David at Imperial Beach's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/2656291/comments http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/667901?source=feed#comment-11642541 11642541 Thu, 15 Nov 2012 11:29:26 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/667901?source=feed#comment-11642041 11642041 Thu, 15 Nov 2012 11:21:21 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1008941/comments?source=feed#comment-11637231 11637231
Personally, I am of the humble opinion that instruction set is important, and ARM has already won the war in the cell phone market. If Intel wants to compete at the commodity end of the market it's going to need an ARM chip.]]> Thu, 15 Nov 2012 09:54:50 -0500
Personally, I am of the humble opinion that instruction set is important, and ARM has already won the war in the cell phone market. If Intel wants to compete at the commodity end of the market it's going to need an ARM chip.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1008941/comments?source=feed#comment-11636771 11636771 Thu, 15 Nov 2012 09:46:42 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1005961/comments?source=feed#comment-11590891 11590891 Wed, 14 Nov 2012 10:47:38 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1005821/comments?source=feed#comment-11589891 11589891
Also, labor costs in developing countries are not stable. As workers become more educated in western economics, and as job availability increases, the workers demand more pay. I remember when I was working for a software company that was outsourcing part of its workforce to India. That area of India was seeing a rapid rise in job availability. We started to see a big employee retention problem right away. Often a new hire would simply fail to show up for work as they had gotten a better job offer between the time they accepted our offer and the first day of work.]]> Wed, 14 Nov 2012 10:29:14 -0500
Also, labor costs in developing countries are not stable. As workers become more educated in western economics, and as job availability increases, the workers demand more pay. I remember when I was working for a software company that was outsourcing part of its workforce to India. That area of India was seeing a rapid rise in job availability. We started to see a big employee retention problem right away. Often a new hire would simply fail to show up for work as they had gotten a better job offer between the time they accepted our offer and the first day of work.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1005821/comments?source=feed#comment-11589301 11589301 Wed, 14 Nov 2012 10:17:45 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1000991/comments?source=feed#comment-11550431 11550431 IAU), they obfuscate and reply by raising other issues, issues which are of possible importance only to large institutional investors. For small investors, IAU is clearly the better choice.

On the question of the gold being in the vaults, I don't think there's any reason to believe that there are too few bars in the allocated account. Such an obvious shortfall would be too easy to detect during an audit. The real question is one that a physical inventory can't answer. Are any of those bars in any way hypothecated by the custodian? The custodian is, after all, a bank, and banks lend based upon the assets under their control. In fact, through fractional reserve lending banks lend many times as much as the assets under their control and use those reserve assets to cover any liquidity requirements implied by those loans.

One final question is what is being done about counterfeit bars. We know that gold-plated titanium bars have made it into the bullion bank vaults. This is not too surprising since the custodian relies on the assay report provided by the bar's producer in the normal case. When a titanium bar is discovered, what are the procedures? Are other bars from that producer checked? Are other bars entered into storage with that bar checked? Are any bars ever checked at random?]]> Tue, 13 Nov 2012 11:55:32 -0500 IAU), they obfuscate and reply by raising other issues, issues which are of possible importance only to large institutional investors. For small investors, IAU is clearly the better choice.

On the question of the gold being in the vaults, I don't think there's any reason to believe that there are too few bars in the allocated account. Such an obvious shortfall would be too easy to detect during an audit. The real question is one that a physical inventory can't answer. Are any of those bars in any way hypothecated by the custodian? The custodian is, after all, a bank, and banks lend based upon the assets under their control. In fact, through fractional reserve lending banks lend many times as much as the assets under their control and use those reserve assets to cover any liquidity requirements implied by those loans.

One final question is what is being done about counterfeit bars. We know that gold-plated titanium bars have made it into the bullion bank vaults. This is not too surprising since the custodian relies on the assay report provided by the bar's producer in the normal case. When a titanium bar is discovered, what are the procedures? Are other bars from that producer checked? Are other bars entered into storage with that bar checked? Are any bars ever checked at random?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1002251/comments?source=feed#comment-11547811 11547811
My printer was just one example I observed. I also worked as a software developer on a product that supported the HP Unix (HPUX) operating system as well as 2 other Unix brands. HPUX always had the most bugs that had to be worked around. It was the least popular brand of Unix and gave us the most problems. If it were not for one particular customer that insisted on it being supported, we would surely have dropped support for it.

