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  • Are REITs Overvalued? Only A Fool Believes (Video) [View article]
    Phil---You are absolutely correct. Thing is---it doesn't matter if you and I are right. All that matters is that the market perceives all REIT's to be the same. We can use this knowledge to our advantage by picking a bottom at the first interest rate increase and wait for reality to set in to Mr. Market (credit to Brad for that one). Just a whisper of rate increases currently send the REIT market reeling now so the actual event ought to be a doozy---up or down is anybody's guess. If you are in it for the long haul, realize that the stocks Brad covers are way less likely to have a fundamental negative change in metrics due to interest rate increases than mREITS and bonds. The investment we make today may fluctuate in asset value but will most likely return the same or better dividend $ per share consistently over time. So if I am happy with the 4% return in div's on my investment, why not be happy next year when I am still getting it, regardless of the value of the stock (to a point, of course).
    May 8, 2015. 09:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are REITs Overvalued? Only A Fool Believes (Video) [View article]
    What matters for capital preservation is market perception, not reality. mReits ARE bond like (at least in the short haul once interest rates start to go up)and the market is apparently lumping ALL Reits into this category.

    2016 is too early for the Fed to raise rates. A 1% rate (even gradual) increase will effectively bankrupt the treasury as it is using something like 60% of current tax revenue to service the debt at the low interest rates we have now. Again, reality matters not. If the market thinks interest rates will rise soon, Reits will continue to be punished and there is no foreseeable end in sight to this scenario. The Fed will continue to "threaten" rate increases and will not do so soon (if ever). The conflicted market will therefore remain.
    May 7, 2015. 08:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing American Capital Agency Corp.'s BV, Dividend, Risk, And Valuation To Several mREIT Peers [View article]
    Thanks, Scott. Great work,
    by the way.
    Dec 10, 2014. 07:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Comparing American Capital Agency Corp.'s BV, Dividend, Risk, And Valuation To Several mREIT Peers [View article]
    Scott, please share your opinion on the reason for the crash in REITs over the last few days. I don't see any interest rate changes that would have caused it. Have I missed some big news?
    Dec 9, 2014. 07:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sucker Yield REITs: Does Annaly Capital Management Qualify? [View article]
    I understand how you feel about the common stock. What is your view about owning the just short of 8% yield preferred?
    Sep 5, 2014. 07:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iShares Mortgage REIT Capped ETF announces quarterly distribution of $0.2917 [View news story]
    Surprised at such a sharp reduction over previous since sector seems to have stabilized and most are maintaining divs.
    Jun 24, 2014. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Recent Book Value And Dividend Compared To Its Agency mREIT Peers - Part 1 [View article]

    Do you think AGNC is holding off on Div announcement due to bad news to come?
    Mar 20, 2014. 12:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Dividend Range Scenarios For Q1 2014 [View article]

    You think the lack of action on the AGNC div announcement is negative?
    Mar 20, 2014. 09:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix to bring in venerable actresses for next original series [View news story]
    Jane Fonda? I'm cancelling my subscription and selling my stock.
    Mar 19, 2014. 01:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Dividend Range Scenarios For Q1 2014 [View article]
    As usual, great info and thorough analysis.
    Mar 6, 2014. 11:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish On Netflix At $450? [View article]
    "....and its efforts to tame content costs succeed..." This is the big "If". So far, so bad. And without the ability to raise prices, (Very price inelastic) it is now painted into a corner where it is d--ned if they do and know the rest. They had to solve their streaming quality problem, but did it at the expense of the bottom line. The new deal with Comcast works out to a fixed cost per subscriber. Can't recover without a price hike and they will lose buckets of subscribers with a price hike. A dilemma I would not want to face in my business. When the market steps back from its exuberance it will not be so thrilled with NFLX. Range bound 400-460 for some time to come.
    Feb 27, 2014. 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix's Comcast Deal Supports $490 Price Tag, What's Next For The Market [View article]
    Truly astronomical P/E (can you say 2002?) and what must be a huge increase in costs with little room for a price increase cannot mean good things for the bottom line and will only increase the P/E going forward. This is a less than 300.00 stock. Waiting for the market to catch on that the rally was the opposite of the reaction it should have had if it were facing reality instead of wishful thinking. Only thing driving this stock is more buyers than sellers. Doesn't mean there's more smart people than lemmings. (We all know the opposite is true---can you say Hope and Change?) Time will shake it all out, just like AAPL.
    Feb 27, 2014. 09:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Preview: 3D Systems [View article]
    Yes, we should ignore the hype.
    Feb 27, 2014. 09:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: 4-D Printing A Threat To Long-Term Margins? [View article]
    DDD has taken a short term beating from the earnings warning, bears and Citron. As all stocks which have been oversold due to fictitious speculation, it rebounded nicely and is forming a bull flag going into earnings tomorrow. Will probably drop on earnings just as it did on the warning from management a few weeks ago. Funny how warnings and earnings seem to coincide with price drops. Everybody knows what's coming, but they panic when they hear the news again. If there is a panic, it will rebound nicely in the weeks following as the market realizes DDD is the leader on the cusp of an industry ready to explode, and resume business as usual. DDD is the Mcdonalds of its industry. The AAPL of the industry's eye. Nothing wrong with SSYS either. Ive got 75 May 14 naked puts which I expect to go out worthless. If they don't, I'll gladly take the stock at that point.
    Thanks for the opposing viewpoint.
    Feb 27, 2014. 09:13 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Dividend Sustainability Analysis (Post Q4 2013 Earnings) - Part 2 [View article]
    Scott, You are the "idiot-savant" of the Reit sector. (That's a good thing).
    Feb 25, 2014. 08:18 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment