Realitychecker's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/265743/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/160123-what-the-iea-doesn-t-want-you-to-know-about-peak-oil?source=feed#comment-665089 665089
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As Lionel Badel’s excellent article strongly suggests, globally speaking, governments of all political persuasions still don't want to debate this topic publically. One can only speculate on the reasons for their timidity, but I believe it's because their financial sponsors want them to maintain the "business as usual" approach of continuous economic growth. That this economic model is unsustainable on a planet endowed with finite fossil fuel (and other mineral) resources appears to be incomprehensible to our governing elites.

The proof of this incomprehension is illustrated by the vast sums of (virtual) money being created to stimulate economies around the globe. Ironically, this approach had it been adopted in the 1930's would probably have prevented the decade long depression, because oil was relatively cheap and abundant so economic activity would have recommenced. Unfortunately this is no longer the case today, so the current financial stimulus policies will almost certainly fail to achieve its objective, since energy shortages will choke off economic recovery.]]> Mon, 07 Sep 2009 11:05:28 -0400
www.energybulletin.net...

As Lionel Badel’s excellent article strongly suggests, globally speaking, governments of all political persuasions still don't want to debate this topic publically. One can only speculate on the reasons for their timidity, but I believe it's because their financial sponsors want them to maintain the "business as usual" approach of continuous economic growth. That this economic model is unsustainable on a planet endowed with finite fossil fuel (and other mineral) resources appears to be incomprehensible to our governing elites.

The proof of this incomprehension is illustrated by the vast sums of (virtual) money being created to stimulate economies around the globe. Ironically, this approach had it been adopted in the 1930's would probably have prevented the decade long depression, because oil was relatively cheap and abundant so economic activity would have recommenced. Unfortunately this is no longer the case today, so the current financial stimulus policies will almost certainly fail to achieve its objective, since energy shortages will choke off economic recovery.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/154901-peak-oil-for-dummies?source=feed#comment-630964 630964
www.shell.com/home/con...]]> Sat, 15 Aug 2009 11:42:02 -0400
www.shell.com/home/con...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/343576-plan-b-economics/14308-oil-production-probably-peaked-in-2008?source=feed#comment-593797 593797 A succinct assessment of the situation by Plan B Economics. Whilst its difficult to predict the exact manner in which Peak Oil will play out in the future, the following are my own views of some of the key isssues that need to be considered.

The rules for sustainable life on earth are not based on Economic principles, but the principles of Ecology. Since the rules of Ecology are based on two immutable laws, namely the First and Second Laws of Thermodynamics, it won't matter whether one adopts the economic principles of Adam Smith or Karl Marx, thermodynamics will always win in the end. On this basis, exploitation of finite non-renewable resources such as oil means the benefit obtained will always be temporary. Once the Hubbert Peak is reached the physics of oil extraction means the rate of oil extraction starts to decline irreversibly i.e. the difference between demand and progressively decreasing supply grows, thus ending the era of cheap oil forever. This fact means everyone living on this planet needs to recognise that their expectation of continuous economic growth will have to change, since economic growth has always been driven by our increasing consumption on energy.

Two key ecological requirements for the long term existence of any species living on this planet are:-

1) Low utilisation of energy, but with a very slight positive gain due mostly to photosynthesis, which enables sufficient food (fuel) to be available for its long term survival.
2) Its population remains static and in equilibrium with a stable (climaxed) environment.

When met, these key requirements ensure the environmental carrying capacity for the species can be supported for the long term.

Whilst nobody can predict the future with certainty, alternative energy sources are likely to be developed given sufficient levels of investment and time, e.g. wind, tidal, solar, next generation fission reactors and ultimately fusion. However, given the current financial crisis, it’s unlikely the capital investment will be available in sufficient quantity in the short to medium term, and given that alternative energy platforms need 20-30 year to develop, it’s unlikely they will be available in sufficient quantity to compensate for the imminent decline in the rate of oil production. However, even when adequate alternative sources of energy are eventually developed, they will only serve to prolong the period of economic growth with its associated population growth, until such time as some other key resource is depleted, thus bringing economic growth to a halt again - Liebig’s Law (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...).

This means that at some future point in the future, the human carrying capacity of the earth will start declining, and we either “manage” the global population down to a level that can be supported sustainably by the earth’s remaining resources, or else nature will do it through the traditional agencies of the metaphorical Four horsemen, the choice is ours.]]> Sun, 19 Jul 2009 11:43:33 -0400 A succinct assessment of the situation by Plan B Economics. Whilst its difficult to predict the exact manner in which Peak Oil will play out in the future, the following are my own views of some of the key isssues that need to be considered.

The rules for sustainable life on earth are not based on Economic principles, but the principles of Ecology. Since the rules of Ecology are based on two immutable laws, namely the First and Second Laws of Thermodynamics, it won't matter whether one adopts the economic principles of Adam Smith or Karl Marx, thermodynamics will always win in the end. On this basis, exploitation of finite non-renewable resources such as oil means the benefit obtained will always be temporary. Once the Hubbert Peak is reached the physics of oil extraction means the rate of oil extraction starts to decline irreversibly i.e. the difference between demand and progressively decreasing supply grows, thus ending the era of cheap oil forever. This fact means everyone living on this planet needs to recognise that their expectation of continuous economic growth will have to change, since economic growth has always been driven by our increasing consumption on energy.

Two key ecological requirements for the long term existence of any species living on this planet are:-

1) Low utilisation of energy, but with a very slight positive gain due mostly to photosynthesis, which enables sufficient food (fuel) to be available for its long term survival.
2) Its population remains static and in equilibrium with a stable (climaxed) environment.

When met, these key requirements ensure the environmental carrying capacity for the species can be supported for the long term.

Whilst nobody can predict the future with certainty, alternative energy sources are likely to be developed given sufficient levels of investment and time, e.g. wind, tidal, solar, next generation fission reactors and ultimately fusion. However, given the current financial crisis, it’s unlikely the capital investment will be available in sufficient quantity in the short to medium term, and given that alternative energy platforms need 20-30 year to develop, it’s unlikely they will be available in sufficient quantity to compensate for the imminent decline in the rate of oil production. However, even when adequate alternative sources of energy are eventually developed, they will only serve to prolong the period of economic growth with its associated population growth, until such time as some other key resource is depleted, thus bringing economic growth to a halt again - Liebig’s Law (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...).

This means that at some future point in the future, the human carrying capacity of the earth will start declining, and we either “manage” the global population down to a level that can be supported sustainably by the earth’s remaining resources, or else nature will do it through the traditional agencies of the metaphorical Four horsemen, the choice is ours.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96235-peak-oil-are-we-there-yet?source=feed#comment-259523 259523
The reality is that global oil production has been on an undulating plateau since c. 2005 and its consequences are likely to become increasingly unpleasant for us all. In the 1970's a 5% shortfall in supply caused the price of oil to almost quadruple initiating a serious recession. If we are now on a plateau, the resultant oil demand destruction due to recession will temporarily correct the supply/demand imbalance and reduce the price of oil. When the global economy starts to expand again the demand for oil will increase, but supply constraints will cause its price to start increasing again, which in turn precipitates another recession. This cycle will continue until the oil plateau ends with an irreversible decline in oil production, how long this plateau lasts is debatable, but it may not be that long.

If the world has failed to develop sustainable alternatives to oil when oil production eventually goes into decline we will all be in deep trouble. Fossil based energy, in particular oil, has enabled the global economy to expand allowing the population to grow to 6.7 billion, the resultant energy crunch will be disastrous without viable alternatives capable of providing equivalent amounts of energy suitable for electricity generation and feedstock’s for the petrochemical industry.

A combination of stupidity and greed by the banking sector combined with weak ineffectual regulation, allowed a housing bubble to develop that has now burst, causing the current financial crisis. A major concern should be that this banking crisis, combined with the economic consequences of an oil production plateau, will drain the global economy of the wealth needed to fund the massive investment needed to develop and construct alternative and sustainable sources of energy for power production, transport fuel, and feedstock’s for the chemical industry.

This link gives an excellent “crash course” in economic concepts and peak oil, www.chrismartenson.com.... In addition, the book “The Last Oil Shock: A Survival Guide to the Imminent Extinction of Petroleum Man” by David Strahan is well worth reading.
]]> Fri, 19 Sep 2008 16:31:45 -0400
The reality is that global oil production has been on an undulating plateau since c. 2005 and its consequences are likely to become increasingly unpleasant for us all. In the 1970's a 5% shortfall in supply caused the price of oil to almost quadruple initiating a serious recession. If we are now on a plateau, the resultant oil demand destruction due to recession will temporarily correct the supply/demand imbalance and reduce the price of oil. When the global economy starts to expand again the demand for oil will increase, but supply constraints will cause its price to start increasing again, which in turn precipitates another recession. This cycle will continue until the oil plateau ends with an irreversible decline in oil production, how long this plateau lasts is debatable, but it may not be that long.

If the world has failed to develop sustainable alternatives to oil when oil production eventually goes into decline we will all be in deep trouble. Fossil based energy, in particular oil, has enabled the global economy to expand allowing the population to grow to 6.7 billion, the resultant energy crunch will be disastrous without viable alternatives capable of providing equivalent amounts of energy suitable for electricity generation and feedstock’s for the petrochemical industry.

A combination of stupidity and greed by the banking sector combined with weak ineffectual regulation, allowed a housing bubble to develop that has now burst, causing the current financial crisis. A major concern should be that this banking crisis, combined with the economic consequences of an oil production plateau, will drain the global economy of the wealth needed to fund the massive investment needed to develop and construct alternative and sustainable sources of energy for power production, transport fuel, and feedstock’s for the chemical industry.

This link gives an excellent “crash course” in economic concepts and peak oil, www.chrismartenson.com.... In addition, the book “The Last Oil Shock: A Survival Guide to the Imminent Extinction of Petroleum Man” by David Strahan is well worth reading.
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