User 265729

Humility of Realism II: Seven Thoughts about Our Whole System

Really, Do you get paid by the post for this?

Since the server for Seeking Alpha is located in Israel, how do they pay for posts here?

Perhaps if I give a couple of links in regards to Seekin Alpha funding, etc, I think you'd find it interesting.

PS: Please give me lots of thumbs down so I'll no longer be a top contributer cecase Seekin Alpha, as it turns out, is a SHAM.

Humility of Realism II: Seven Thoughts about Our Whole System

David,

I'm sure you work for a government contractor in Herndon, Virgina.

How much to they pay you to do this? Is it by the post, or what?

Random Observations on the GDP Announcement

Excellent observations, but you missed a few of the most important factors:

Inventories

Adjusted prices

Revisions

$billions and $billions in inventories (and growing). The way it's constructed the GDP figures include inventories, so auto companies can produce $100 billion in cars and when nobody buys them, it's still a + for the GDP.

If you adjust for price changes, the GDP was the worst since 1958.

On top of this, expect the "usual" U.S. Government "revision" downward.

The economy is going down the drain faster and faster. Sorry bulls, but you are bull, that's for sure. Gold is +

I'm Old School

But when the markets BECOME the government, then you are in big trouble. That's where we are today. Markets are not rising and falling based on long/short-range outlooks PE or anything else that makes sense. It's all about the bailout de jour. After the bailout is passed, the markets start to tank again, until the government throws in another $trillion for the next quarter.

When I hear CEOs speak or when outlooks are issues, most are not positive anytime in 2009 OR 2010. Stocks are significantly overpriced based on conditions and the only thing shilling them up is our tax $$$, but that won't continue past Q3 2009. They are hoping to buy a "lift" then do a psych job on invesors C/O the media like CNBC.

Won't work, but the government is doing the only thing they know how to do: Spend money.


On Jan 28 08:23 PM D. McHattie wrote:

> I will admit that I'm not a terribly experienced investor/speculator/tr...
> But one element I remember about doing a strategic analysis in b
> school is that you have to give consideration to the overall environment
> in which the business is operating.
>
> Governments are and have always been a critical component of environmental
> analysis and you ignore them at your peril.

I'm Old School

"That last week in November until last week period was predominantly bullish."

I've never really seen CNBC not being bullish. Of course, when you get below the surface, where do they get their money? Ads from big business. Who do the talking heads get paid? I'm sure all of them have a segment paid by GE stock -- thus the glum faces on Cramer to Matt Lauer.


On Jan 28 09:33 PM keithpiccirillo wrote:

> I think you took the GS short off one day too soon.
> Cnbc must be listened to selectively - today I did watch the Heebner
> segment with Cramer. Watch MarketWatch on Bloomberg weekend.
> It is much less confrontational.
> That last week in November until last week period was predominantly
> bullish.

I'm Old School

Wasn't the original Chrysler bailout in 1978-79 done with a Republican administration, or was the President and Congress in "split control" during that period?


On Jan 28 08:08 PM Just Say Whoa! wrote:

> "I cannot recall one moment when the government interfered in our
> so called free market."
>
> That's called "C.R.S", haha!
>
> To refresh your memory, here's a brief history of US Bailouts, including
> 3 bailouts done by -R presidents:
>
> * Continental Illinois National Bank and Trust Company 1984 Then
> the nation's eighth largest bank, Continental Illinois had suffered
> significant losses after purchasing $1 billion in energy loans from
> the failed Penn Square Bank of Oklahoma. The FDIC and Federal Reserve
> devised a plan to rescue the bank that included replacing the bank's
> top executives. $9.5 billion
>
> ● Savings & Loan 1989 After the widespread failure of savings
> and loan institutions, President George H. W. Bush signed and Congress
> enacted the Financial Institutions Reform Recovery and Enforcement
> Act in 1989. $293.3 billion
>
> ● Airline Industry 2001 The terrorist attacks of September 11 crippled
> an already financially troubled industry. To bail out the airlines,
> President Bush signed into law the Air Transportation Safety and
> Stabilization Act, which compensated airlines for the mandatory grounding
> of aircraft after the attacks. The act released $5 billion in compensation
> and an additional $10 billion in loan guarantees or other federal
> credit instruments.
>
> Source:
> www.propublica.org/spe...
>
>

'Bad Bank' Does Not Trump a 'Bad Market'

I like your style Hoover...

