Dave Lewenz

And Bernanke Didn't Think Unemployment Would Reach 10%

While fortune 500 companies have abated layoffs expect thought’s that are consolidated, which we will see a lot more of, IE Pulte – Centex, just announced 800 lay offs due to merger. Wait to you see the Black and Decker numbers which could be around 5 thousands, The vast majority of unemployment entries into the market are now small business that are closing their doors. This could be a spiraling effect that no amount of government intervention can prevent unless banks start loaning again. We could see 15% by end of 2010


On Nov 08 06:24 AM Steve in Greensboro wrote:

> Don't worry, Mr. Slavo. All we need to do is more of what we have
> been doing: print more money and have another stimulus or two. Plus,
> let's raise taxes by socializing medicine, taxing carbon dioxide
> emissions, allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire in 2011, imposing
> a VAT, etc. Plus, let's impose massive tariffs like the G-20's "balanced
> trade" plan. Paul Krugman thinks these are all good ideas and he
> has a Nobel prize -- in economics!
>
> Happy days are here again!

How Will This Depression Differ from Previous Ones?

The economic conditions today are no way comparable to the 1920-30's. With a banking system that is insolvent, a real-estate industry booth residential and commercial that has 20-30% devaluation yet to come, creates a vacuum in the financial system that will bring the average business to fail, due to lack of cash flow and ability to borrow against future historical earnings. This by it’s self does not allow for an economic recovery and does not permit new job creation.

Rick Santelli's Rant: A Response

Time is running out, if we Americans do not take swift action and gets our government out of waste full spending, focusing only on investments in new technology that equals a dollar spent returns five dollars back, we will be heading for a depression that will make 1929 look like a cake walk. We are a nation of Debtors without a plan to dig out of this muddy mess with new technology that can create jobs and free us from oil, the problem is that it will take time, which we are running out of.


On Feb 23 06:01 AM NITRAM wrote:

> Its amazing how many of you brilliant people have such great hindsight.
> You and all the members of the financial world knew these problems
> years ago. What did you do to help stop it. You are a pompus ----.
> Rick is the only person to call it as it is. Obama is a nightmare
> of a president. He will make Jimmy Carter look good. You are right,
> we dont need a Tea Party. We need a new DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE.
> Obama treats us worse than the king did.

Why Am I Buying Lennar? No Good Reason

Lennar has more problems then a leopard. The Chinese drywall mess in south Florida, over 100 homes and counting, this could cost them 200 million dollars, Law suits on co-mingling funds in land deals out west, and with no turn around in sight, not sure if they have the cash reserves to keep the doors open much past this year

Homebuilders Agree: January Was A Good Month

The home building market has a long way to go before any significant uptrend. Until the forclosure market is washed out, it is impossible to have a rebound. A rebound only occurs when demand exceeds supply, with job losses approach depression levels in 2009-2010 coupled with lost equity among potential home buyers and afraid to stick their toe in the water. The new housing market may return to life in 2011-2012.

Treasury's $78 Billion TARP Giveaway

What has happened and will happen in the next six months will turn this country into a debt pit that has no ability to ever repay the loans on treasury bills. The band will stop playing and their will be no chairs to sit down on.

Auto Sales Continue to Slide Downhill

The Tears come to my eyes, as we watch our great nation implode around us. When the motor city CEO'S of the little three testify before congress and the senate, they swore on a stack of bibles, that ten million three hundred thousand units would be sold in 2009. I said no way Henry!

Try 7-8million units at best. And guess what??? We are heading down the road to hit the 7.5 mm unit number, which means all auto plants in the USA can shut down now and not open back till summer!!! That will be how the story plays out, taking down Chrysler in a fire sale and hundreds of tier two suppliers and one or two tier one suppliers in 2009, and we will also lose 2,000 dealers this year to boot!

Auto Sales Continue to Slide Downhill

The Tears come to my eyes, as we watch our great nation implode around us. When the motor city CEO'S of the little three testify before congress and the senate, they swore on a stack of bibles, that ten million three hundred thousand units would be sold in 2009. I said no way Henry!

Try 7-8million units at best. And guess what??? We are heading down the road to hit the 7.5 mm unit number, which means all auto plants in the USA can shut down now and not open back till summer!!! That will be how the story plays out, taking down Chrysler in a fire sale and hundreds of tier two suppliers and one or two tier one suppliers in 2009, and we will also lose 2,000 dealers this year to boot!

