Tricky

Tricky
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  • Austerity Continues To Fail Greece  [View article]
    Indeed, the Germans are vendor-financing a customer who is not able to pay. You cut off those kinds of customers.
    Dec 12, 2011. 11:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2:30 is the new 7:30 as European events becoming the driver of financial assets across the planet force traders to monitor their screens throughout the pre-dawn hours. "We have a new credo: carpe noctem - seize the night," says Doug Kass. "Who would have thought we would have to be looking at Italian sovereign debt yields to figure out what Morgan Stanley's stock will do," says Mike Mayo. Market Currents is on the job then too; do check out our coverage.   [View news story]
    Like Rush's defense of the Lord's Resistance Army as "Christians under attack by Obama"? LOL
    Dec 11, 2011. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2:30 is the new 7:30 as European events becoming the driver of financial assets across the planet force traders to monitor their screens throughout the pre-dawn hours. "We have a new credo: carpe noctem - seize the night," says Doug Kass. "Who would have thought we would have to be looking at Italian sovereign debt yields to figure out what Morgan Stanley's stock will do," says Mike Mayo. Market Currents is on the job then too; do check out our coverage.   [View news story]
    That's why I never got into currency trading -- no rest for the wicked
    Dec 11, 2011. 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Austerity Continues To Fail Greece  [View article]
    Yep. You know the guiding rule of doing deals on Wall Street (or City of London)... "I'll be gone, you'll be gone"
    Dec 11, 2011. 02:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Euro Doom And Gloom Is Overdone  [View article]
    I can understand that countries want to be given the German money without having any checks on their profligate ways. But that doesn't seem fair to the Germans.

    The alternative is for profligate countries to not take the German money. That solution is always available.

    Yeah, I'd like to have my cake and eat it too. But that is not a reasonable expectation.
    Dec 11, 2011. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Euro Doom And Gloom Is Overdone  [View article]
    Hello Martin. The reason I don't see any way out that doesn't involve massive pain (no, I don't think the world will implode) is the basic math when one steps back and looks at the big picture. There are three large numbers that will sink whatever plan is set in place -- the sheer amount of sovereign debt, the sheer exposure of European banks to that debt, and the rate of increasing sovereign debt whether or not austerity is thrown at it.

    One can try to cleverly rearrange who holds what pieces, but at the end of the day, the only thing that prevents *immediate* catastrophe is (essentially) the Germans getting loaded up with so much direct/indirect exposure to sovereign + bank debt, with an unsustainable rate of increase in that debt, that it gets sunk too.
    Dec 11, 2011. 09:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Austerity Continues To Fail Greece  [View article]
    "What Greece needs is an extended time span to achieve a better budget."

    Right. Because a country that has been in default for half its modern history, cooked its books to get into a club it simply doesn't qualify for, doesn't seem to be able to collect taxes, fights any new attempt to collect taxes, feels it has the right to retire on full pension at some of the earliest ages in the world, has little the rest of the world wants to buy, is unproductive, and isn't really a 1st world country... just needs a little more time, because Germany OWES it to them. But this time they *swear* they'll change.

    The best thing for Europe to do is cut off the parasite.
    Dec 11, 2011. 09:01 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Little noticed in the EU press statements is a line from Sarkozy suggesting yesterday's move to ease bank access to ECB funding will allow lenders to buy nearly unlimited amounts of government debt. "This means that each state can turn to its banks, which will have liquidity at their disposal." There you have it.   [View news story]
    This sounds like one of those "lift yourself off the ground by pulling your own shoelaces" kinds of schemes
    Dec 9, 2011. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gates confirms his latest pet project is helping China set up a new and safer type of nuclear reactor. A Gates-funded tech firm - TerraPower - is developing a Generation IV reactor that can run decades on depleted uranium and produce much smaller amounts of nuclear waste than traditional reactors. China's growing interest in nuclear stands in contrast to Germany's potentially-costly abandonment of the power source and a now decades-long stagnant program in the U.S.  [View news story]
    I would think that Gates would love for the US to adopt "small nuke", but the US doesn't appear willing to do that. So he's going where it will be accepted. Look on the bright side -- when China shows it works, maybe everyone else will start calming down.

    Small nuke is WAY cheaper and safer than big nuke. But few people are willing to listen to reason right now, post Fukushima.
    Dec 7, 2011. 10:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Several EU states are urging Germany to drop its demand for treaty changes, Reuters reports, saying that the alterations would take too long and that the process is fraught with risks, and that deeper fiscal integation can anyway be achieved within the existing laws.   [View news story]
    "I would have gotten away with it, if it weren't for you meddling kids"

    -- every Scooby Doo villain
    Dec 5, 2011. 10:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expansionary Austerity?  [View article]
    "A good compromise would be to do a short-run stimulus while at the same time addressing the long-run structural drivers of public deficits and debts".

    Completely agree. But wish we could count on politicians (and the various electorates around the world, it must be said) to deliver on the 2nd half of that. Unfortunately, I do not think we can.
    Nov 27, 2011. 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Online sales jumped 24.3% this Black Friday. Department stores led the way with a 59% jump in online sales. Stronger than expected demand suggests there may be a disconnect between what consumers tell pollsters and how they actually spend.   [View news story]
    You'll never make it into the Seeking Alpha Cool Kids Club with talk like that ;-)
    Nov 26, 2011. 07:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Euro Rescue Fiasco  [View article]
    So if you're providing vendor financing to a customer that doesn't pay...
    Nov 26, 2011. 09:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even if euro zone bonds do become a reality, don't look for China to bail Europe out, says China Market Research's Shaun Rein. China has its own problems to deal with, and with a high level of internal opposition to subsidizing Europe's "extravagant lifestyle," it has no intention of becoming Europe's "white knight."   [View news story]
    As you well know, TARP was administered by a government presiding over private sector enterprises over which it had the authority to exert control, both explicitly and implicitly, in order to ensure payback one day. Not sure how that applies to any prospective Chinese bailout of Euro sovereigns. Why would the Chinese believe they'd ever get their money back?
    Nov 25, 2011. 02:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The latest round of bank stress tests could actually harm the fragile banking system, and possibly push the U.S. back into a recession, says Dick Bove. The stringent conditions posed by the Fed will force banks to boost their reserves more than what's necessary, strangling bank profits and tightening credit conditions in an already struggling US economy.   [View news story]
    Bove is right. We should let the banks lever up to 40:1 so we can enjoy the glory days just prior to 2008.
    Nov 25, 2011. 01:43 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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