GeminiAtlas

Will the Dollar Decline Forever?

As long as the Fed is in charge of the printing presses, of course the dollar will go down forever. That's what's happened in the last 90-odd years, hasn't it? The purchasing power of a dollar today is a tenth (probably less even) of what is was in 1913. That's what the congress wants because it imposes a tax without calling it a tax. Good thing most of the electorate is too stupid to realize it. :)
Except it lets them (congress) spend more than they receive in revenues so that eventually money supply is inflated to pay off its debts in depreciated money. I bet they laugh too "haha, suckers!"

Democrats Headed for a Train Wreck

Yes, I think I read somewhere that the US has an estimated 200M small arms (i.e. guns) of the 700M in the world. That's close to a third of the guns of the world in the hands of 1/20th of world's population. That's one reason any plans to invade the US Red Dawn-style would quickly be unworkable. In any case, any potential despot would have to find a pretext to take the guns (and ammo) away first. That's what happened in many other "utopian" regimes in the past, and those didn't turn out too well.


On Aug 19 01:19 PM baldskits wrote:

> We have more guns than people in the United States. When the people
> get pissed off enough, we will have a revolution. Just 10% of the
> population would be an army of 30,000,000 armed people. The French
> Revolution occurred with the less percentage.
>
> The things to change: Corporations are not persons because they cannot
> vote! Therefore, they cannot donate to politicians. This would clean
> up politics. Supreme Court term limits.

Dave's Top 10 Reasons This Recession Will Last Forever

I agree, it seems these days a lot of capital is risk averse. And aversion to risk and innovation don't mix.

On Aug 06 07:27 AM Andrew Butter wrote:

> How much of the innovation in the past was driven by easy money?
>
>
> I've done innovation, the key is getting money that doesn't ask hard
> questions.

Effects of the Stimulus Package: Felix Salmon Is Uncharacteristically Wrong

I agree, a much faster and much more efficient path would have been a tax cut. I just read a commentary by the columnist George Will "Tilting at Green Windmills" which cites a Spanish economist who did a study of the unemployment of Spain (18%, the worst in the EU) and spending on renewable energy by the government.
This seems very reminiscent of that. The vastly more inefficient political allocation of capital (vs. market allocation of capital) will just wind up destroying more jobs than it creates. In the study by the econ professor, it says for every green job that was created, 2.2 jobs were not created in other industries. So, I'm looking forward to when these stimuli start to "kick in", I'm sure it will do the trick. Yeah, right... let me get the popcorn and watch the train wreck of job destruction which will continute to unfold. I'm sure Bush, Obama, Paulson, Bernanke, Geithner, Pelosi etc. are giving each other high fives for a job well done.


On Jul 13 12:46 PM Socialism cannot compete! wrote:

> The correct (and only workable) stimulus would have been a 787B tax
> cut for both individuals and business. That would have been a return
> to taxpayers of their own money, instead of a largesse to the offenders
> who helped create this mess; that would have helped homeowners who
> are on the cusp by letting them use more of their own money where
> they need it most; that would have let employers retain more employees
> due to decreased cost per head.
>
> But no. Can't have that. Because that would have been a move in the
> direction of power to the people, instead of moving towards bigger,
> more-powerful entitlement government which can solve all our problems
> (tongue firmly embedded in cheek, perhaps irrevocably.)

How Come the Economic Stimulus Isn't Working?

Well, whatever stimulus does make it to the economy, that will quickly be neutralized by all the states (i.e. CA, AZ, etc) slashing their budgets and raising taxes to balance their budgets. With consumers (especially baby boomers trying to save up for retirement) deleveraging, there won't be a huge recovery. Probably the best scenario that we can hope for is a Japan-style lost decade where everything is flat.

2010 Budget: Pie in the Sky

It does seem like "rearranging the deck chairs on the SS Titanic" to me. The growing obligations (medicare, social security, etc) and debt servicing will crowd out everything else. The administration seems to think the economy will magically rebound and grow 5-6% in the out-years. What do they think, we're China? So either way, we seem to be sunk. Monetize the debt, or default, or raise taxes by an economy-crushing 60%... hmmm, It's so hard to decide. They are all so delicious. I hope I don't get a tummy ache.

Extending Medicare: Medical and National Suicide

The medical costs will not be reined in any time soon. What do you think is going to happen in the next 20 years when the baby boomer generation retires? The number of folks 65 or older will double in the next 20 years. And they use the most medical ( I read somewhere a full quarter of a person's lifetime medical costs come in the last 6 months of life) survices. That is the demand-side outlook. What about the supply-side outlook? The amount of new doctors and medical personnel will not keep pace with demand, so prices will go up, necessarily. Also, the supply of medical labor isn't exaclty elastic. Production of new doctors etc. doesn't turn on a dime. There are significant barriers to entry such as the schooling, but also, the malpractice insurance doctors have to pay (or shall I say, pass onto the consumer).
On another point, if the US goes to a nationalized health system which rations out health-care, who will be the innovator of health-care technology (prescription, medical imaging, surgical techniques, etc)? That will almost certainly go away as the payoff to innovate new medical tech would not be worth the cost or risk involved. That capital will go elsewhere. We can't have that. Where would other countries with socialized medicine get their new prescription drugs from? Or their new fMRI machines from? Their medical systems will become even worse without the US capitalist evil presciption-drug, biotech companies' help. :)

In Madoff We Trust

The government doesn't do it to enrich itself per se, but to "empower" itself. The currency of the politicians is power where money is just a means and not the end. Thus the more debt they can load upon the taxpayer gains the pols more power because it will necessitate tax increases in the future to pay the debt or monetization of the debt via inflation which will also garner power over the masses as their money becomes worthless. Not that this makes any sense, since just like riches, power does not go into the next world. Legacies last a long time though, and the leadership of congress amongst other institutions of the past 50 years, I'm sure will leave a lasting legacy, not necessarily a bright one.

Free Trade Agreements = Evaporated Jobs Worldwide

Food for petro-energy, sounds like a fair trade to me.
But seriously, the main issue is employability. Free trade should not be halted but indeed, must be accelerated. In the employability part, this is mainly a function of training and education. In that vein, the whole education system in the USA needs to be revamped. Less and less students are choosing to go into STEM (Science Tech Engineering Math) fields and into other fields. Who is going to do this R&D that would need to be done in order to create new products, technologies, whole new industries?
Permanent Jobs? I would say "continual employability" i.e. workers who keep learning new productivity enhancing skills. There is no such thing as a "permanent job." The only thing that is constant is change. Industries change, they get created, and then they get destroyed by newer, more efficient, innovative industries. I would also posit that many, many of those ~8.5M jobs were destroyed not be free trade, but by more and more automation. All those folks in manufacturing can lament that there are no jobs left for them, but they aren't coming back. Time to learn new skills and move onto something else.

The Real Cost of the 2008 Recession

Mr. Gordon,
Yeah sure, it was unconstitutional what Jefferson did, but do you think half the stuff that the folks down in Washington do is Constitutional? Of course not, but they do it anyways, because the public is too ill-informed to know better. At least with the Louisiana Purchase, that was the deal of that century. I do believe the senate ratified that deal post-facto.
What they are doing now,...deal of the century, not so much.

October 9, 2008: Remember the Date - This is Huge

CaptD, don't count on it, I believe tomorrow, they start to unravel/auction off Lehman's CDS portfolio. The banks are hoarding cash until they see if they get hit tomorrow or not with big default payouts. Hopefully it won't make too much ripples, but you never know...