REITs: Could It Be Time?

Strip mall and national retailers who lease space, will fall flat on their face this next year. I would not be surprised by year end 2009, that half of the nations national retailers are on the ropes, closing stores and filing for Chapter 11 protection. This depression will make 1929 look like a cake walk due to the amount of Debt that will never get repaid causing a lack of new capital to pull out and rebuild and the goverment does not have the ability to save every one.

CEOs See Trouble on the Way

The inability for the banking system to work properly is the root cause of the present business conditions. As credit gets cut off the main life blood of every business, contraction will grow worse, causing more lay offs. The ability of the new administration to understand the importance of injecting capital into new technologies is the only hope the country has. We sure can not compete in the general MFG industry for goods and services, the Detroit three have proven that to date. We MFG no electronics, fewer and fewer consumer goods, resulting in a steep cliff that unemployed workers are jumping off. Kind of hard to regain any control, when you are laid off at $28 dollars an hour and get rehired at $12.50 per hour. Ross Perot was correct, ONE BIG SUCKING SOUND.

Credit Crisis Watch: Are the Markets Thawing?

The availability of credit for small business is all but none existing. Our company has had its American Express credit line cut off and for no reason, We never have been late on a payment, nor have we ever missed a payment and have always paid more off our line then the minimum required.
We see no slow down in residential foreclosures, If you look at the top ten markets for foreclosures prices are heading down ward steadily indicating future losses for the banks. Commercial space vacancies are increasing significantly across the country putting additional pressure on landlords and their abilities to make mortgage payments on their properties. The amount of corporate debt for marginal companies is yet another shoe to drop next year, as decrease in cash flow does not allow for debt service for many companies. We are no were near the bottom.

GM Volt: Dream Car or Road to Bankruptcy?

The ability of GM to turn around its North American Operations is marginal at best. If you look at the product line and lack of American acceptance which is evident in monthly sales reports. Burning a Billion of dollars of cash a month, with falling sales numbers which has been the case for the last 60 months, demonstrates the companies inability to Wright it self to a profitable company. Now take a deepening recession that appears based on consumer spending habits over the last 6 months may turn out to resemble the 1930’s

What you end up with is a company that simply runs out of money some time next year, as the burn rate of a billion will significantly increase based on double digit sales losses for the foreseeable future.

The word BRANDING can be debated at GM is debated every day. But the GM Brand’s do not carry a positive thought in many American consumers eye. Turning around the GM brand’s will require a tremendous amount of creative marketing and money neither of which they have today.

Think about REASON TO CHANGE YOUR AUTO BRAND AS A CONSUMER? American foreign car buyers love their cars and continue to repurchase Asian and German brands. One only has to look at the beer wars between 1979-1990. Anheuser Busch spent billions of dollars to convert young Miller, Stroh, Coors drinkers, they were successful, but it took selling to a new generation and converting an existing consuming generation and 11 years to work.

GM Volt: Dream Car or Road to Bankruptcy?

The ability of GM to turn around its North American Operations is marginal at best. If you look at the product line and lack of American acceptance which is evident in monthly sales reports. Burning a Billion of dollars of cash a month, with falling sales numbers which has been the case for the last 60 months, demonstrates the companies inability to Wright it self to a profitable company. Now take a deepening recession that appears based on consumer spending habits over the last 6 months may turn out to resemble the 1930’s

What you end up with is a company that simply runs out of money some time next year, as the burn rate of a billion will significantly increase based on double digit sales losses for the foreseeable future.

The word BRANDING can be debated at GM is debated every day. But the GM Brand’s do not carry a positive thought in many American consumers eye. Turning around the GM brand’s will require a tremendous amount of creative marketing and money neither of which they have today.

Think about REASON TO CHANGE YOUR AUTO BRAND AS A CONSUMER? American foreign car buyers love their cars and continue to repurchase Asian and German brands. One only has to look at the beer wars between 1979-1990. Anheuser Busch spent billions of dollars to convert young Miller, Stroh, Coors drinkers, they were successful, but it took selling to a new generation and converting an existing consuming generation and 11 years to work.