Mowog's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/266970/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/161815-japan-to-the-u-s-we-don-t-want-to-exclude-you-but?source=feed#comment-682438 682438
I earn in yen. I appreciate the appreciation against the USD, but I was here when it hit ¥88. It'll fall again: massive national debt, overpriced yen, a new government promoting 0bamunism/Bushism tax cuts and increased spending, horrid demographics, few resources (other than water).

Anyone who has lived in Japan knows that few members of the young generation some here expect to invade Asia will do so. The JSDF is a dirty word in many places. Plenty of elderly are still around to denounce war and remind descendants of the postwar hardships, and the Japanese version of Western flower children dominate positions of power and impotence (academia).]]> Fri, 18 Sep 2009 10:40:25 -0400
I earn in yen. I appreciate the appreciation against the USD, but I was here when it hit ¥88. It'll fall again: massive national debt, overpriced yen, a new government promoting 0bamunism/Bushism tax cuts and increased spending, horrid demographics, few resources (other than water).

Anyone who has lived in Japan knows that few members of the young generation some here expect to invade Asia will do so. The JSDF is a dirty word in many places. Plenty of elderly are still around to denounce war and remind descendants of the postwar hardships, and the Japanese version of Western flower children dominate positions of power and impotence (academia).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160400-why-the-u-s-dollar-drop-might-be-significant?source=feed#comment-669845 669845
Thank you for your longer version of "Don't Believe the Hype," which I say as a patriotic member of a currently faltering country.

On the fall of the Spanish Empire, someone once summed it up as something like "Everybody knew what was wrong (gov't spending!), but nobody would do what was needed to stop it (I'll lose my job/votes/freebies!)." Perhaps America's time has come, but I don't see any ready replacement for gross economic power, although China seems to be doing its best; my question is whether its best is good enough with the manifold problems China faces (and I hope the Chinese _people_ overcome them all).]]> Thu, 10 Sep 2009 03:49:07 -0400
Thank you for your longer version of "Don't Believe the Hype," which I say as a patriotic member of a currently faltering country.

On the fall of the Spanish Empire, someone once summed it up as something like "Everybody knew what was wrong (gov't spending!), but nobody would do what was needed to stop it (I'll lose my job/votes/freebies!)." Perhaps America's time has come, but I don't see any ready replacement for gross economic power, although China seems to be doing its best; my question is whether its best is good enough with the manifold problems China faces (and I hope the Chinese _people_ overcome them all).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160456-is-the-u-s-dollar-finished?source=feed#comment-669838 669838
China and Japan (remember that country?) do own much US debt. While the current US regime might want to continue expanding government to control ever more of its people's lives (and those who depend on it to stay alive are very loyal voters), at some point its drive to suicide begins to undermine shaky foundations in Japan (massive debt, horrid demographics, and an 0bamesque regime rolled into power on the Change™ mantra already promising industry-suffocating CO2 mandates), China (dubious figures, bad demographics), South Korea (demographics, potential DPRK collapse), and the EU (debt and demographics).

The dollar might become the new yen, but I don't see a credible replacement among developed countries with too few children to sustain Ponzi social systems, massive debts, and (I'm guessing) little personal savings (Why bother? The government will take care of me!).]]> Thu, 10 Sep 2009 03:35:28 -0400
China and Japan (remember that country?) do own much US debt. While the current US regime might want to continue expanding government to control ever more of its people's lives (and those who depend on it to stay alive are very loyal voters), at some point its drive to suicide begins to undermine shaky foundations in Japan (massive debt, horrid demographics, and an 0bamesque regime rolled into power on the Change™ mantra already promising industry-suffocating CO2 mandates), China (dubious figures, bad demographics), South Korea (demographics, potential DPRK collapse), and the EU (debt and demographics).

The dollar might become the new yen, but I don't see a credible replacement among developed countries with too few children to sustain Ponzi social systems, massive debts, and (I'm guessing) little personal savings (Why bother? The government will take care of me!).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158131-spain-crumbles?source=feed#comment-647081 647081 Wed, 26 Aug 2009 09:55:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115886-preview-from-europe-another-bear-market-bounce-or-bottoming?source=feed#comment-362822 362822 Thu, 22 Jan 2009 08:44:19 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115833-will-we-enter-a-lost-decade-like-the-japanese?source=feed#comment-362805 362805 Thu, 22 Jan 2009 08:29:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112864-don-t-expect-the-dollar-to-repeat-its-2008-performance?source=feed#comment-343848 343848
If Americans quit being "conspicuous consumers," Europe, Australia, and Canada will not likely pick up the slack. Export-based economies like China, Korea, and Japan will thus continue to suffer, as will the countries to which they've offshored low-skilled factories; e.g., Vietnam.

