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  • The Stock Market Is Starting To Price In The Next Housing Downturn [View article]
    Here's a nice nugget, speaking of housing predictions:

    Jan 29, 2013
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    ^
    "Therefore, I believe that the 250% gain in DHI's stock since August 2011 is unjustified. At the very least, if my view of the housing market unfolds over the next 12 months, DHI's stock price will decline as quickly as it rose over the last 18 months."

    On Jan 29, 2013, DHI closed at $22.82. Now - 19 months later - it is at $21.89 - down just 4%! Oops!
    Aug 21 02:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Starting To Price In The Next Housing Downturn [View article]
    "As I suspected, the Census Bureau put out a trumped up report showing a raging rise in housing starts for July yesterday. The majority of the statistically manipulated number came from a pop in starts for large apartment buildings."

    One other thing I just noticed: As is his usual habit, when a data point goes his way it shouts it loud and clear as proof of his thesis. But when they don't go his way they become "statistically manipulated. To wit: In April of last year he had no problem whatsoever with building permit data - since, of course, they were (temporarily) heading his way at the time:

    http://bit.ly/1p05X8Y
    "Single-family housing starts (-4.8% in March and negative for two of the past three months as well."

    He also had no problem with the housing starts numbers back in June:
    http://bit.ly/1p0604E
    "A second ominous sign for the housing market is housing starts, which took a large, unexpected drop last week. The Census Bureau reported that starts for June dropped 9.3% vs. May. The reported number for June was 893k (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) vs. the 1.03 million expected by Wall Street. Not only did the market miss the market by quite a bit (over 10%), but May's originally reported 1.001 million starts was revised lower to 985k. The market was clearly not expecting the big decline reported, as the Dow Jones Home Construction index tanked 3.3% on Thursday."
    ^
    No questioning of the data there whatsoever, clearly it went in his direction that month so he was glad to broadcast it to the world. Now it goes in the opposite direction so suddenly THE EXACT SAME DATA SOURCE becomes "statistically manipulated."

    Dave is truly one of the most dishonest persons I have ever conversed with. Selective beliefs such as that I just described above are but two of many examples of this.
    Aug 21 12:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Starting To Price In The Next Housing Downturn [View article]
    Just as I predicted - except that he took a little longer than 24 hours.
    http://bit.ly/VGF3f1
    "As I suspected, the Census Bureau put out a trumped up report showing a raging rise in housing starts for July yesterday. The majority of the statistically manipulated number came from a pop in starts for large apartment buildings."

    Now, the most blatant lie here is the "As I suspected" part. Of course he never, ever said the Census Bureau would publish a better-than-expected housing starts report. So pretty much he's trying to gloss over yet another of his bad calls.
    Aug 20 08:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Starting To Price In The Next Housing Downturn [View article]
    I don't own any homebuilders directly, though I'm sure there's probably some in my IWV.
    Aug 20 01:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Starting To Price In The Next Housing Downturn [View article]
    Goodness gracious, look what zoomed up 2.6% compared to the SPX's 0.5%?
    http://on.mktw.net/1dO...

    Golly gee, I thought Dave said that wasn't supposed to happen. But since Dave said above that the DJUSHB underperforming the SPX was, "Not a good omen for the homies," let's see if he stops by and tells us that the DJUSHB *out*performing the SPX - 3 of 4 days now - is "a good omen for the homies."
    Aug 19 04:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Momentum Continues For Home Builder Confidence Even As Affordability Continues Its Decline [View article]
    "Just in time for winter! Just in time for the economy to die."

    If at 10 times you don't succeed, try try again.

    BTW it should be "they're," not "their."
    Aug 19 11:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Starting To Price In The Next Housing Downturn [View article]
    I fully expect Dave, within the next 24 hours, to write an article telling us there is something wrong with the seasonal adjustments, or it's inconsistent with some other metric, or that maybe it's just flat-out "fraudulent."
    Aug 19 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Starting To Price In The Next Housing Downturn [View article]
    Oh my, guess what finished up 2% again today compared to the SPX's 0.85%?
    http://bit.ly/1dOYgij
    Oops!
    Aug 18 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Starting To Price In The Next Housing Downturn [View article]
    I'm not sure which "top" you're referring to. The most recent top was the middle of last year, but there's no law saying it can't go higher. For all we know it could be range-bound for quite a while.
    Aug 18 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Starting To Price In The Next Housing Downturn [View article]
    That depends on how far in the future you're talking about. The peak of the DJUSHB in July 2005 was actually pretty coinicident with the peak of the housing bubble in 2005-06. So its future discounting was not that far in the future. Probably the same thing is happening now. Perhaps the market knows there's still some overhang from the housing crash left to clear out for the next, say, year, or two at the most. After that we could start to see homebuilders outperform the rest of the market.

    And in the meantime, the homebuilders *have* outperformed the market for brief periods of time, at least.
    Aug 18 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Starting To Price In The Next Housing Downturn [View article]
    There's still quite a bit of overhang from the housing crash. At present I don't think anyone is calling it "healthy" or "normal" (look at present housing starts or new home sales compared to historical norms), but the point is, it's nonetheless been slowly improving and still has lots of upside potential.

    In fact, I find people saying housing currently is in a "bubble" to be rather ludicrous when one looks at those two statistics.
    Aug 18 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Starting To Price In The Next Housing Downturn [View article]
    Oops:
    http://on.mktw.net/1Bt...
    Gosh don't you just hate it when that happens?
    Aug 18 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does The J.C. Penney Whisper Number Indicate Investor Confidence? [View article]
    I think they should have whispered louder. Maybe a shout would have sufficed.
    Aug 14 04:09 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stock Market Is Starting To Price In The Next Housing Downturn [View article]
    Oh my, guess what finished up 2% today compared to the SPX's 0.4%?
    http://on.mktw.net/1dO...

    Methinks this had something to do with it. Oops.
    http://bit.ly/1pPRgsI
    Aug 14 04:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • June JOLTS [View news story]
    Check out the graph!
    http://bit.ly/1sNsCct
    Aug 12 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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