Mowog

Japan to the U.S.: 'We Don't Want to Exclude You, But...'

The US should quit providing international police services, unless it is paid for them. Close all bases in Europe, Korea, and Japan: all can choose to protect themselves or not.

I earn in yen. I appreciate the appreciation against the USD, but I was here when it hit ¥88. It'll fall again: massive national debt, overpriced yen, a new government promoting 0bamunism/Bushism tax cuts and increased spending, horrid demographics, few resources (other than water).

Anyone who has lived in Japan knows that few members of the young generation some here expect to invade Asia will do so. The JSDF is a dirty word in many places. Plenty of elderly are still around to denounce war and remind descendants of the postwar hardships, and the Japanese version of Western flower children dominate positions of power and impotence (academia).

Why the U.S. Dollar Drop Might Be Significant

Jayminho,

Thank you for your longer version of "Don't Believe the Hype," which I say as a patriotic member of a currently faltering country.

On the fall of the Spanish Empire, someone once summed it up as something like "Everybody knew what was wrong (gov't spending!), but nobody would do what was needed to stop it (I'll lose my job/votes/freebies!)." Perhaps America's time has come, but I don't see any ready replacement for gross economic power, although China seems to be doing its best; my question is whether its best is good enough with the manifold problems China faces (and I hope the Chinese _people_ overcome them all).

Is the U.S. Dollar Finished?

I earn and save in yen but invest in US stocks and, increasingly, international bonds. For me, a weak dollar is a plus and I look forward to its continued slide. I'm thinking of buying a home in the US, since the government's CRA has made them so cheap, but that probably doesn't apply much to rural areas.

China and Japan (remember that country?) do own much US debt. While the current US regime might want to continue expanding government to control ever more of its people's lives (and those who depend on it to stay alive are very loyal voters), at some point its drive to suicide begins to undermine shaky foundations in Japan (massive debt, horrid demographics, and an 0bamesque regime rolled into power on the Change™ mantra already promising industry-suffocating CO2 mandates), China (dubious figures, bad demographics), South Korea (demographics, potential DPRK collapse), and the EU (debt and demographics).

The dollar might become the new yen, but I don't see a credible replacement among developed countries with too few children to sustain Ponzi social systems, massive debts, and (I'm guessing) little personal savings (Why bother? The government will take care of me!).

Spain Crumbles

I wonder how this will affect the flow of illegal immigrants into Spain. I expect greater restrictions and tougher policies on immigrants. Perhaps there will appear more Spaniards willing to do jobs they once were not willing to do (but were willing to pay a Moroccan to do).

Preview from Europe: Another Bear Market Bounce, Or Bottoming?

It's not just Sony laying people off in Japan. When hired as a proper full-time employee (seishain), you've basically got a job for life. However, there's been a trend toward contractual and part-time work to lower labor costs. Japan's fiscal year ends 31 March and many contractual and part-time workers have been notified that means they'll be out of work and, in some cases, out of corporate housing; those receiving housing supplements (very common in Japanese paychecks) are increasingly not finding them. Job promises made late last year are increasingly being revoked. Nissan has said it will go to 0% part-time and contractual. It will not be the only firm to do so.

Will We Enter a 'Lost Decade' Like the Japanese?

There were and probably still are big zombies, but I think it's more a case of a large number of mini-zombies, like tiny bars that can seat only 8 people, but only ever get 3 at best, in provincial entertainment districts and used clothing stores. I spent a year at the intersection of Japanese local government and business in a provincial capital. Lots of small businesses staying open because the banks are too scared to call in their loans and you can scrape by at 0.01% interest.

Don't Expect the Dollar to Repeat Its 2008 Performance

A relative in a senior position at a big Japanese electronics firm says they expect sales to continue declining until late 2009. I'm glad I have lots of yen now, but Japanese demographics and national debt are long-term disasters waiting to happen.

If Americans quit being "conspicuous consumers," Europe, Australia, and Canada will not likely pick up the slack. Export-based economies like China, Korea, and Japan will thus continue to suffer, as will the countries to which they've offshored low-skilled factories; e.g., Vietnam.

As for the Palestinians, no other Arabs want them; the Egyptians recently shot at them, too. The Palis are useful to rage against Israel and distract Arabs' attention from domestic problems. Do you recall the productive hi-tech hydroponic gardens the Israeli settlers left, the gardens the Palis promptly looted and turned back into useless desert? Palis are the UN's longest-term welfare recipients, with almost predictable results.