As for the Palestinians, no other Arabs want them; the Egyptians recently shot at them, too. The Palis are useful to rage against Israel and distract Arabs' attention from domestic problems. Do you recall the productive hi-tech hydroponic gardens the Israeli settlers left, the gardens the Palis promptly looted and turned back into useless desert? Palis are the UN's longest-term welfare recipients, with almost predictable results.]]> Thu, 01 Jan 2009 22:39:21 -0500
If Americans quit being "conspicuous consumers," Europe, Australia, and Canada will not likely pick up the slack. Export-based economies like China, Korea, and Japan will thus continue to suffer, as will the countries to which they've offshored low-skilled factories; e.g., Vietnam.

As for the Palestinians, no other Arabs want them; the Egyptians recently shot at them, too. The Palis are useful to rage against Israel and distract Arabs' attention from domestic problems. Do you recall the productive hi-tech hydroponic gardens the Israeli settlers left, the gardens the Palis promptly looted and turned back into useless desert? Palis are the UN's longest-term welfare recipients, with almost predictable results.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112876-10-stupid-moves-that-created-this-mess?source=feed#comment-343838 343838 In my hometown, once-nice condo complexes are undergoing change. Repossessed or still-owned, they're increasingly being rented to Section 8 subsidized renters: better a guaranteed monthly payment than infrequent ones or even months of non-payment. Condos and houses are being bought by HUD, about the only buyer in town, which brings professional dole recipients into workers' areas. In all these cases, the crime and decay associated with government housing is metastasizing into previously normal communities. Thanks, Uncle Sam.]]> Thu, 01 Jan 2009 22:18:00 -0500 In my hometown, once-nice condo complexes are undergoing change. Repossessed or still-owned, they're increasingly being rented to Section 8 subsidized renters: better a guaranteed monthly payment than infrequent ones or even months of non-payment. Condos and houses are being bought by HUD, about the only buyer in town, which brings professional dole recipients into workers' areas. In all these cases, the crime and decay associated with government housing is metastasizing into previously normal communities. Thanks, Uncle Sam.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112451-is-japan-heading-towards-an-economic-earthquake?source=feed#comment-341237 341237 Tue, 30 Dec 2008 08:24:12 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112388-yen-strength-will-continue?source=feed#comment-341228 341228
It's like deja vu all over again.]]> Tue, 30 Dec 2008 08:14:12 -0500
It's like deja vu all over again.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112552-ten-good-news-charts-on-u-s-economy?source=feed#comment-341214 341214 Tue, 30 Dec 2008 08:03:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112561-there-is-no-household-debt-crisis?source=feed#comment-341213 341213 Tue, 30 Dec 2008 08:02:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112329-japan-industrial-production-slumps-outright-deflation-draws-closer?source=feed#comment-339590 339590
The number of vacant residential properties has been increasing. NHK has reported about a net cafe chain in Saitama Pref. that charges ¥500/night for a private room with a fast connection; showers extra. Long-term rates are available and you can even have your residency record (critical for legit employment) moved to the net cafe.

Considering the number of elderly in Japan who live on fixed-income government pensions in rural areas, and who are disproportionately empowered at the voting booth, I think Krugman's "targeted inflation" will not happen: it would be political suicide.]]> Sun, 28 Dec 2008 05:07:09 -0500
The number of vacant residential properties has been increasing. NHK has reported about a net cafe chain in Saitama Pref. that charges ¥500/night for a private room with a fast connection; showers extra. Long-term rates are available and you can even have your residency record (critical for legit employment) moved to the net cafe.

Considering the number of elderly in Japan who live on fixed-income government pensions in rural areas, and who are disproportionately empowered at the voting booth, I think Krugman's "targeted inflation" will not happen: it would be political suicide.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112350-china-is-looking-fragile?source=feed#comment-339586 339586
Honestly, I wish China well but there is apparently much internal unrest that is being successfully kept out of the press; I expect it will only get worse when illegal internal immigrants return to poor inland villages. Communist regimes produce dubious figures. Throw in the Japan-style demographics and preference (and cheap medical tech) for male children. China will need to make some massive cash outlays for pensions and healthcare.

A recent article (in the NYT, I think) on how young Chinese haven't been saving because, like once upon a time on Wall Street, ever more money was just around the corner to pay today's bills.]]> Sun, 28 Dec 2008 04:36:04 -0500
Honestly, I wish China well but there is apparently much internal unrest that is being successfully kept out of the press; I expect it will only get worse when illegal internal immigrants return to poor inland villages. Communist regimes produce dubious figures. Throw in the Japan-style demographics and preference (and cheap medical tech) for male children. China will need to make some massive cash outlays for pensions and healthcare.

