were rating agencies rubberstamping AAA's on turds and total lack of effective regulation in allowing Wall Street to create so much crap by letting them lever up so high and also hide it in BS classifications of it being "off balance sheet" items. What set off the crisis is not the mere creation of the crap, it was the massive concentrations of crap in a few "TBTF" institutions. You can thank plenty of Rep's for that, Wall Street owns both sides of the aisle.
    Jul 22 08:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Check this stunning visualization of the various types and layers of U.S. debt, including a $114T skyscraper of unfunded liabilities. "If you still think the government are the best people to manage your money after [seeing] this, please come and see me about some magic beans I have to offer you."  [View news story]
    I was talking specifically about subprime mortgages. Even those that went bad were primarily in "not poor" counties and were very disproportionately represented by investment properties.
    Jul 21 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Check this stunning visualization of the various types and layers of U.S. debt, including a $114T skyscraper of unfunded liabilities. "If you still think the government are the best people to manage your money after [seeing] this, please come and see me about some magic beans I have to offer you."  [View news story]
    This theory doesn't square well with the data that the counties with the biggest mortgage failure rates were not "poor" neighborhoods and with a hugely disproportionate share of rental properties (not something that too many poor minorities own).

    But it was a good rant, other than that.

    The much bigger problems were ineffective reigning in of FNMA/ FHLMC and letting the TBTF's lever up in such a massive way. Oh, and effectively no regulation on mortgage fraud.
    Jul 21 09:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ronald Reagan on the debt ceiling: "Unfortunately, Congress consistently brings the Government to the edge of default before facing its responsibility. This brinkmanship threatens the holders of government bonds and those who rely on Social Security and veterans benefits. Interest rates would skyrocket, instability would occur in financial markets, and the federal deficit would soar."  [View news story]
    Using Ronald Reagan's words against Republicans is dirty. Almost as dirty as noting Senator Obama's votes against raising the debt ceiling.

    Ah, hypocrisy -- it flourisheth so broadly.
    Jul 21 06:07 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Lithium-Ion Battery Glut Will Be Massive [View article]
    John, for purposes of the conversation, I'll take your statement at face value. However, doesn't it implicitly hold the current "state of the art" as a set parameter and contain the assumption that there will be no technological advancements that don't find ways to use less (or even none) of these critical resources?

    Just as one illustrative example, I read over the last few days that GE got DOE funding to develop a wind turbine supermagnet that would use 1/5 the rare earth elements. Who knows if this particular initiative will succeed (and when). Is there not also the possibility of developing man-made rare earths (again, admittedly, something not available in the near term)?

    This is a new area for me, so I'm just throwing out food for thought, to get reactions and learn. Thanks in advance to anyone with thoughtful replies.
    Jul 21 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Following hours of talks late into the night, Germany and France come to agreement on a new bailout for Greece. Details were not released, but the plan includes a contribution from the EU banking sector. The euro and stock index futures spike higher on the news, but the half-life of the bounce from these rescue plans is shrinking all the time.  [View news story]
    My money is on -- it's a "voluntary rollover" that's really an involuntary haircut in the form of a special "banking tax"?
    Jul 20 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Former Sen. (now Goldman adviser) Judd Gregg says there's a better than 50-50 chance of a government shutdown before Congress agrees on a debt ceiling deal. "My gut tells me that we'll need a weekend of drama, maybe a weekend of the government not paying its bills. Politicians need drama to make something happen."  [View news story]
    Don't fool yourself, Wall Street owns both sides of the aisle
    Jul 20 08:17 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple vs. Research In Motion in Enterprise: Game Over [View article]
    The way I read Frank's post is that Apple is not yet ready to finish off RIMM in enterprise because the management/security tools aren't there yet. I'm a little surprised Apple hasn't invested a bit more of its ginormous cash horde towards this. Could they? Sure, absolutely.

    But for enterprise, the backend matters a lot, it's not just the user-facing sex that matters. Without those tools, it costs a lot more to support it. In high margin companies with highly skilled workers, the workers have a better chance of prevailing at a "demand" that the iPhone be adapted as the corporate standard. But that isn't going to play well in companies with a different profile of employee power. And in general, employees don't have a lot of power right now.
    Jul 20 03:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple vs. Research In Motion in Enterprise: Game Over [View article]
    My working hypothesis is that RIMM won't "vanish" in the sense of Chapter 7 (or whatever it's called in Canada), but it will be taken over by *someone* who values some of the worthwhile parts. But I haven't jumped in yet.
    Jul 20 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple vs. Research In Motion in Enterprise: Game Over [View article]
    Re: your first paragraph, my answer "yes, actually". You can give an iPad to an individual EMPLOYEE of a F500 company and count that as a "test" at the company. Even a "deployment" could just be one tiny group using them -- for instance, the social media team using iPhones, while all the rest of the organization is on BB's.

    But hey, more broadly, we're in agreement that the momentum is strongly pro-AAPL/ negative for RIMM. I'm just calling BS on BS metrics ;-)
    Jul 20 03:20 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple vs. Research In Motion in Enterprise: Game Over [View article]
    Rocco, I am no RIMM apologist, especially as I see no visible spark that is going to turn that ship around.

    But I find the whole "metric" of "testing or deploying" to be super-squishy. If an Apple enterprise sales rep gives one of his clients (who didn't ask for it) a free iPhone and says "play with it", does that count as a "test"?

    When they start talking about real *displacements* of RIMM, that's when it is truly all over but the crying.
    Jul 20 03:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What do you know -- a Robert Reich article I can buy into
    Jul 20 12:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The CFPB opens for business tomorrow aiming to curb mortgage and credit card abuses, even as the fight over who leads the agency rages on. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell threatens to hold up the nomination of Obama-pick Richard Cordray if the new agency isn't made more accountable and transparent.  [View news story]
    Is McConnell concerned about the banks' lack of accountability and transparency?
    Jul 20 12:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As the future of Rupert Murdoch's dynasty is thrown into doubt, News Corp.'s (NWS) line of defense in the U.S. begins to take shape: Blame the liberal media. "We trust that readers can see through the commercial and ideological motives of our competitor-critics," a WSJ editorial says. "The Schadenfreude is so thick you can't cut it with a chainsaw."  [View news story]
    Sounds about right. You don't see the same kinds of stories and behavior in their US properties as what they did in the UK. Looks to be limited to their UK tabloids.
    Jul 19 11:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As the future of Rupert Murdoch's dynasty is thrown into doubt, News Corp.'s (NWS) line of defense in the U.S. begins to take shape: Blame the liberal media. "We trust that readers can see through the commercial and ideological motives of our competitor-critics," a WSJ editorial says. "The Schadenfreude is so thick you can't cut it with a chainsaw."  [View news story]
    Hi Neil, the reason I don't draw a distinction between the "news show" and the "talk shows" is that Fox News leadership, up and down the line, is in lockstep for their political strategy. And that includes a great deal of deliberate misinformation.

    I will grant you that Dana Perino saying there no terrorist attacks on US soil under W, and Sarah Palin's initial idiotic account of Paul Revere's ride might be better classified as "bloopers". Bolling's repeat of Perino's blooper is deliberate misinformation. Hannity trying to help Palin justify her totally erroneous history of Revere's ride -- for the purposes of misusing American history to evangelize her political views re: 2nd amendment -- is deliberate misinformation.

    And the clearest example of deliberate misinformation that I provided above is Huckabee's repeat of Kyl's lie about Planned Parenthood. It was exposed as a lie, widely and publicly, in between Kyl saying it and Huckabee saying it. And Fox News, as an organization, is invested in Huckabee evangelizing his politics, even if it requires lies such as that one. Fox News the organization fully supports that. Just as they do with all their "personalities". And yes, MSNBC follows the same playbook.
    Jul 19 06:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,547 Comments
2,886 Likes