Mowog

Don't Expect the Dollar to Repeat Its 2008 Performance

A relative in a senior position at a big Japanese electronics firm says they expect sales to continue declining until late 2009. I'm glad I have lots of yen now, but Japanese demographics and national debt are long-term disasters waiting to happen.

If Americans quit being "conspicuous consumers," Europe, Australia, and Canada will not likely pick up the slack. Export-based economies like China, Korea, and Japan will thus continue to suffer, as will the countries to which they've offshored low-skilled factories; e.g., Vietnam.

As for the Palestinians, no other Arabs want them; the Egyptians recently shot at them, too. The Palis are useful to rage against Israel and distract Arabs' attention from domestic problems. Do you recall the productive hi-tech hydroponic gardens the Israeli settlers left, the gardens the Palis promptly looted and turned back into useless desert? Palis are the UN's longest-term welfare recipients, with almost predictable results.

The Perfect Storm: Semi-Annual Economic Review

As someone working in Japan and being paid in yen, I am currently pleased with the yen's strength, but I fear your long-term view of Japan is correct. I don't know how much longer its decline can, however, remain graceful. Increasing numbers of the elderly are turning to shoplifting, and a few have committed violent acts of crime to be imprisoned where they will be fed and taken care of for free.