Mowog

It's 1974 for the U.S., but 1929 for China

An interesting and sensible article. I read about intensifying troubles in China, and some factory closures have made Japanese news. Apparently the Chinese government has done a good job on keeping the news quiet, but the poor and increasingly unemployed are reportedly increasingly getting restless and revolting in places.

Why America Won't Become Like Japan

Good article.

Japan is considering raising the national consumption tax to 9% from the current 5%. National health is going to require people to pay more on visits to doctors and dentists (you pay 30%, the state pays 70%). The national debt is 180% of GDP, the highest of developed nations, according to an earlier SeekingAlpha article. Consumer spending and business outlook are down. Savings rates have, on TV, reportedly begun to fall and credit cards are becoming easy to get. Then there are all the usury companies like Promise lending at 17-21%, legally.

The middle class is aging, simply shrinking demographically. Ever fewer children to replace them. The national population began shrinking earlier this year.

If you visit or live in a Japanese metropolis and work in an international or foreign firm, you see modern, clean, rich. Go visit a provincial capital, rent a car, and drive outside it. Google "Yubari"; there are many more towns just like it.

The Perfect Storm: Semi-Annual Economic Review

As someone working in Japan and being paid in yen, I am currently pleased with the yen's strength, but I fear your long-term view of Japan is correct. I don't know how much longer its decline can, however, remain graceful. Increasing numbers of the elderly are turning to shoplifting, and a few have committed violent acts of crime to be imprisoned where they will be fed and taken care of for free.

What Can the U.S. Learn from Japan?

One problem here in Japan is banks often won't foreclose. Rather than account their losses, they let borrowers continue to stall on repayment. Some Japanese argue that the aging society is also due to a lack of borrowing: Young people, like baby boomers, are willing to take risks; the elderly are not. Japan has a serious shortage of young people.

The Stock Market Is Not the U.S. Economy

"Where shills come on and call yet another "bottom" after calling 10 bottoms already from DOW 14K 13K 12K 11K 10K 9K 8K..." Reminds me of Paul Krugman calling the recession in 2001...2007--every Bush year. As long as you keep repeating "3 o'clock," you'll be right twice a day.

The MotleyFool is optimistic on certain stocks, but that's them. Should this market continue, my DRIP stocks will be able to buy much more of themselves. A small "yay" to that.

CNBC Europe: U.S. May Lose Its AAA Rating

The downgrade has been voiced in Japan, but people here are happily buying dollars at exchange rates not seen for 13 years or so. Correctly or not, they expect a dollar rebound. There are at least two companies devoted to online forex trading running ads on TV here.

Japan is not very healthy financially, either. It has plenty of debt, a shrinking and aging population, and a stagnant economy. China has ugly demographics as well, not to mention increasing internal pressures.

Uncle Sam will turn the printing press on. Inflation is coming. Some states have begun trimming government employees. It's time for the Fed to do the same and end terrible entitlements like Section 8.

Signs of an Economic Bottoming Process

ElisaS,
I'd worry because that small portion taken as taxes often becomes bigger and, considering the national debt, government doesn't use the money wisely. It gets in the way and makes you pay for it.

I read some governor out West had established a "voluntary tax" fund where people who didn't feel they were paying their fair share could absolve themselves of guilt and funds. I think it's raked in $0.

So We Find a Bottom - Then What?

Once I'm earning $6K annually in dividends and interest, I'll consider moving to Thailand, marrying a local, and having children as my Social Security system. That assumes, of course, that Comrade Obama, his economic advisor Franklin Raines (who got a golden parachute for sinking Fannie Mae), and two compliant houses of Congress don't inflate my USD into nothing.

What a Look Back at the Japanese Market Tells Us

The topic of mass immigration has been broached by some well-known politicians here in Japan. The reality of no children but near immortality is beginning to register in everyone's mind. Japanese emigrants (and their offspring) are allowed back, but it seems many of them (mostly Brazilian-Japanese) prefer to stockpile cash here then leave. I imagine more immigration will happen, but birth rates might start to increase as the pension system falters. Note that Japanese-foreign couples are more fecund, which might bring increasing acceptance for immigration as more half-Japanese (gads, that sounds so crass) are born and raised.