hoover

S&P Set for 50%+ Gains? Not So Fast, UBS

True. All you have to do is look at the several major bear market rallies from 1929 through 1932. These were big rallies on the Dow lasting months. Prosperity was "right around the corner" acording to the politicians of the era, but they never found the right corner. When the first cycle was over the Dow had lost a "mere" 89%. Then the market rose for a few years, before collapsing again slowly in the late thirties. Finally WW-II began, millions of young were pulled from the work force to fight the war (reducing unemployment), government took over production to produce war equipment, the equipment was destroyed in the war reducing supply, consumers products were rationed further reducing supply, and pay was pumped into workers pockets that couldn't spend the money because goods were unavailable, Result after the war: people had money to spend for the first time in 15 years, high demand existed from a goods-starved population, and companies were converting back to consumer goods to increase supply. Demand was high, U.S. was victorious, and people had money to spend -- the thirties depression in 1946 was finally over. Today, like 1930, we have too many goods (supply) and too little money to buy the goods. Obama and his financial team are going to have many sleepless nights.


On Dec 06 04:12 PM the_feds_corrupt wrote:

> The banks right now are "flush" with cash from the fed.The banks
> are begining to buy each others stocks .Look for the financials to
> lead the way in the next bear rally.They will attempt to "jump start
> the markets" and then sell their positions before the average investor
> is just getting fully invested.In that way the banks will reap handsome
> profits.
> They will also do the same thing with the chinese market.
> All depressions and recessions have large bear market rallies -we
> will have one as well.
> Watch for the following to determine when a rally begins
> 1) investor sentiment seems hopeless
> 2)the market shakes off "bad news" or becomes immune to bad news.
>
> 3)the Russell 2000 leads the way up.
> 4)The financial sectors garner strength.
> Once these forces become apparent we will have a rally. It will not
> sustain itself -but we will have it !
> It could take us from 11k to 13k somewhere in that range.
> It happens in ALL bear markets it will happen here as well.
> g/l to all cheers...;}