10 Stupid Moves That Created This Mess

@CautiousInvestor
In my hometown, once-nice condo complexes are undergoing change. Repossessed or still-owned, they're increasingly being rented to Section 8 subsidized renters: better a guaranteed monthly payment than infrequent ones or even months of non-payment. Condos and houses are being bought by HUD, about the only buyer in town, which brings professional dole recipients into workers' areas. In all these cases, the crime and decay associated with government housing is metastasizing into previously normal communities. Thanks, Uncle Sam.

Is Japan Heading Towards an Economic Earthquake?

Japan has a national health system running on debt fumes and a national pension scheme (credits of which can be exchanged with SS's, for US expatriates here) running on the fantasy fumes of children that aren't being born in a nation that will not allow mass immigration. The government is deep in debt and towns are closing hospitals, declaring bankruptcy, and turning off lights during working hours to save money. Those government pensions aren't cutting it and crime among the elderly, especially shoplifting, is increasing. Recently a woman in her 70s stabbed a stranger solely because she knew she'd be fed, clothed, and taken care of in prison. The savings rate is dropping among the young, credit card are taking off (finally!), and "working poor" is a hot media topic. But it's still physically safe. That's Japan today. Tomorrow?

Yen Strength Will Continue

I was in Japan the last time $1=¥88. The "experts" were calling ¥70 and some fool on CNN even postulated ¥50. It didn't take long to go back to ¥105. Not so many years ago it was nearly ¥135 and Japan was supposed to implode. It hasn't and I'm still here, back at ¥88-90.

It's like deja vu all over again.

Ten 'Good News' Charts on U.S. Economy

The FabiusMaximus blog begs to differ, but that's one voice among many.

There is No Household Debt Crisis

Maybe. I might even buy that households aren't too bad off, but governments? Was it Vallejo, CA, that declared bankruptcy and whose mayor is getting questions from others planning to do the same because of debt? How about NY, CA, and MI (and other states as well), let alone the US government? That's far more worrisome to me.

Japan: Industrial Production Slumps; Outright Deflation Draws Closer

I work in Japan and am paid in yen; I've received a small pay cut and my year-end bonus has decreased. Some firms are ending the once-standard housing subsidy for employees. Suzuki has announced it will go to 0% part-time workers. NHK reported very recently about the numbers of Brazilian-Japanese (the largest second-generation emgirant returnee population), who do low-pay factory and service jobs on contract (not the normal "tenured" hire), that are receiving pay-cuts, not being renewed, and thus buying one-way tickets back to Brazil.

The number of vacant residential properties has been increasing. NHK has reported about a net cafe chain in Saitama Pref. that charges ¥500/night for a private room with a fast connection; showers extra. Long-term rates are available and you can even have your residency record (critical for legit employment) moved to the net cafe.

Considering the number of elderly in Japan who live on fixed-income government pensions in rural areas, and who are disproportionately empowered at the voting booth, I think Krugman's "targeted inflation" will not happen: it would be political suicide.

China Is Looking Fragile

Chinese agricultural exports to Japan are probably going to face increased difficulties entering Japan. In addition to the melamine fiasco, there have been numerous cases on Japanese TV of Chinese foods with illegally high levels of X, Y, or Z. There's also been a rash of incidents of people falsely labeling Chinese imports (of eels, for one) as domestic to profit on the price difference. Then there is the mixing of Chinese foods (e.g., shellfish) with domestic to sell as "100% Japanese." Then again, Japan probably needs China as a market more than China needs Japan.

Honestly, I wish China well but there is apparently much internal unrest that is being successfully kept out of the press; I expect it will only get worse when illegal internal immigrants return to poor inland villages. Communist regimes produce dubious figures. Throw in the Japan-style demographics and preference (and cheap medical tech) for male children. China will need to make some massive cash outlays for pensions and healthcare.

A recent article (in the NYT, I think) on how young Chinese haven't been saving because, like once upon a time on Wall Street, ever more money was just around the corner to pay today's bills.

It's 1974 for the U.S., but 1929 for China

An interesting and sensible article. I read about intensifying troubles in China, and some factory closures have made Japanese news. Apparently the Chinese government has done a good job on keeping the news quiet, but the poor and increasingly unemployed are reportedly increasingly getting restless and revolting in places.