A recent article (in the NYT, I think) on how young Chinese haven't been saving because, like once upon a time on Wall Street, ever more money was just around the corner to pay today's bills.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109822-it-s-1974-for-the-u-s-but-1929-for-china?source=feed#comment-324490 324490 Tue, 09 Dec 2008 08:58:16 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/109750-obama-s-infrastructure-rally-take-a-swig-of-kool-aid?source=feed#comment-324484 324484 Tue, 09 Dec 2008 08:52:58 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/109699-deflation-is-acid-burning-through-the-economy?source=feed#comment-324481 324481 Tue, 09 Dec 2008 08:48:28 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/109329-michael-moore-s-curious-economics-nationalize-the-car-companies?source=feed#comment-321500 321500 Fri, 05 Dec 2008 08:31:37 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/109188-why-america-won-t-become-like-japan?source=feed#comment-321496 321496
Japan is considering raising the national consumption tax to 9% from the current 5%. National health is going to require people to pay more on visits to doctors and dentists (you pay 30%, the state pays 70%). The national debt is 180% of GDP, the highest of developed nations, according to an earlier SeekingAlpha article. Consumer spending and business outlook are down. Savings rates have, on TV, reportedly begun to fall and credit cards are becoming easy to get. Then there are all the usury companies like Promise lending at 17-21%, legally.

The middle class is aging, simply shrinking demographically. Ever fewer children to replace them. The national population began shrinking earlier this year.

If you visit or live in a Japanese metropolis and work in an international or foreign firm, you see modern, clean, rich. Go visit a provincial capital, rent a car, and drive outside it. Google "Yubari"; there are many more towns just like it.]]> Fri, 05 Dec 2008 08:27:30 -0500
Japan is considering raising the national consumption tax to 9% from the current 5%. National health is going to require people to pay more on visits to doctors and dentists (you pay 30%, the state pays 70%). The national debt is 180% of GDP, the highest of developed nations, according to an earlier SeekingAlpha article. Consumer spending and business outlook are down. Savings rates have, on TV, reportedly begun to fall and credit cards are becoming easy to get. Then there are all the usury companies like Promise lending at 17-21%, legally.

The middle class is aging, simply shrinking demographically. Ever fewer children to replace them. The national population began shrinking earlier this year.

If you visit or live in a Japanese metropolis and work in an international or foreign firm, you see modern, clean, rich. Go visit a provincial capital, rent a car, and drive outside it. Google "Yubari"; there are many more towns just like it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109275-obama-s-stimulus-package-is-morphing-into-a-monster?source=feed#comment-321480 321480 Fri, 05 Dec 2008 08:12:05 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108861-starbucks-not-doing-enough-to-heal-deutsche-bank?source=feed#comment-320414 320414 Wed, 03 Dec 2008 22:55:37 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108796-palm-issues-warning-for-q2-is-the-end-near?source=feed#comment-320412 320412 Wed, 03 Dec 2008 22:52:10 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108807-american-gloom-is-not-the-gloomiest?source=feed#comment-320411 320411 Wed, 03 Dec 2008 22:48:00 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108866-economies-improve-in-three-states-how-can-we-copy-them?source=feed#comment-320408 320408 Wed, 03 Dec 2008 22:42:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108929-our-growing-inactive-population-demographics-and-the-economy?source=feed#comment-320404 320404
Live cheap, save, and try to get a side business going. You're unlikely to age discriminate against yourself.]]> Wed, 03 Dec 2008 22:28:27 -0500
Live cheap, save, and try to get a side business going. You're unlikely to age discriminate against yourself.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108542-will-this-be-japan-s-longest-running-recession?source=feed#comment-318835 318835 Tue, 02 Dec 2008 10:20:23 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108655-the-yen-is-due-for-a-fall?source=feed#comment-318830 318830
It's nice to be holding yen now, but I don't know for how much longer. There are two online forex firms advertizing heavily on TV on the Tokyo area. People are lining up at banks--it's been on national news--to buy apparently cheap forex in banks in expectation of a profitable reversal later.]]> Tue, 02 Dec 2008 10:15:54 -0500
It's nice to be holding yen now, but I don't know for how much longer. There are two online forex firms advertizing heavily on TV on the Tokyo area. People are lining up at banks--it's been on national news--to buy apparently cheap forex in banks in expectation of a profitable reversal later.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108396-no-real-estate-bubble-in-central-u-s?source=feed#comment-317416 317416 Sun, 30 Nov 2008 08:58:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108387-the-perfect-storm-semi-annual-economic-review?source=feed#comment-317404 317404 Sun, 30 Nov 2008 08:39:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108386-rubin-s-teflon-finally-wears-off?source=feed#comment-317379 317379 Sun, 30 Nov 2008 08:13:30 -0500