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presidentasp

presidentasp
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  • The Bleeding Has Only Begun: Western Asset Mortgage Capital [View article]
    Book value fell by 66 cents. Hence today's beating. Pretty simple actually.
    Jul 31, 2015. 02:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Greece, The Euro And The Impact On Global Markets [View article]
    Greece is like the U.S.-----25 years from now, if we don't stop govt. expansion and spending ourselves into oblivion. Will be like a lighthouse warning for the future of our economy if we don't decide that we have done enough damage to our children's economic prospects and tighten our own bloated belts with cuts in govt programs and bureaucracies.
    Jul 7, 2015. 09:40 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Greece, The Euro And The Impact On Global Markets [View article]
    Then why not let the "rest of Europe" worry about the "rest of Europe"? They all climbed into bed on this one and will have to deal with ALL of the self indulgent partners without ignoring just the worst.
    Jul 7, 2015. 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are REITs Overvalued? Only A Fool Believes (Video) [View article]
    Phil---You are absolutely correct. Thing is---it doesn't matter if you and I are right. All that matters is that the market perceives all REIT's to be the same. We can use this knowledge to our advantage by picking a bottom at the first interest rate increase and wait for reality to set in to Mr. Market (credit to Brad for that one). Just a whisper of rate increases currently send the REIT market reeling now so the actual event ought to be a doozy---up or down is anybody's guess. If you are in it for the long haul, realize that the stocks Brad covers are way less likely to have a fundamental negative change in metrics due to interest rate increases than mREITS and bonds. The investment we make today may fluctuate in asset value but will most likely return the same or better dividend $ per share consistently over time. So if I am happy with the 4% return in div's on my investment, why not be happy next year when I am still getting it, regardless of the value of the stock (to a point, of course).
    May 8, 2015. 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are REITs Overvalued? Only A Fool Believes (Video) [View article]
    What matters for capital preservation is market perception, not reality. mReits ARE bond like (at least in the short haul once interest rates start to go up)and the market is apparently lumping ALL Reits into this category.

    2016 is too early for the Fed to raise rates. A 1% rate (even gradual) increase will effectively bankrupt the treasury as it is using something like 60% of current tax revenue to service the debt at the low interest rates we have now. Again, reality matters not. If the market thinks interest rates will rise soon, Reits will continue to be punished and there is no foreseeable end in sight to this scenario. The Fed will continue to "threaten" rate increases and will not do so soon (if ever). The conflicted market will therefore remain.
    May 7, 2015. 08:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing American Capital Agency Corp.'s BV, Dividend, Risk, And Valuation To Several mREIT Peers [View article]
    Thanks, Scott. Great work,
    by the way.
    Dec 10, 2014. 07:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing American Capital Agency Corp.'s BV, Dividend, Risk, And Valuation To Several mREIT Peers [View article]
    Scott, please share your opinion on the reason for the crash in REITs over the last few days. I don't see any interest rate changes that would have caused it. Have I missed some big news?
    Dec 9, 2014. 07:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sucker Yield REITs: Does Annaly Capital Management Qualify? [View article]
    I understand how you feel about the common stock. What is your view about owning the just short of 8% yield preferred?
    Sep 5, 2014. 07:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iShares Mortgage REIT Capped ETF announces quarterly distribution of $0.2917 [View news story]
    Surprised at such a sharp reduction over previous since sector seems to have stabilized and most are maintaining divs.
    Jun 24, 2014. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Recent Book Value And Dividend Compared To Its Agency mREIT Peers - Part 1 [View article]
    Scott,

    Do you think AGNC is holding off on Div announcement due to bad news to come?
    Mar 20, 2014. 12:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Dividend Range Scenarios For Q1 2014 [View article]
    Scott,

    You think the lack of action on the AGNC div announcement is negative?
    Mar 20, 2014. 09:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix to bring in venerable actresses for next original series [View news story]
    Jane Fonda? I'm cancelling my subscription and selling my stock.
    Mar 19, 2014. 01:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Dividend Range Scenarios For Q1 2014 [View article]
    As usual, great info and thorough analysis.
    Mar 6, 2014. 11:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish On Netflix At $450? [View article]
    "....and its efforts to tame content costs succeed..." This is the big "If". So far, so bad. And without the ability to raise prices, (Very price inelastic) it is now painted into a corner where it is d--ned if they do and ....you know the rest. They had to solve their streaming quality problem, but did it at the expense of the bottom line. The new deal with Comcast works out to a fixed cost per subscriber. Can't recover without a price hike and they will lose buckets of subscribers with a price hike. A dilemma I would not want to face in my business. When the market steps back from its exuberance it will not be so thrilled with NFLX. Range bound 400-460 for some time to come.
    Feb 27, 2014. 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix's Comcast Deal Supports $490 Price Tag, What's Next For The Market [View article]
    Truly astronomical P/E (can you say 2002?) and what must be a huge increase in costs with little room for a price increase cannot mean good things for the bottom line and will only increase the P/E going forward. This is a less than 300.00 stock. Waiting for the market to catch on that the rally was the opposite of the reaction it should have had if it were facing reality instead of wishful thinking. Only thing driving this stock is more buyers than sellers. Doesn't mean there's more smart people than lemmings. (We all know the opposite is true---can you say Hope and Change?) Time will shake it all out, just like AAPL.
    Feb 27, 2014. 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
60 Comments
133 Likes