User 265729

Cycles, Recessions, and Looking Forward

Condiser_this, Consider this...

It was just reported that facory orders in Japan fell by 16.2 percent -- the most on record. What did the economists think and project? A fall of 8 precent -- they missed it by more than double.

Most people do not understand how this vortex is sucking up everything around it. It is consuming everything in its path. It is bigger than the Fed and bigger than the governments trying to stop it. Wealth has plunged off a cliff in the United States, by perhaps $12-15 trillion last year, if not more.

Let me put it this way, by the time Obama's package is passed, the U.S. could lose another $2-3 trillion in wealth -- from today. All of this has taken years/decades to build up and it's going up in smoke before our eyes.

This is not 1928... Far from it. We should be so lucky that this will be like 1928.


On Jan 14 05:37 PM Consider_this wrote:

> Nothing goes straight up; Similarly, nothing goes straight down,
> not even in the 30s.
>
> Right now there is too many shorts and too much pessimism in the
> market.
>
> I agree the general direction is down, but recent action market action
> is too extreme, and can be explained if you assume majority of the
> market is now short or trying to run to safety.
>
> This implies there'll be a "short killing short" squeeze event soon.
> It would lend (false) credibility to people shouting 2nd half recovery
> while simultaneously killing all the short profits.
>
> Only when the market truly factors in optimistically expects 2nd
> half recovery, will we have our final leg down.
>
> Even then, we're not anywhere close to the final showdown yet. Just
> look at how Japan's stock market swing and swooned.
>
> This is a long war and each individual battle doesn't decide the
> outcome.