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livshk

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  • Apple: Still Tops At The Top End? [View article]
    be careful about the earning running up - last quarter 9 down days out of 10 days leaning to earning day. huge pop after the earning then down trend resumed. I hope it's different this time.
    Jul 2 05:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Apple Be Worried About Microsoft's Tablet? [View article]
    Personally. I have the Microsoft fatigue. I get stuck using Microsoft PC, Microsoft Office all day long in office at work. dealing with various issues like performance, crash, freezing - granted not all MSFT's fault, some of them due to in-house support, probablem with other (non-MSFT) apps we use here. So stepping out of office - I just don't want to use MSFT products .. I am feeling tired just hearing "Microsoft", "Windows".. so I agree with what the first commenter wrote above.
    Jun 19 02:47 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If the rumors of a Facebook (FB) phone are true, investors should consider abandoning ship, says Henry Blodget. The company would have to face intense and entrenched competition to establish itself in a field that could hurt its own margins in a move that smacks of defensive desperation.  [View news story]
    Man .. women to sell FB phones to - don't forget the cats & dogs as well ..

    and what makes you think just because someone has an FB account he/she wants a FB phone ?

    I have a FB account out of necessity - to keep in touch with my larger circle of friends. I check my account every a couple of days but do not dwell long. As a happy camper of Apple products, I will never get an FB phone, even if it's free as I don't want to carry two phones.
    Most of my friends are like me - how they use their FB accounts or some simply resist to have an FB accounts. If FB cuts of native app access on other platforms, I'll tolerate accessing from web.

    Sure everything is possible - FB can be as good as Apple in hardware design, platform, ecosystem, and beat Apple on supply chain. While at the same time, kill Android/google, Microsoft .. along the way. but let's just say it's no trivial matter. Speaking of margin - in the mobil market, Apple grabs 70% of revenue, Samsung about 25%, HTC 1%, the rest are not making money or losing money. Apple does not get to where it is by one or two tricks.

    and FB will never be able to get to billions of people in China. Even if it's not blocked, FB will not be able to compete with the giangantic home grown social networks there.
    May 29 07:51 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's June Quarter: The Halftime Report [View article]
    You don't need a desktop just for accessing CD/DVD. you can get that $79 sleek external CD/DVD drive for occasional needs :
    http://bit.ly/K4CVVM
    May 21 05:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's June Quarter: The Halftime Report [View article]
    The New iPAD is available in China - they came in via "unofficial" channels such as from HK. I am sure there will be some impact but probably limited.

    The negotiation is still on ongoing - According to Chinese news source - Proview, backed up by state bank creditors, asks for 400M as that's what they owe the 8 state banks, Apple is not willing to offer higher then 100M RMB (about 15M USD). Interestingly enough, these numbers were all leaked out from Proview who really seems to start losing patience and Apple has kept silent about the progress as usual.
    May 20 11:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Facebook IPO hurting Apple (AAPL -1.8%)? As shares fall further below the levels they traded at prior to Apple's strong FQ2 report, one theory making the rounds is that NASDAQ index funds are selling to make room for Facebook and its likely $100B+ market cap. In addition, Bloomberg reports a number of major hedge funds, including SAC Capital and Viking Global, took profits on Apple in Q1, though they collectively still held 37.8M shares at quarter's end.  [View news story]
    http://bit.ly/KEgMNW
    May 17 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Worst Enemy: Apple [View article]
    well said; you hit the nail on the head.
    May 17 12:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Drop Now Too Large To Ignore [View article]
    "But, just look at how fast Apple lost market share in smart phone. Can the same thing happen in tablet computer?"

    Sigh... this shows how shallow author's understanding of the smartphone market. It's hugely expanding pie. Androids are simply filling in the vacuum with hundreds of manufactures in particularly on carriers Apple is yet to reach. Look at iPhone numbers on carriers it is on, better yet - compare iOS and Androids profit capture comparison. I suggest Author do some readings on asymco.com.

    DoCoMo's (Japan's biggest carrier) negotiation with Apple is still in deadlock as Apple refuse to let DoCoMo pre-install their proprietary i-mode software (I have lived in Japan and used it, it's total crap, basically pre-smartphone internet access app). Several of my friends in Japan have already jumped ship once their DoCoMo contracts completed. In Japan, Apple is the number one loved brand and iPhone is the #1 selling smartphone in 2011.

    Who cares abou "market share" - when Apple captures majority of the profit in the industry, iOS developers captures significantly more app revenue and iOS devices captures majority of the mobile traffic ? (makes you wonder what % of Android simply use their phones as dumb phones ?)
    May 17 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Drop Now Too Large To Ignore [View article]
    It's quite obvious that one of the factors is MMs pulling out of Apple to make quick bucks on FB IPO. Apple is in its annual resting/slingshot pullback/correction (whatever you call it!) period, why not take the fund to chase off other stocks, then come back and drive another AAPL run-up? that's what PROs do and that's how the game is played. I am not a bit worried and going to add more position in the next 2-3 days - near term catalyst: Tim Cook's keynote speech @D10 end of May; WWDC in June.
    May 17 11:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Important Information From Amazon's Q1 [View article]
    "explosive growth in China" - do you have any facts or data to back it up ?
    May 14 12:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Most Important Information From Amazon's Q1 [View article]
    Regarding "China is growing very fast" - do we know of any data to back up?

    Since I can't find any, I did a little digging on Chinese web sites (I am Chinese).

    from the market research firm iResearch.com (a leading market research firm specializing in e-Commerce, online media ..) in China - Amazon China moves between 3rd or 4th place in China in B2C platforms - 3rd in the latest quarter with 3.5% market share - after 7 years in China. First place TMall and second place 360buy enjoys huge leads of of 50.1% and 22.7% respectively.

    Perhaps someone will say it represents a huge upside for Amazon in China. Not really. China is a tough market to crack for online/web business models. Even before Google left Chinese market, local grown Baidu was a formidable competitor. Most Chinese I knew including myself when used Baidu.com for Chinese contents and google for english contents. Similarly, Chinese version of the twitter - there are several of them - grew like wildfire, even if Twitter was not blocked by government, the local versions would still be more poplar.

    Coming back to online retail - I have hardly heard (actually never) my Chinese friends mentoring using Amazon.cn, most of them shop on other Chinese B2C or C2C platforms. I live in HK, there were actually a couple of times I wanted to order something (being an overseas I am more familiar with Amazon) from Amazon China, but the shipping to Hk was too high and I ended up with getting the stuff from Taobao (dominating C2C in China). I lived in japan for a long time and had similar experience that local grown online shopping is a lot more popular then Amazon.co.jp.

    I just saw this Feb 2012 report from iResearch's chief analyst : http://bit.ly/Kh03xB (page 11) - it's in Chinese, but Amazon is in dark blue in the bar chart. It shows Amazon't market share in China has been shrinking. Note this analysis includes Taobao which is mostly C2C. The table on the right is the rate of increase (Amazon is the one listed below "VANCL")

    I don;t know how Amazon can compete and win here. Amazon is crippled from cultural stand point - it won't be able to just undercutting its competitors with lower prices. Perhaps better customer service, better inventory management ? are they enough, and the Chinese won't catch up (I don't even know if there is a gap there).

    General retail is tough to gain grounds in China - The big French supermarket Carrefour has struggled in China for 15 years and has recently rumored to leave China. McDonalds, Starbucks and Coca Cola are doing great in China because they are selling a culture, a brand. Amazon.cn still sells the same Chinese stuff as TMall, 360Buy and Taobao.

