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David at Imperial Beach

David at Imperial Beach
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  • 'Sell In May And Go Away' Arrives Early In 2014 [View article]
    $12B off the market cap isn't really enough. The recall costs $4B according to the company, but how much does the loss of trust cost them? How many people are going to remember this and say "Never again GM" when they go to buy a new car?
    Apr 11 10:38 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Markets, Should They Be In Your Portfolio? [View article]
    Americans benefit less than might be expected from geographic diversification because US multinational companies are already geographically diversified.
    Apr 10 07:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Markets, Should They Be In Your Portfolio? [View article]
    That same article says "But there is a positive correlation between aggregate real GDP growth and real equity returns (0.51)."
    Apr 10 07:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Precious Metals And Junior Miners Preparing For War? [View article]
    This may not be "The Big One" yet. Right now Russia is wanting to be paid for bills that Ukraine has run up on their energy tab. They might have to settle for land in Eastern Ukraine as Europe doesn't seem to want to go to bat for Ukraine. Logically, Crimea should have been worth well more than a few utility bills in arrears, but Mother Russia doesn't see it that way. I think China would like to wait until they have even more gold amassed before they begin their assault on the dollar, but then the recent fall-off in exports may have made them reassess how much more they can make off those gullible Americans willing to buy cheaply manufactured trinkets in exchange for their hegemony.
    Apr 10 06:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Real Interest Rates Are Virtually Uncorrelated [View article]
    I agree with the article's conclusion. Gold is a bargain at current prices. Now is the time to buy as there is little downside risk. I would think the correlation between long term interest rates and gold would at least be positive, though I don't think it would be very significant. There are just too many other factors affecting the price of gold. There does seem to be much more (inverse) correlation between the price of gold and dollar exchange rates versus foreign currencies, especially the euro.
    Apr 10 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My 2013 IRA Additions: Amazon, Tesla, LinkedIn, InterActive And Lorillard [View article]
    I think it's a bit premature to buy high flyers "at a discount" since they are very likely to fall further as tapering continues. That said, you've made some interesting choices. No one knows the future, so who can say if they will hold up for 30 or 40 years?

    This is the first I've heard of Sharebuilder and their DRIP program. Perhaps you should do an article on this.
    Apr 10 01:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla - 20 Key Risks That Longs Are Ignoring [View article]
    Based upon the same math (probability of one of a dozen or more hypothetical independent adverse events materially affecting a stock price) I should never invest in any company. The fact that the author could only come up with 20 such events makes Tesla a must buy. One could easily name a couple dozen such possibilities per product for practically any company. I shudder to think how a huge conglomerate such as Berkshire Hathaway or GE would fair under a similar assessment.
    Apr 10 12:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford In Light Of March 2014 Auto Sales [View article]
    While slightly more realistic that previous Ford articles, this one is again way too rosy overall. Many problems exist at Ford that are not being acknowledged by the author. Potential (F) investors are not just encouraged to do due diligence, but warned to do so.
    Apr 10 11:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Does Seeking Alpha Pay Its Contributors? [View article]
    In general, I prefer wonky articles where authors have real numbers to back up what they are saying. Too many articles, in my opinion, are short on numbers and long on hand-waving. I also don't think it's very helpful to see repeated articles on the same exact thesis week after week or month after month. How many articles do we need saying that Ford is going to beat the pants off of the competition suddenly? How many Paul Santos articles conflating supply figures with demand figures and then claiming a demand problem with Tesla do we need?
    Apr 10 10:50 AM | 28 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs weighs in on Tesla Motors [View news story]
    However, Japanese companies are also loathe to terminate an ongoing partnership with another company like American companies are. They work hard to maintain relationships and meet expectations. Tesla has clearly laid out its expectations in this matter. If those expectations are at all realistic Panasonic would likely lose face if they terminate the relationship.

    Panasonic is actually getting a pretty good deal with the proposed partnership. Tesla could have laid the entire burden of building 3.5B cells per year for the Gen III car entirely on Panasonic.
    Apr 10 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs weighs in on Tesla Motors [View news story]
    What J P said isn't controversial in any way. Panasonic is the sole source for Model S and Model X battery cells. Tesla has no contract in place with any other battery cell supplier. Not only does Tesla hope Panasonic will become a partner in the gigafactory, they have explicitly encouraged investors to assume that they will, so they will have egg on their face if Panasonic decides not to. It apparently hasn't happened because an announcement would be expected if and when it does happen, and so far there has been no such announcement.
    Apr 10 10:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kill The Microsoft Surface Tablet [View article]
    I agree that arrogance describes the problem at Microsoft perfectly. The problems that plague every even numbered Windows version won't be cured by merely killing off the Surface tablet. It's going to take an attitudectomy in Redmond.
    Apr 9 12:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting A Plug Power Short Position [View article]
    You can thank your friendly neighborhood central bank for that.
    Apr 9 12:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Toyota recalls 6.76M vehicles worldwide [View news story]
    I owned a Celica with a leaky sunroof. Surprisingly, the sunroof design did not include any way for water to drain out of the car once it made it past the exterior seal, and any adjustment of the sunroof required disassembly of practically the entire interior of the car to get to the sunroof mechanism.
    Apr 9 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Motors - Priced For Earnings Contraction [View article]
    GM was already on probation with many car buyers due to the government bailout. This latest safety issue could be the death knell for the company if buyers conclude that it's just too dangerous to buy a GM car. If the company can't be trusted to replace a $.57 part because of the cost despite the potential for fatal accidents, then they really can't be trusted at all. We really need to be seeing a wholehearted change in behavior and an enthusiastic embrace of safety. Instead we're seeing stonewalling that is resulting in government fines.
    Apr 9 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment