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David at Imperial Beach

David at Imperial Beach
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  • Daily State Of The Markets: Mo-Mo Is Suddenly A No-No [View article]
    It couldn't happen to a nicer market.

    No, really! The market goes up for 5 years straight and people are surprised when a correction finally threatens?
    Apr 7 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Words Of Gold From Warren Buffett [View article]
    In a falling stock market (such as today) I would rather have $305.042B in gold than all of the Berkshire Hathaway stock in the entire world. BRK-A and BRK-B are pieces of paper. They are alleged to have worth, you may be able to sell them to some gullible dupe, but in fact they are utterly useless. They generate no dividends and are not likely to ever do so while Warren Buffett is alive.

    With an equivalent lump of gold I can commission some very nice jewelry. I can gold plate suits of armor. I can illuminate manuscripts with it. I can cover entire ceilings with gold mosaic tiles. There is no limit to the artwork I can use it on. I can use it to ensure good contacts in millions of electronic devices. I can stabilize the currencies of entire nations.
    Apr 7 04:21 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Flash Boys Have It Wrong - The Market Is Not Rigged [View article]
    Recovery? Where?

    I don't think anybody would have a problem with HFT if they knew for a fact that the algorithms were not disadvantaging the non-HFT trades and not destabilizing the markets. But that is clearly not the case when multiple HFT companies make perfect trades every day for an entire quarter, and we have flash events where the bottom drops out of the market in less than a second. This article's lame attempt to justify HFT belongs in the round file.
    Apr 7 04:00 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Gold Drop Below $1000? [View article]
    Seems like an excellent time to buy to me. There is absolutely no reason for gold investors to panic. The US government is not going to suddenly balance its budget. The Fed is not (despite all rumors to the contrary) going to suddenly raise interest rates. Stocks and bonds are both stupid investments at these prices. However, agricultural commodities are on the rise, and that makes my inflation antenna twitch.
    Apr 7 03:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Are We There Yet? [View article]
    Tulipmania was in 1634. "Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" by Charles Mackay was first published in 1841.
    Apr 7 12:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola's Decade-Long Struggle To Fix Its Declining CSD Business [View article]
    I like the taste of Coke. But I refuse to pay as much as most restaurants want for an icy glass of Coke with my restaurant meal, even if includes free refills, so I have icy tap water instead. And I don't buy Coke for in-home consumption because it just isn't healthy enough. I still drink Coke at fast food restaurants that include a soda with the meal or ask a reasonable price for it.

    As I see it Coke has two problems: 1) they need to get control of the price of their product in restaurants, especially the more upscale ones that seem intent on gouging their customers to the maximum extent possible, and 2) they need to make their CSD products healthier with a decent dose of necessary vitamins and minerals without affecting the taste. Why should I have to turn to a sports drink to get something marginally healthier?
    Apr 7 12:23 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla And Texas: A Solid Plan For The Gigafactory [View article]
    There's probably more cultural gap between San Francisco and Fremont than between California and Texas.

    I disagree that Tesla MUST put the gigafactory in Texas. I suspect that Nevada is the most logical choice, but that all four states have a good chance of winning or they wouldn't have been named. Nevada has the highest unemployment, which should translate to the lowest labor costs. They also have lots of slack in their housing and low cost housing will be important. I don't think it's going to be important to have a port available for shipping. Shipping to Fremont will most likely be by rail. Reno is within easy driving range of Fremont and also there is unusually good air travel available between Oakland and Reno.
    Apr 4 06:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla And Texas: A Solid Plan For The Gigafactory [View article]
    "Tesla has already said the Gen3 will be called the Model E." No they haven't. They've consistently avoided naming it. Instead they refer to it as the third generation (Gen III) vehicle.
    Apr 4 05:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • California green car incentive program goes dry [View news story]
    Not to worry. California is not ready to give up on green cars just yet.
    Apr 4 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sideways Growth And Noflation [View article]
    Where's the taper?
    Apr 4 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Outlook For Rest Of 2014: Acceleration [View article]
    You just aren't describing the same economy as the one I'm living in!

    If you take a look at the chart of Fed balance sheet durations, there's no discernible difference before and after tapering. They're reducing the dollar amount of their purchases, but they're buying longer term bonds than before so that they continue to control long bond yields. The Fed knows that we're not recovering satisfactorily. They just want to try to trick people into spending us into recovery. It's not happening.

    We're also going to be seeing a round of inflation in agriculture commodities and food due to wheat and corn and also coffee and sugar prices going up.

    "The US economy is remarkably autarkic..." Where in the world did you get that idea? We get most of our consumer goods from offshore. Our major corporations are almost all multinationals that earn at least half their income offshore. We outsource any job that doesn't absolutely require physical presence offshore. The Fed attempts to stimulate the local economy and emerging markets suffer inflation. We're not autarkic at all!
    Apr 4 10:14 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Invest In Bitcoin Without Buying Bitcoin [View article]
    Uh, no. Bitcoin isn't anywhere close to $600. Current average quote is $436.72.
    Apr 3 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Statistical Analysis Of The S&P 500 Q1 Returns [View article]
    Even 15% correlation is almost entirely uncorrelated. The only thing interesting about the article is that you analyzed data starting in 1952, the year I was born.
    Apr 3 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Timers Are Net Short - Not Bearish Enough? [View article]
    I don't think sentiment has a lot to do with it. We get the right inflation and GDP and employment numbers and sentiment will swing sharply bullish for gold. The Fed is still suppressing long term interest rates and is likely to continue to do so. As a matter of fact, there isn't any discernible difference in the Fed balance sheet pre- and post- tapering. They started moving out on durations even before they announced tapering.
    Apr 3 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Shakes Off More Worries [View article]
    I was pleasantly surprised to see a 6.14% jump in the stock today, especially since the NASDAQ was weaker than the S&P500 and the Dow. Momo stocks aren't completely out of the woods yet.
    Apr 3 12:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment