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David at Imperial Beach

David at Imperial Beach
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  • Clearwire's Q3 Earnings: Addressing Spectrum Monetization, Governance, And The Long-Term Potential [View article]
    My impression of Clearwire is extremely negative, having attempted to use their wireless internet product from three different locations over a two year period, none of which was significantly more satisfactory than a dial-up connection. The technology just isn't up to such intensive uses as watching youtube, and I saw no evidence of upgrades in progress to bring their system up to the standard set by the local cable company. To top it all off, they had the nerve to throttle intensive users, and I was recently notified that a class action lawsuit is in progress as a result.
    Oct 26 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Won't Believe Which Stock Is The Best Bargain In The S&P 500 [View article]
    The most meaningful phrase in this article is "shares of Delta are likely to be stuck in neutral -- at best." Trade accordingly.

    Delta is an airline. Airlines are very cyclical. The market is preparing for a major downdraft in the next quarter or two. This cannot be good news for Delta stock. If you like the long term prospects for Delta you might want to put a tickler on your calendar to check the stock about 6 months from now.
    Oct 26 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: The Tricky Craft Of Counting Drilling Rigs - Part I [View article]
    Perhaps a more telling statistic might be how many wells have been shut down after having been drilled; or not drilled in favor of other locations because of the NG glut. Reclassification of a combo well doesn't change its production. Shutting it down or simply not drilling it in the first place does.
    Oct 26 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Market A Casino? Yes... And You Can Be The House [View article]
    After honest inflation adjustment the odds don't look so good. See http://bit.ly/Ptos8Q where stocks don't look all that hot compared to gold. Even adjusting using the bogus CPI will bring your "profits" way down. The recent run-up since 2009, for instance, is practically all inflation, and practically no real growth in value.
    Oct 25 05:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Price Plausibly $1,300 In A Deflation Scenario [View article]
    Gold at $1300 an ounce, or even $1500, is a pipe dream of someone smoking something other than tobacco in his pipe. Uncle Ben and his cronies are actively conspiring to debase the dollar as quickly as acceptable, which is by proclamation 2 percent compounded annually as measured by the bogus CPI. They are surely well aware that every time the price of oil goes up, the price of gasoline and diesel spike as well, and when gas and oil are up, retail prices have no choice but to follow because transportation costs represent such a large portion of the value of overseas manufactured goods.
    Oct 25 02:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Price Plausibly $1,300 In A Deflation Scenario [View article]
    I agree enviro111, gold looks like it is currently in line with its long term up-trend. It could go lower for the last few days of this month, but November is one of the best months for gold demand, so expect a turnaround next month.

    Stocks are still overvalued in terms of gold, and the Fed has been directly intervening to keep bonds artificially high as well. People seem to be parking lots of money in bonds anyway. Patriotic of them, but stupid. A lot of the short term bonds are probably held by Europeans wanting a "safe" alternative to the euro. Central banks for China and Japan are holding lots of our bonds, but the Fed has been out-buying them recently.

    Real estate is a dirty word nowadays and doesn't carry a lot of credibility as an investment, though that varies greatly by locality and type. For those of us who don't want to be obligated to a mortgage and hate building maintenance it's out of the question in any case.
    Oct 25 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Trying To Find The Market's Oxygen Mask [View article]
    It still seems premature to be bidding up Spanish and Greek equities, but investors can get "irrationally exuberant" simply by getting tired of a down trend.

    Rajoy is balking for a reason. Spain has one of the lowest ratios of public debt to GDP of the entire eurozone. The Spanish problem is not its debt, but its shrinking GDP. Austerity won't help that, so why seek "help" with austerity attached?

    In the end, it would be surprising if Germany was able to avoid recession when all its trading partners have fallen. They have been able to prolong the "prosperity" through massive lending, but that has now caught up with the borrowers. The old solution will no longer work.

    Google's valuation made it vulnerable to bubble busting even on the news that the CEO sneezed.