Even when HP software works more or less as intended, it is bloated junk that hogs the machine and is overly difficult to install because HP insists on providing their own installation procedures instead of using the approved vendor install procedure. In short, HP management shows themselves incapable of successfully managing a software project.]]> Tue, 13 Nov 2012 11:13:27 -0500
My printer was just one example I observed. I also worked as a software developer on a product that supported the HP Unix (HPUX) operating system as well as 2 other Unix brands. HPUX always had the most bugs that had to be worked around. It was the least popular brand of Unix and gave us the most problems. If it were not for one particular customer that insisted on it being supported, we would surely have dropped support for it.

Even when HP software works more or less as intended, it is bloated junk that hogs the machine and is overly difficult to install because HP insists on providing their own installation procedures instead of using the approved vendor install procedure. In short, HP management shows themselves incapable of successfully managing a software project.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1001711/comments?source=feed#comment-11546481 11546481 Tue, 13 Nov 2012 10:52:02 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1001061/comments?source=feed#comment-11518561 11518561 SPY) instead of switching to (XLE). The producers are already having a hard time keeping the glut of NG from pricing itself below the cost to produce. If domestic oil gets to be as abundant then you want to be on the buying side (SPY), not the producing side (XLE).]]> Mon, 12 Nov 2012 15:58:58 -0500 SPY) instead of switching to (XLE). The producers are already having a hard time keeping the glut of NG from pricing itself below the cost to produce. If domestic oil gets to be as abundant then you want to be on the buying side (SPY), not the producing side (XLE).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/990401/comments?source=feed#comment-11432291 11432291 GIS) with a beta at or very near 0 is supposedly insulated from those risks. However, there might be other risks that affect GIS that the S&P 500 is immune to.

In particular, GIS might logically have exposure to grains and sugar commodity prices which would have negligible effect on the S&P 500.

How can GIS be immune to the usual market forces that affect nearly all S&P 500 stocks? GIS is a major beneficiary of the food stamps program. People don't stop buying Cheerios when they lose their job. They get food stamps and keep right on eating their favorite sugary breakfast cereals.]]> Fri, 09 Nov 2012 15:27:59 -0500 GIS) with a beta at or very near 0 is supposedly insulated from those risks. However, there might be other risks that affect GIS that the S&P 500 is immune to.

In particular, GIS might logically have exposure to grains and sugar commodity prices which would have negligible effect on the S&P 500.