    iResearch Amazon China 2011 sales totaled 6B RMB (Don't think Amazon has shared any Chinese market data ?) - facing a lot more competition, their margin in China cannot be higher then what they have in US.
    May 14 12:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) is reportedly in talks to acquire Loewe, a German maker of high-end TVs and speakers sporting minimalist designs, with a final decision due this week. A source claims Apple is offering $112M, a 47% premium to Loewe's Friday close on the Frankfurt exchange. The report comes shortly after Foxconn's chairman said his company is preparing to make an Apple TV set. Sharp, which just received an investment from Foxconn, owns 28.8% of Loewe. Update: Loewe is denying the rumor, but some investors aren't convinced, as its shares are still up 24.6%.  [View news story]
    SA you need to catch up on the news - Loewe has already denied this rumor.
    May 14 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Now A 'Trading' Stock [View article]
    Oh tell me about it, I wish we had an SA Apple 'Claim Chowder';

    It amazes me that how many of them declare Apple is doomed while so obviously lack of minimum understanding of what Apple is. How can you proclaim Apple is losing ground against competitors when you don't understand at the first place why Apple has been ahead and why Apple users are so loyal ? The fact that the author makes a point about iCloud facing challenges from other cloud offering shows how clueless he is about his subject.
    May 10 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economics Of The iPhone [View article]

    muoio, I suggest you listen to a recent episode of The Critical Path podcast by Horace Dediu http://bit.ly/KQMvri - Horace predicted what the mobile phone landscape will be when the smartphone market is saturated : carriers will be forced to complete with each other on services, data plan prices will come down. smartphones will become an important life companion and people will be willing to pay full prices - and with cheaper monthly plan net net the the total cost ends up at the level or even cheaper.

    I am on my 4th iPhone now. The 3gs was stolen last Sept after owning it for almost 2 years, once I knew from the 4S launch that HK was not in the first around, I could not wait and got an iPhone4. then my iPhone 4 was stolen again during busy Christmas shopping (Erk!), I was so bummed .. was going to get an full-price replacement from store as I am only starting my new 2-year contract but both iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S were sold out in HK, finally after some persuasion my carrier agree to letting me add another 2-year contract - but this time around the deal was: full-price up-front but kick-backs on monthly plan. so in this case, my carrier was unwilling to foot a second subsidy in two months (understandably) but to me net net 2-year cost is about the same.

    My new iPhone 4s had an occasional audio problem (the speaker would pop up by itself sometimes when making voice calls), I took it to Apple Store a month later and was swapped with new unit - mo question asked. Now this is what I call service !

    Back to Apple, take a look at its history - before the best selling iPod plateaued, came the iPhone and it quickly became the company's biggest revenue generator, while slowdown of iPhone's growth is still hardly at horizon, iPad is poised to experience its meteoric growth. Is the pattern still not clear ? it's in Apple's DNA.

    I like what Horce Dediu tweeted yesterday "Since there have been almost no companies that were consistently disruptive, those that do disrupt are seen as accidentally successful".

    I would also like to quote one of the comments I just saw on Horace's Asymco.com on an article about smart phone revenue distribution : "There is no smartphone market. It is an iPhone market. If Apple were on all the same carriers as Samsung, then Samsung would have made no profits either. Samsung is surviving just by making house brand iPhones for carriers who don't have real ones. Everybody else is already dead." - while the claim sounds a little audacious, there is a level of truism in it ..
    May 9 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Sell Microsoft, Netflix Or Apple? [View article]
    A case study right in front of our eye : GMCR.

    it's 50D MA crossed above 100D MA on March 9th. On March 21, the stock has a ~5% jump and the 50D line now broke 5% above 100D line. on April 2nd, 50D MA is about over 8% above.

    someone who had been interested and had been eating for an entry point would have bought in following Peter's methodology.

    However. 50D MA started to trend down starting there - approximately around April 30 it had a death cross ! Next day May 2nd - 50D MA was 1% under 100DMA.

    Note that the stock from April 10th to April 30th the share price actually climbed from 41 sty to 48 sth.

    An investor who is armed with such technical analysis mind set would have been highly alarmed with recent convergence of the two trend lines, despite of the upper trend of the share price, and sold off immediately and minimized the loss on this brutal day.

    Amazingly powerful stuff - thank you Peter!
    May 3 02:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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