Mowog

Japan to the U.S.: 'We Don't Want to Exclude You, But...'

The US should quit providing international police services, unless it is paid for them. Close all bases in Europe, Korea, and Japan: all can choose to protect themselves or not.

I earn in yen. I appreciate the appreciation against the USD, but I was here when it hit ¥88. It'll fall again: massive national debt, overpriced yen, a new government promoting 0bamunism/Bushism tax cuts and increased spending, horrid demographics, few resources (other than water).

Anyone who has lived in Japan knows that few members of the young generation some here expect to invade Asia will do so. The JSDF is a dirty word in many places. Plenty of elderly are still around to denounce war and remind descendants of the postwar hardships, and the Japanese version of Western flower children dominate positions of power and impotence (academia).

Is Japan Heading Towards an Economic Earthquake?

Japan has a national health system running on debt fumes and a national pension scheme (credits of which can be exchanged with SS's, for US expatriates here) running on the fantasy fumes of children that aren't being born in a nation that will not allow mass immigration. The government is deep in debt and towns are closing hospitals, declaring bankruptcy, and turning off lights during working hours to save money. Those government pensions aren't cutting it and crime among the elderly, especially shoplifting, is increasing. Recently a woman in her 70s stabbed a stranger solely because she knew she'd be fed, clothed, and taken care of in prison. The savings rate is dropping among the young, credit card are taking off (finally!), and "working poor" is a hot media topic. But it's still physically safe. That's Japan today. Tomorrow?

Japan: Industrial Production Slumps; Outright Deflation Draws Closer

I work in Japan and am paid in yen; I've received a small pay cut and my year-end bonus has decreased. Some firms are ending the once-standard housing subsidy for employees. Suzuki has announced it will go to 0% part-time workers. NHK reported very recently about the numbers of Brazilian-Japanese (the largest second-generation emgirant returnee population), who do low-pay factory and service jobs on contract (not the normal "tenured" hire), that are receiving pay-cuts, not being renewed, and thus buying one-way tickets back to Brazil.

The number of vacant residential properties has been increasing. NHK has reported about a net cafe chain in Saitama Pref. that charges ¥500/night for a private room with a fast connection; showers extra. Long-term rates are available and you can even have your residency record (critical for legit employment) moved to the net cafe.

Considering the number of elderly in Japan who live on fixed-income government pensions in rural areas, and who are disproportionately empowered at the voting booth, I think Krugman's "targeted inflation" will not happen: it would be political suicide.

Will This Be Japan's Longest Running Recession?

Yes, it is. It's also been ¥170 (or so) to ride the Sapporo subway since 1994. Prices that don't go up or down can be nice.

The Yen Is Due for a Fall

Japan Post has been "privatized," like all the national universities here. Yet every university, public and private still sucks in Ministry of Ed funds; nothing seems ever to be truly completely privatized.

It's nice to be holding yen now, but I don't know for how much longer. There are two online forex firms advertizing heavily on TV on the Tokyo area. People are lining up at banks--it's been on national news--to buy apparently cheap forex in banks in expectation of a profitable reversal later.

The Perfect Storm: Semi-Annual Economic Review

As someone working in Japan and being paid in yen, I am currently pleased with the yen's strength, but I fear your long-term view of Japan is correct. I don't know how much longer its decline can, however, remain graceful. Increasing numbers of the elderly are turning to shoplifting, and a few have committed violent acts of crime to be imprisoned where they will be fed and taken care of for free.

What a Look Back at the Japanese Market Tells Us

The topic of mass immigration has been broached by some well-known politicians here in Japan. The reality of no children but near immortality is beginning to register in everyone's mind. Japanese emigrants (and their offspring) are allowed back, but it seems many of them (mostly Brazilian-Japanese) prefer to stockpile cash here then leave. I imagine more immigration will happen, but birth rates might start to increase as the pension system falters. Note that Japanese-foreign couples are more fecund, which might bring increasing acceptance for immigration as more half-Japanese (gads, that sounds so crass) are born and raised.