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David at Imperial Beach

David at Imperial Beach
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  • Dual Momentum ETF Portfolio [View article]
    What worked for the last 12 months is unlikely to work in the near future. The market seems intent on punishing buy-and-hold investors.
    Apr 14 11:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Downside To Chasing Prior Winning Strategies [View article]
    This looks like a half-complete article. I expected there to be some discussion about which reversals might indicate a permanent change in market conditions and which might be temporary pauses in a long-term bull market.
    Apr 14 11:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver Break Free From The $20 Price Range? [View article]
    Agreed. The chart shows no statistically significant correlation in either direction against any of the currencies. Even the "best" correlation only explains 20% of the price movement of silver, in other words, completely insignificant!

    Contrast this with the statement about the gold:silver correlation in March and April being "weak" at 77.2-78.2%!
    Apr 14 03:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is GDX A Worthy Gold Stock Benchmark? [View article]
    It's patently false that a portfolio of only 20 stocks is somehow better than a larger portfolio, especially when the selection universe is dominated by a few key stocks, and a large number of small companies with very news-driven values. You extoll market cap allocation, but then decry the dominance of the top holdings at the expense of the rest. You can't have it both ways. Either market cap is best and these top stocks fully deserve their dominant positions, or market cap is an inaccurate gauge of future performance of a stock and large caps can be expected to underperform smaller stocks. If smaller stocks can be expected to outperform, then a portfolio should at the very least include all such companies commensurate with their market caps, if not over-allocate to them. Furthermore, you yourself admit that even seasoned professionals can't reliably distinguish between outperformers and underperformers based upon their past performance.
    Apr 14 02:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum ETFs: Really A Good Idea? [View article]
    It may be that the momentum strategies used by these funds are not very effective. (DWAS) and (PDP) for instance, are only re-indexed and rebalanced quarterly. The market can decide quite suddenly (as it did recently) that momentum stocks are overpriced and should be discounted. In such markets these ETFs will underperform.

    (MTUM) does not state how frequently it re-indexes and rebalances (at least, not in an easily found location), but its selection algorithm is complex and risk-adjusted, and perhaps unreliable. It may underperform for that reason. (As an example, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) made the cut as one of the top 10 holdings! I doubt that this is an example of a stock that most investors would choose as a high-flying momentum play.)
    Apr 14 01:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Tesla, Sinopec to hold talks about charging network in China [View news story]
    No matter how disruptive and transformational a company is, it cannot change the world overnight. But it is important to start walking, if not running, in the right direction. I have nothing against converting every gas station in the world to a supercharging station if that's what it takes to sell sustainable cars. And yeah, of course if we project that 500K cars per year are going to require a doubling of the 18650 battery cell production capacity of the entire world, then we'd better get busy building new gigafactories because I expect at under $40K per car for Tesla to sell all that they can produce. Nobody ever said that Tesla could disrupt a capital intensive industry without lots of capital, and I think it's unrealistic to expect otherwise.
    Apr 14 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Tesla, Sinopec to hold talks about charging network in China [View news story]
    It's a pretty obvious move when you think about it. They have stations in the right places, and probably a few extra parking spaces to spare. With fewer homes in China having garages, they have to install more public superchargers.
    Apr 14 09:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Kicks China Plans Into High Gear [View article]
    It's going to be a while before Tesla has to resort to paid advertising. First they are going to roll out the Model S in all the right hand drive countries--UK, Japan, Hong Kong, Australia, India, Pakistan, South Africa, ... and once they are done doing that it will be time to start rolling out the Model X.
    Apr 14 08:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pierre Lassonde: Gold Moving Sideways, Very Bullish On Natural Gas [View article]
    Gold goes up when the dollar goes down, as it has been doing lately. That may or may not be due to inflation. We have been seeing oil and gasoline prices go up, and also grains and other agricultural commodities like coffee and sugar. So without a doubt inflation is back on the horizon. Right now the market is trying to pretend that it isn't there, but it won't be long before it will have spread to the core CPI where it can't be ignored.
    Apr 11 07:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold: Managing The Downside [View article]
    It should also be noted that the maximum drawdown for gold, even in the worst currency of any given drawdown, is less than the maximum drawdown for the S&P500.
    Apr 11 02:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More Glass, More Cash: Corning [View article]
    It should be noted that most Gorilla Glass is used in TVs and monitors and other large screen devices, not smartphones. Smartphones may be where the margins are the highest, but by volume its large screen TVs that are important.
    Apr 11 11:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Sell In May And Go Away' Arrives Early In 2014 [View article]
    $12B off the market cap isn't really enough. The recall costs $4B according to the company, but how much does the loss of trust cost them? How many people are going to remember this and say "Never again GM" when they go to buy a new car?
    Apr 11 10:38 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Markets, Should They Be In Your Portfolio? [View article]
    Americans benefit less than might be expected from geographic diversification because US multinational companies are already geographically diversified.
    Apr 10 07:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Markets, Should They Be In Your Portfolio? [View article]
    That same article says "But there is a positive correlation between aggregate real GDP growth and real equity returns (0.51)."
    Apr 10 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Precious Metals And Junior Miners Preparing For War? [View article]
    This may not be "The Big One" yet. Right now Russia is wanting to be paid for bills that Ukraine has run up on their energy tab. They might have to settle for land in Eastern Ukraine as Europe doesn't seem to want to go to bat for Ukraine. Logically, Crimea should have been worth well more than a few utility bills in arrears, but Mother Russia doesn't see it that way. I think China would like to wait until they have even more gold amassed before they begin their assault on the dollar, but then the recent fall-off in exports may have made them reassess how much more they can make off those gullible Americans willing to buy cheaply manufactured trinkets in exchange for their hegemony.
    Apr 10 06:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment