Richard Dommer's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/26669/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/35983-implications-of-a-china-crash?source=feed#comment-86742 86742
"Stock Market in China's Modernization Process---- Its past, present and future prospects",
Zhiwu Chen, Yale School of Management, June 1, 2006
icf.som.yale.edu/resea...

The author notes near the end of the paper, as you have in comments above, the apparent disconnect between the Shanghai market and GDP growth in 2001-05 and also that this happened before (though in reverse - rising market w/ falling GDP) between 1994-99. He does observe that the HK "H-shares" market more closely correlates with actual PRC economy. He speculates on cause(s) for the apparent disconnects in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets with GDP.]]> Tue, 22 May 2007 08:44:21 -0400
"Stock Market in China's Modernization Process---- Its past, present and future prospects",
Zhiwu Chen, Yale School of Management, June 1, 2006
icf.som.yale.edu/resea...

The author notes near the end of the paper, as you have in comments above, the apparent disconnect between the Shanghai market and GDP growth in 2001-05 and also that this happened before (though in reverse - rising market w/ falling GDP) between 1994-99. He does observe that the HK "H-shares" market more closely correlates with actual PRC economy. He speculates on cause(s) for the apparent disconnects in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets with GDP.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/35983-implications-of-a-china-crash?source=feed#comment-86698 86698 Mon, 21 May 2007 16:17:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/35983-implications-of-a-china-crash?source=feed#comment-86629 86629
The participation of domestic retail investors in the Chinese equity market has gone through the roof. The total number of domestic individual equity accounts was 94 million, or over 7% of population, as of April 30, according to Goldman Sachs. In contrast, only 5% of the population had equity accounts in 2001.
"Moreover, new account opening is accelerating at a lightning pace--new individual account openings on April 30 alone exceeded 1 million, and total new individual account openings in April exceeded the sum of [those opened in] 2005 and 2006," said Goldman Sachs economist Hong Liang in a separate research report Thursday. "As a result, about 17% of the total existing accounts were opened just in the past 4 months."
www.marketwatch.com/ne...={EF44CF90-18BC-46E3-A...]]> Mon, 21 May 2007 07:36:58 -0400
The participation of domestic retail investors in the Chinese equity market has gone through the roof. The total number of domestic individual equity accounts was 94 million, or over 7% of population, as of April 30, according to Goldman Sachs. In contrast, only 5% of the population had equity accounts in 2001.
"Moreover, new account opening is accelerating at a lightning pace--new individual account openings on April 30 alone exceeded 1 million, and total new individual account openings in April exceeded the sum of [those opened in] 2005 and 2006," said Goldman Sachs economist Hong Liang in a separate research report Thursday. "As a result, about 17% of the total existing accounts were opened just in the past 4 months."
www.marketwatch.com/ne...={EF44CF90-18BC-46E3-A...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/35470-the-current-rally-should-continue-until-retail-investors-are-sucked-in?source=feed#comment-86554 86554
The participation of domestic retail investors in the Chinese equity market has gone through the roof. The total number of domestic individual equity accounts was 94 million, or over 7% of population, as of April 30, according to Goldman Sachs. In contrast, only 5% of the population had equity accounts in 2001.

"Moreover, new account opening is accelerating at a lightning pace--new individual account openings on April 30 alone exceeded 1 million, and total new individual account openings in April exceeded the sum of [those opened in] 2005 and 2006," said Goldman Sachs economist Hong Liang in a separate research report Thursday. "As a result, about 17% of the total existing accounts were opened just in the past 4 months."]]> Sat, 19 May 2007 08:44:00 -0400
The participation of domestic retail investors in the Chinese equity market has gone through the roof. The total number of domestic individual equity accounts was 94 million, or over 7% of population, as of April 30, according to Goldman Sachs. In contrast, only 5% of the population had equity accounts in 2001.

"Moreover, new account opening is accelerating at a lightning pace--new individual account openings on April 30 alone exceeded 1 million, and total new individual account openings in April exceeded the sum of [those opened in] 2005 and 2006," said Goldman Sachs economist Hong Liang in a separate research report Thursday. "As a result, about 17% of the total existing accounts were opened just in the past 4 months."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/35470-the-current-rally-should-continue-until-retail-investors-are-sucked-in?source=feed#comment-86553 86553
www.marketwatch.com/ne...
>]]> Sat, 19 May 2007 08:38:15 -0400
www.marketwatch.com/ne...
>]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/34416-a-dow-14-000-melt-up-would-not-surprise-us?source=feed#comment-85417 85417
Wow. Silly me I guess. I enjoy reading Barry's "chit-chat". It's the "bla-bla-bla" at the bottom that I usually find to be bore.]]> Thu, 03 May 2007 18:28:41 -0400
Wow. Silly me I guess. I enjoy reading Barry's "chit-chat". It's the "bla-bla-bla" at the bottom that I usually find to be bore.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/30094-housing-and-subprime-enough-already-this-was-no-surprise?source=feed#comment-84319 84319
.... significantly less than 597k.]]> Sun, 15 Apr 2007 15:55:39 -0400
.... significantly less than 597k.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/30094-housing-and-subprime-enough-already-this-was-no-surprise?source=feed#comment-84318 84318
RE: "Recent Buys For Legg Mason Value Trust: Homebuilder Centex (CTX): 597,000 shares (cost: $28.4 million); total position now 6.1 million shares."

Better double check the data on this. The report on Miller's portfolio activity here on SA (seekingalpha.com/artic...) and elsewhere is very missleading. What are characterized as 4th Q and "recent" transactions are in fact fiscal ytd transactions for the fund (FY beginning 4/1/06). Many of listed transactions did not occur in the 4th Q. In the specific case of CTX, the fund did make a purchase in the 4th Q but it was only for 100,000 shrs. The other 497,000 were purchased back in the 2nd Q 06.

This may not change your conclusions but 100k is ]]> Sun, 15 Apr 2007 15:53:17 -0400
RE: "Recent Buys For Legg Mason Value Trust: Homebuilder Centex (CTX): 597,000 shares (cost: $28.4 million); total position now 6.1 million shares."

Better double check the data on this. The report on Miller's portfolio activity here on SA (seekingalpha.com/artic...) and elsewhere is very missleading. What are characterized as 4th Q and "recent" transactions are in fact fiscal ytd transactions for the fund (FY beginning 4/1/06). Many of listed transactions did not occur in the 4th Q. In the specific case of CTX, the fund did make a purchase in the 4th Q but it was only for 100,000 shrs. The other 497,000 were purchased back in the 2nd Q 06.

This may not change your conclusions but 100k is ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/32337-stock-ideas-from-friday-s-ppi-report-del-monte-fed-ex-dow-chemical-curtiss-wright-computers-and-semis?source=feed#comment-84314 84314
Amzon, trading at ttm pe >90, PEG ~3, also comes to mind. Everything they sell comes in a corrugated box.

I have a short position in AMZN.]]> Sun, 15 Apr 2007 14:06:36 -0400
Amzon, trading at ttm pe >90, PEG ~3, also comes to mind. Everything they sell comes in a corrugated box.

I have a short position in AMZN.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/29690-legg-mason-s-bill-miller-buys-sells-portfolio?source=feed#comment-84244 84244 AMZN): 256,000 shares (cost: $6.7 million); ..."

I guess I'm missing something here. If I do the math on this (i.e. $6,700,000 / 256,000) I come up with an average purchase price of $26.17/share. This is a real good trick considering that the stock was never less than $30 in the 4th quarter.

What gives?]]> Fri, 13 Apr 2007 18:05:28 -0400 AMZN): 256,000 shares (cost: $6.7 million); ..."

I guess I'm missing something here. If I do the math on this (i.e. $6,700,000 / 256,000) I come up with an average purchase price of $26.17/share. This is a real good trick considering that the stock was never less than $30 in the 4th quarter.

What gives?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/24292-john-hussman-overbought-overbullish-climate-leaves-no-room-to-get-out?source=feed#comment-80153 80153
Not out, but standing close to the exit.]]> Tue, 16 Jan 2007 20:21:13 -0500
Not out, but standing close to the exit.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/24292-john-hussman-overbought-overbullish-climate-leaves-no-room-to-get-out?source=feed#comment-80140 80140
Overvalued - Consensus is that earnings growth going forward is slowing.

Overbought - It's been an unusually long time since there has been any kind of significant correction in this bull run.

Overbullish - Vix hit and remains near >10 year lows.

Yield Pressure - There's that nasty, persistent inverted yield curve.

Of course none of this proves anything about what the market will do going forward. But still, it's interesting to see what's happened before under similar market conditions.]]> Tue, 16 Jan 2007 17:42:00 -0500
Overvalued - Consensus is that earnings growth going forward is slowing.

Overbought - It's been an unusually long time since there has been any kind of significant correction in this bull run.

Overbullish - Vix hit and remains near >10 year lows.

Yield Pressure - There's that nasty, persistent inverted yield curve.

Of course none of this proves anything about what the market will do going forward. But still, it's interesting to see what's happened before under similar market conditions.]]>