How can GIS be immune to the usual market forces that affect nearly all S&P 500 stocks? GIS is a major beneficiary of the food stamps program. People don't stop buying Cheerios when they lose their job. They get food stamps and keep right on eating their favorite sugary breakfast cereals.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/992981/comments?source=feed#comment-11430141 11430141 AEO) is unlikely to maintain 40% growth in the coming quarters simply because 40% is an unrealistically high bar and the economy is going to provide a strong headwind. Apple, too, has been significantly discounted because it is unlikely to maintain its same pace going forward, no matter how much young people want to be seen holding Apple iPhones and wearing AE clothing. In my neighborhood everybody wears Hollister anyway because of their surfing theme. ]]> Fri, 09 Nov 2012 14:46:23 -0500 AEO) is unlikely to maintain 40% growth in the coming quarters simply because 40% is an unrealistically high bar and the economy is going to provide a strong headwind. Apple, too, has been significantly discounted because it is unlikely to maintain its same pace going forward, no matter how much young people want to be seen holding Apple iPhones and wearing AE clothing. In my neighborhood everybody wears Hollister anyway because of their surfing theme. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/995421/comments?source=feed#comment-11429121 11429121
I'm not that convinced that the fiscal cliff will be all that bullish for gold. It will definitely send stocks lower, and investors this year have been treating gold more like a "risk on" investment than a "risk off" one. Gold may fall in sympathy with stocks, or simply stay put as the two forces (the "inflation haven" versus the "risk on") conflict with each other.]]> Fri, 09 Nov 2012 14:21:37 -0500
I'm not that convinced that the fiscal cliff will be all that bullish for gold. It will definitely send stocks lower, and investors this year have been treating gold more like a "risk on" investment than a "risk off" one. Gold may fall in sympathy with stocks, or simply stay put as the two forces (the "inflation haven" versus the "risk on") conflict with each other.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/985761/comments?source=feed#comment-11425111 11425111
I do worry a bit that production is being pulled forward from the projections because I know these wells are shallow and have relatively short lifetimes as it is. If I recall, the projection calls for production to begin it's decline almost immediately after the last well is drilled. But right now the stock is acting like the last well was already drilled six months ago.]]> Fri, 09 Nov 2012 12:56:11 -0500
I do worry a bit that production is being pulled forward from the projections because I know these wells are shallow and have relatively short lifetimes as it is. If I recall, the projection calls for production to begin it's decline almost immediately after the last well is drilled. But right now the stock is acting like the last well was already drilled six months ago.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/994511/comments?source=feed#comment-11423341 11423341
But long term, the dollar must go lower. Uncle Ben keeps coloring more paper green, making all the other pretty green-colored paper worth less as a result.]]> Fri, 09 Nov 2012 12:24:05 -0500
But long term, the dollar must go lower. Uncle Ben keeps coloring more paper green, making all the other pretty green-colored paper worth less as a result.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/994511/comments?source=feed#comment-11422431 11422431 Fri, 09 Nov 2012 12:02:56 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/993141/comments?source=feed#comment-11422031 11422031
It seems hard to justify much optimism in the dollar with the fiscal cliff looming and the Fed's determination to debase. Congress and POTUS haven't changed, so politics as usual, and plenty of it. That's more bearish than bullish in my book. Makes metals look all the more attractive.]]> Fri, 09 Nov 2012 11:54:27 -0500
It seems hard to justify much optimism in the dollar with the fiscal cliff looming and the Fed's determination to debase. Congress and POTUS haven't changed, so politics as usual, and plenty of it. That's more bearish than bullish in my book. Makes metals look all the more attractive.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/991571/comments?source=feed#comment-11420571 11420571 Fri, 09 Nov 2012 11:28:20 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/991571/comments?source=feed#comment-11420391 11420391 Fri, 09 Nov 2012 11:24:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/985761/comments?source=feed#comment-11387051 11387051 PER) and feel that the yield should be attracting more investor interest and support than it is. It's clearly the best of the lot, yet it has performed poorly this last quarter. The majority of their production is hedged to an oil price of approximately $100 per barrel, significantly above the current WTIC. What gives? Is the market unable to distinguish between distributions which outperform from those which underperform?]]> Thu, 08 Nov 2012 16:06:12 -0500 PER) and feel that the yield should be attracting more investor interest and support than it is. It's clearly the best of the lot, yet it has performed poorly this last quarter. The majority of their production is hedged to an oil price of approximately $100 per barrel, significantly above the current WTIC. What gives? Is the market unable to distinguish between distributions which outperform from those which underperform?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/989601/comments?source=feed#comment-11376491 11376491 Thu, 08 Nov 2012 12:36:05 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/985341/comments?source=feed#comment-11323931 11323931
Punishment has not been swift or sure and it is only now that we are starting to see what could be an ongoing series.

If anything DOJ has shone great favoritism to the banks. BAC has done unspeakable crimes that have damaged the economies of not just the US, but the entire world, all because a megalomaniac in North Carolina went on a wild and cancerous acquisition and lending spree.]]> Wed, 07 Nov 2012 10:58:31 -0500
Punishment has not been swift or sure and it is only now that we are starting to see what could be an ongoing series.

