Mowog

Is Japan Heading Towards an Economic Earthquake?

Japan has a national health system running on debt fumes and a national pension scheme (credits of which can be exchanged with SS's, for US expatriates here) running on the fantasy fumes of children that aren't being born in a nation that will not allow mass immigration. The government is deep in debt and towns are closing hospitals, declaring bankruptcy, and turning off lights during working hours to save money. Those government pensions aren't cutting it and crime among the elderly, especially shoplifting, is increasing. Recently a woman in her 70s stabbed a stranger solely because she knew she'd be fed, clothed, and taken care of in prison. The savings rate is dropping among the young, credit card are taking off (finally!), and "working poor" is a hot media topic. But it's still physically safe. That's Japan today. Tomorrow?

Yen Strength Will Continue

I was in Japan the last time $1=¥88. The "experts" were calling ¥70 and some fool on CNN even postulated ¥50. It didn't take long to go back to ¥105. Not so many years ago it was nearly ¥135 and Japan was supposed to implode. It hasn't and I'm still here, back at ¥88-90.

It's like deja vu all over again.

The Yen Is Due for a Fall

Japan Post has been "privatized," like all the national universities here. Yet every university, public and private still sucks in Ministry of Ed funds; nothing seems ever to be truly completely privatized.

It's nice to be holding yen now, but I don't know for how much longer. There are two online forex firms advertizing heavily on TV on the Tokyo area. People are lining up at banks--it's been on national news--to buy apparently cheap forex in banks in expectation of a profitable reversal later.

Fears of Global Recession Support Long Exposure to the Yen

Here in Japan, people are queueing to convert yen into other currencies to convert back later. They assume this is a short-term thing. Some of us recall back in '94 or '95 when it went to $1=¥88. "Experts" on CNN assured us it was going to ¥50. Ha.