Want to see something really funny from CNBC... Read or watch this and then look at the date:

www.cnbc.com/id/258484...

When you stop laughing, let me know what you think.


On Jan 28 08:14 PM Herbert Hoover wrote:

> Everything is fine. Next step Dow 14000!!!!!!!!!!
>
> Buy Buy Buy

I'm Old School

TRADER:

I'm surprised anyone watches CNBC anymore. The best US source is Bloomberg, buy they are getting into the hype a bit lately too. If you want to see something funny from CNBC, check out this link that I found cleaning out my bookmarks on CNBC:

www.cnbc.com/id/258484...

Yep! You should have bought then!

I thought everyone could use a laugh...

Buffett's S&P 500 Puts: Big Blunder?

Is Buffett considered an "inside trader" under SEC laws, or is he excluded for being a poster boy to psyc the economy up?

FOMC Statement, Redacted Version

P.S.: Bloomberg headline today, for example:

"U.S. Stocks Gain, Extend Global Rally on Bank-Bailout Plan"

FOMC Statement, Redacted Version

The Federal Open Market Committee? Market?

Maybe the U.S. Goverment is running a shill market.

Look at the markets today. Based on sound fundamentals? Based on any long-range outlook (1-2 years) that things will significantly improve? NO! When you hear this phrase on the news:

"Stocks rallied today [FILL IN THE BLANK WITH ANY ONE OF THE ITEMS BELOW]..."

1. ...after the House approved a bailout plan...

2. ...after a bailout plan was proposed...

3. ...when the government....

4. ...after the Fed said....

5. ...based on the Senate vote...

6 ...on a/an $X billion or $X trillion dollar stimulus...

Let me tell you something, when you have the U.S. Government saying that they'll do "whatever it takes," I assume they mean lie, cheat, steal and even kill to make things look good.

Meanwhile the IMF sharply revised the downbeat of the economy today and the International Labor Organization (ILO) said that 51 MILLION JOBS could be lost in the world THIS YEAR.

But this is all about appearances, not the real world economy.

Davos '09 and the Failure of Leadership

PS: At Davos, a great statement from the South African PM, Trevor Manuel:

...wealthy nations appeared to be adopting a "lemming-like approach, trying to get to the precipice without knowing what their money would buy."

Trevor: The lemmings are off the cliff, one after the other.

Davos '09 and the Failure of Leadership

Trust? This economy is a joke! The markets are government shills.

Look at the markets today. Based on sound fundamentals? Based on any long-range outlook (1-2 years) that things will significantly improve? NO! When you hear this phrase on the news:

"Stocks rallied today [FILL IN THE BLANK WITH ANY ONE OF THE ITEMS BELOW]..."

1. ...after the House approved a bailout plan...

2. ...after a bailout plan was proposed...

3. ...when the government....

4. ...after the Fed said....

5. ...based on the Senate vote...

6 ...on a/an $X billion or $X trillion dollar stimulus...

Let me tell you something, when you have the U.S. Government saying that they'll do "whatever it takes," I assume they mean lie, cheat, steal and even kill to make things look good.

Meanwhile the IMF sharply revised the downbeat of the economy sharply today and the International Labor Organization (ILO) said that 51 MILLION JOBS could be lost in the world THIS YEAR.

But this is all about appearances, not the real world economy.

Fannie and Freddie: Supply Curves Slope Up, Demand Curves Slope Down

Don't complicate things for Bernanke with charts and graphs.

Meanwhile, Elsewhere around the Globe...

The International Labor Organization (ILO) of the United Nations said that 51 MILLION PEOPLE may lose their jobs THIS YEAR.

This is absolutely scary stuff. This will have serious consequences for the stability of all nations.