If anything DOJ has shone great favoritism to the banks. BAC has done unspeakable crimes that have damaged the economies of not just the US, but the entire world, all because a megalomaniac in North Carolina went on a wild and cancerous acquisition and lending spree.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/644281?source=feed#comment-11292031 11292031 Tue, 06 Nov 2012 14:02:17 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/981871/comments?source=feed#comment-11290321 11290321
Unfortunately, Google has also squandered that goodwill and made it clear that they don't value and respect customer's privacy rights. I, for one, avoid using google's search engine because I know that they retain those searches and use them for their own purposes and also make them available to government agencies on demand. Not what I have in mind happening when I enter a search term! What if I happen to enter something that is meaningful slang to a drug enforcement agency, or even worse, an anti-terrorist security agency of the US government. I may find myself being forced to lie on the ground at gunpoint while my house is ransacked looking for contraband or evidence of terrorist activity all because google didn't respect my right to reasonable privacy.]]> Tue, 06 Nov 2012 13:25:45 -0500
Unfortunately, Google has also squandered that goodwill and made it clear that they don't value and respect customer's privacy rights. I, for one, avoid using google's search engine because I know that they retain those searches and use them for their own purposes and also make them available to government agencies on demand. Not what I have in mind happening when I enter a search term! What if I happen to enter something that is meaningful slang to a drug enforcement agency, or even worse, an anti-terrorist security agency of the US government. I may find myself being forced to lie on the ground at gunpoint while my house is ransacked looking for contraband or evidence of terrorist activity all because google didn't respect my right to reasonable privacy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/980651/comments?source=feed#comment-11287031 11287031 GDX) or its 3x alternative (NUGT) because they tend to follow the price of bullion better than any individual miner stock. They tend to act as leveraged plays on the price of gold because they are actually plays on the spread between the price of gold and the cost of mining it. However, gold is a depleting asset, so the costs of mining do increase over time. Long term, you're better off owning (IAU) or physical metal in your own or a rented vault.]]> Tue, 06 Nov 2012 12:07:05 -0500 GDX) or its 3x alternative (NUGT) because they tend to follow the price of bullion better than any individual miner stock. They tend to act as leveraged plays on the price of gold because they are actually plays on the spread between the price of gold and the cost of mining it. However, gold is a depleting asset, so the costs of mining do increase over time. Long term, you're better off owning (IAU) or physical metal in your own or a rented vault.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/980881/comments?source=feed#comment-11286121 11286121
If lenders decide they want more interest because they want an inflation premium to make up for the difference in value between the old and new dollars (or pie slices), that will disadvantage borrowers if they have to refinance, but they can avoid that disadvantage by paying off the debt on schedule.]]> Tue, 06 Nov 2012 11:46:11 -0500
If lenders decide they want more interest because they want an inflation premium to make up for the difference in value between the old and new dollars (or pie slices), that will disadvantage borrowers if they have to refinance, but they can avoid that disadvantage by paying off the debt on schedule.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/980881/comments?source=feed#comment-11285191 11285191
When the US government issues bonds, they are issuing a true debt instrument. An investor in such bonds is granted no equity stake in the government or the economy through these instruments. Without additional Fed action, these bonds compete with other bonds in the marketplace for the bond investor's dollar on a preferential basis. Thus, excessive US government bond issuance tends to inhibit the economy by blocking more productive debt issuance. The Fed often chooses, as in the current economy, to monetize these bonds by issuing a similar amount of currency. This, however, is by no means automatic or mandatory. Nor is it perfect. The Fed is only indirectly in control of the money supply and it often overshoots or undershoots its targets. (There is obviously more to the story but it is being deliberately simplified at this point.)

In the usual case where the Fed is accommodative to US government debt, bond holders do, indeed, suffer a dilution effect as the article suggests, but it is indirect. Bonds are denominated in Fed dollars, pay Fed dollars as interest, and pay off the principle in Fed dollars. If Fed dollars are diluted, the value of US bonds will be diluted by a like amount.]]> Tue, 06 Nov 2012 11:27:35 -0500
When the US government issues bonds, they are issuing a true debt instrument. An investor in such bonds is granted no equity stake in the government or the economy through these instruments. Without additional Fed action, these bonds compete with other bonds in the marketplace for the bond investor's dollar on a preferential basis. Thus, excessive US government bond issuance tends to inhibit the economy by blocking more productive debt issuance. The Fed often chooses, as in the current economy, to monetize these bonds by issuing a similar amount of currency. This, however, is by no means automatic or mandatory. Nor is it perfect. The Fed is only indirectly in control of the money supply and it often overshoots or undershoots its targets. (There is obviously more to the story but it is being deliberately simplified at this point.)

In the usual case where the Fed is accommodative to US government debt, bond holders do, indeed, suffer a dilution effect as the article suggests, but it is indirect. Bonds are denominated in Fed dollars, pay Fed dollars as interest, and pay off the principle in Fed dollars. If Fed dollars are diluted, the value of US bonds will be diluted by a like amount.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/978411/comments?source=feed#comment-11254701 11254701
In any case, this is the first I've heard of Indians substituting platinum for gold, which is good news for platinum if true. The disadvantage of using platinum in jewelry is, of course, that it's hard to tell platinum from the cheaper palladium and even cheaper silver. Gold does not have that problem.]]> Mon, 05 Nov 2012 14:49:21 -0500
In any case, this is the first I've heard of Indians substituting platinum for gold, which is good news for platinum if true. The disadvantage of using platinum in jewelry is, of course, that it's hard to tell platinum from the cheaper palladium and even cheaper silver. Gold does not have that problem.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/979011/comments?source=feed#comment-11253561 11253561
If you can adjust your software to print bolder lines and labels on a white background it would be much appreciated.]]> Mon, 05 Nov 2012 14:25:24 -0500
If you can adjust your software to print bolder lines and labels on a white background it would be much appreciated.]]>