    Uncle Ben is determined to keep us out of a double/triple dip recession so I don't expect the current earnings and projections for next quarter to have long term implications. But the market isn't agreeing with me. It appears that the market ignored the earlier warnings that this quarter and next would be under-performers, so now we reap what we have sown by our inattention.
    Oct 25 12:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Almost No One Makes Money From The Stock Market Alone [View article]
    1971 must have been a very good year for (PRPFX). I took a look at (PERM) just now, and since its inception in Feb it looks like it's going to be flat for the year. It underperformed the S&P 500 all YTD except for a brief "day in the sun" in June when the S&P dropped low enough to cross its line.
    Oct 25 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Almost No One Makes Money From The Stock Market Alone [View article]
    My maternal grandparents made enough money to leave an inheritance to my mother, and eventually me and my brothers. They did it by staying away from stocks and bonds. They owned an auto dealership that put the bread on the table, but that wasn't how they made enough to generate a legacy. My grandfather experimented with joint ventures with others on farms and other projects, and that didn't make any money either. The investments that really paid off were commercial properties in a rural Oregon town that was growing in population during those years. My grandfather was always on the lookout for bargain properties in good locations with old buildings that could be torn down and a nice new storefront built in its place.
    Oct 25 11:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Almost No One Makes Money From The Stock Market Alone [View article]
    If a more honest deflator is used the first chart looks even worse. See
    http://bit.ly/Ptos8Q where the price of gold is used as the deflator.
    Oct 25 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Voluntary Exile: Equity Liquidation Is A Self-Inflicted Mistake [View article]
    Talld's story choice is also apropro. We are the sons of b*tches left to clean up the mess now that the orgy is over.

    I would say that the chart negates the author's thesis. His argument is that endowments have moved away from stocks and in doing so have given up significant gains that a simple 60/40 split would have given. The chart showed that over a long enough period, large and medium endowments did better with a more diversified strategy that minimized US stock holdings. The land of Egypt was found to be fertile and dependably well-watered, more so than Palestine even.
    Oct 25 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Doesn't Care About Its Competition [View article]
    You don't know Apple very well, yet you are criticizing the author who does. Be less assertive and more studious!

    1) Apple has a significant counterfeiting problem throughout Asia and China in particular.

    2) The author made the claim that Google does not have this problem with the Nexus 7.

    3) The implication is that the Nexus 7 is not a highly prized product valuable enough to spend the time and effort to convincingly counterfeit, but more importantly, Apple products are.

    Is this clear enough now, or do you need to be led by the hand to the office of a counterfeit vendor in China with a bitten apple logo on the window where you can witness for yourself counterfeit products with a bitten apple logo being sold?
    Oct 25 10:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Significance Of The Row In Germany About Inspecting Their Gold Reserves Held Abroad [View article]
    With the banking industry as untrustworthy as it is, you would think that there would be a tidal wave of auditing of these custodial organizations. The proven dishonesties in mortgages were enough to begin the 2008 crisis. It is known that counterfeit bars have entered the system, yet that did not trigger any monitoring, assaying, or auditing event. It's as if the world deliberately turns a blind eye to whatever antics the bullion bankers are up to.
    Oct 24 06:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yield Trap: The PIMCO High Income Fund Is Too Good To Be True [View article]
    Using "consistent" where "consist" or "consists" is correct renders the resulting sentences unintelligible hash.

    I can see why someone might find a CEF bond fund attractive if it consists of a fixed portfolio of unmanaged bonds, but an actively managed leveraged CEF junk bond fund is about the worst of all possible investments and the investors who buy it should be mercilessly and severely punished accordingly. Really now! The only thing you could do to make this investment worse is to offer options on it. The entire management team at PIMCO should be shot at sunrise without a final cigarette for even entertaining the idea of such a monstrosity.

    If you are an investor in PHK, please immediately call the suicide hot line and explain your stupidity to a caring voice. Maybe they can talk you out of slitting your throat with a dirty knife.
    Oct 24 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Revisited: Fundamentals Have Changed, Downside Remains [View article]
    I expect Spain to put up considerable resistance to further "help" from the EU in exchange for a forced austerity package. They already have one of the lowest public debt to GDP ratios of the entire EU. What they lack is investment to create new jobs. No austerity package is going to fix that. It is EXACTLY the wrong thing to do. Out in black swan lake, Belgium has a higher public debt to GDP ratio than France, yet nothing has been written about it, so far as I can see.

    That being said, the forex will likely continue to downgrade the euro and upgrade the dollar, which leaves gold and other commodities and equities suffocating from deflationary pressure, despite the Fed's inflationary QE++. Inflation will eventually win, of course. It always does. The correlation is already less strong than it was earlier in the year.
    Oct 24 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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