Microsoft Is A Deeply Undervalued Stock At $31 [View article]
I agree. The market is not showing support for stocks right now. There will be plenty of time to get excited over MSFT and other tech stocks later when the market is considerably more deleveraged.
Who knows, by then there may be a new kid on the block that will eat both MSFT and AAPL's lunch. Just saying, anything can happen, and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
I sold my IAU today because the market isn't showing support for any commodity, even gold. It's not showing much support for anything right now, except bonds.
Frankly, I think bonds are in for a double whammy, rising interest rates to combat rising inflation in the not too distant future. Unfortunately, my crystal ball is a little fuzzy on the timing. All I know is that it will be AFTER there has been a significant move into bonds so as to destroy as much paper capital as possible.
Delta: When An Airline Buys An Oil Refinery [View article]
It looks like the naysayers have weighed in heavily above. So, now for something completely different:
This move gives Delta management something they desperately need: cost control. They don't have to worry about jet fuel being raised to ineconomic heights by refinery capacity being waylaid by higher demand for heating oil or gasoline.
Yes, they have to manage an asset they are unfamiliar with. But that's what hiring managers are for.
I applaud their creativity, something rarely seen in corporate boardrooms.
I fit the profile: an investor who believes 1) that inflation will prove to be higher than expected, and 2) that economic growth will continue to be disappointing.
Clearly, the market is trying to attract investors to bonds in general. The major downsides to bonds are 1) inflation and 2) rising interest rates. TIPS promises to solve inflation, but at a market-determined premium to normal bonds. Is that premium too high? Only time will tell. But there's no reason an investor can't choose some of each, like any other asset allocation scheme.
How To Identify The Best Cheap Stocks To Buy [View article]
It's a bit counter-intuitive that Price/Sales should do so much better than Price/Earnings since it basically ignores the company's cost structure. I guess the logic involved is that if the sales are there then the costs can be easily brought into line within a year's horizon (usually), while if the sales aren't there the earnings problem is more long-term.
I would be interested in comparing other sell criteria than just hold for one year. What would happen if you held until the price ratio rose above the industry average?
I presume you used equal weight asset allocation strategy. What about market cap weight? How about a weighting that favored the most undervalued stocks?
You'd think from this article that Ford was ahead of the game in China. NOT! GM and Chrysler are already selling in the seven figures in that market, to Ford's low six figures. And, of course, to ignore the competition from the Asian makers would be pure arrogance.
Here at home, I'm actually going to want to see something more compelling for a single person than the Fusion before I buy another new car, and I know I'm not the only single in America, though it sometimes seems like it when I take a look at current automotive offerings.
It's 'Sell In May' Time But The Sky Isn't Falling [View article]
To me, equities look overvalued as they struggle to maintain a sideways action rather than simply taking a deep dive as in 2008. The "daily most active" stocks in the black are always the ones that took the worst beatings the previous day. Not a healthy sign.
I see relatively little to cheer about in the recent earnings numbers. Yes, they exceeded analysts expectations, but they did so by beating those expectations thoroughly beforehand with a big stick labelled 'expect the worst'.
It's becoming increasingly clear that we are in a post-consumer, globalist economy. Companies with a future worth talking about are those with presences in foreign markets, therefore the US economy will be increasingly driven by the global economy, which isn't doing too well right now. And, by the way, it's about time we got our trade imbalance house back in order.
I remember back in 2004 when I was living in San Jose and housing prices were sky high. There were people on the streets begging daily. They had been priced out of the market. The government did them no favors whatsoever. It took two incomes plus a healthy down payment to get into what the rest of the country would have considered a hovel. Making excessive and poor housing loans merely caused the pricing bubble. It did nothing to make housing affordable.
Investors Grant Immunity To These 5 Stock ETFs [View article]
Conspicuously missing from your article is any mention of dividend payouts, total return on investment figures, or positive earnings expectations that might lead one to believe there is any fundamental reason to consider these hedges against a major downward equity reevaluation a la 2008.
Five day price deltas negative less than 1% in the face of an S&P delta of -3.3% are hardly glowing recommendations. If the S&P takes a dive these may well be pulled into the whirlpool as well.
Alternative Fuel Plays Look Like Bad Investments [View article]
These companies have no moat. There is very little difference between a gasoline (petrol) engine and one for natural gas. Conversions are all too easy and will be likely to be the preferred way to meet increasingly stringent government mandates.
Nothing fundamental has changed. National deficits continue to rise globally, warning of future inflation on schedule for the associated currencies. The only safe haven is gold.
In a crisis, some gold holders may have to sell a portion of their holdings to raise cash to meet living expenses. Far more likely is that JPM is having another 'trading incident' that is resulting in considerable commodity market manipulation. In any case, short term price fluctuations should not be taken as proof of loss of value. Even in the unusual deflationary circumstance (2008) that all assets are devalued relative to the dollar, gold holders usually fare less worse than other asset holders.
When I look at the past performance of gold versus any other asset, over a time-frame of 5 years or longer, gold always wins. Yes, it got overbought last year and it hasn't performed up to par for the last six months. Any asset can have a pricing bubble from time to time. That's not a risk you can avoid, except to recognize when you're overpaying for something.
That said, I think we're back on track for another upswing. The gold-holding central banks are not currently dumping gold in a fit of panic selling into the current market to bring the price lower, nor does that seem likely to be a big risk in the foreseeable future. On the contrary, the central banks are struggling to swallow all the government debt flooding the market by adding additional zeros onto all the pretty pieces of paper they're printing.
Microsoft Is A Deeply Undervalued Stock At $31 [View article]
Who knows, by then there may be a new kid on the block that will eat both MSFT and AAPL's lunch. Just saying, anything can happen, and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
How To Play Gold Through June [View article]
Frankly, I think bonds are in for a double whammy, rising interest rates to combat rising inflation in the not too distant future. Unfortunately, my crystal ball is a little fuzzy on the timing. All I know is that it will be AFTER there has been a significant move into bonds so as to destroy as much paper capital as possible.
Delta: When An Airline Buys An Oil Refinery [View article]
This move gives Delta management something they desperately need: cost control. They don't have to worry about jet fuel being raised to ineconomic heights by refinery capacity being waylaid by higher demand for heating oil or gasoline.
Yes, they have to manage an asset they are unfamiliar with. But that's what hiring managers are for.
I applaud their creativity, something rarely seen in corporate boardrooms.
TIPS Update: Less Than Attractive [View article]
Clearly, the market is trying to attract investors to bonds in general. The major downsides to bonds are 1) inflation and 2) rising interest rates. TIPS promises to solve inflation, but at a market-determined premium to normal bonds. Is that premium too high? Only time will tell. But there's no reason an investor can't choose some of each, like any other asset allocation scheme.
How To Identify The Best Cheap Stocks To Buy [View article]
I would be interested in comparing other sell criteria than just hold for one year. What would happen if you held until the price ratio rose above the industry average?
I presume you used equal weight asset allocation strategy. What about market cap weight? How about a weighting that favored the most undervalued stocks?
Ford Looks Like A Buffett Special [View article]
Here at home, I'm actually going to want to see something more compelling for a single person than the Fusion before I buy another new car, and I know I'm not the only single in America, though it sometimes seems like it when I take a look at current automotive offerings.
It's 'Sell In May' Time But The Sky Isn't Falling [View article]
I see relatively little to cheer about in the recent earnings numbers. Yes, they exceeded analysts expectations, but they did so by beating those expectations thoroughly beforehand with a big stick labelled 'expect the worst'.
It's becoming increasingly clear that we are in a post-consumer, globalist economy. Companies with a future worth talking about are those with presences in foreign markets, therefore the US economy will be increasingly driven by the global economy, which isn't doing too well right now. And, by the way, it's about time we got our trade imbalance house back in order.
Do Panic Over Europe [View article]
Investors Grant Immunity To These 5 Stock ETFs [View article]
Five day price deltas negative less than 1% in the face of an S&P delta of -3.3% are hardly glowing recommendations. If the S&P takes a dive these may well be pulled into the whirlpool as well.
Alternative Fuel Plays Look Like Bad Investments [View article]
Gold ETFs Sink On Euro Chaos [View article]
In a crisis, some gold holders may have to sell a portion of their holdings to raise cash to meet living expenses. Far more likely is that JPM is having another 'trading incident' that is resulting in considerable commodity market manipulation. In any case, short term price fluctuations should not be taken as proof of loss of value. Even in the unusual deflationary circumstance (2008) that all assets are devalued relative to the dollar, gold holders usually fare less worse than other asset holders.
Is Gold Still A Safe Haven? [View article]
That said, I think we're back on track for another upswing. The gold-holding central banks are not currently dumping gold in a fit of panic selling into the current market to bring the price lower, nor does that seem likely to be a big risk in the foreseeable future. On the contrary, the central banks are struggling to swallow all the government debt flooding the market by adding additional zeros onto all the pretty pieces of paper they're printing.