investment weenie

Hedge Fund Chicken and Egg Problem

The correct question should not frame this as a chicken or egg problem, but rather an effort to understand the fulcrum in a simple machine. What is the appropriate leverage and how will this impact de-leveraging...the size of the asset being levered versus the capital weight applied requires the fulcrum to be adjusted. If we assuming today's risk appetite is unchanged from last year, we can approximate the leverage pivot given asset value and capital deployed. Since we know risk appetite is less, and we know asset values have deflated, we can back into an approximation and forecast redemption levels.

Why the Dollar Has Rallied During Current Crisis

Great capture & indentity of risk factors - question turns to timing. It seems that the inflationary pressures are balanced against capitalistic -expectations.. the more the US gov't intervention feels like an intrusion, the less effective the hedge will be..

Obama's Green Obsession: More Harm Than Good?

I am happy people are believing the green story - US ends up with the last drop of oil on planet, the carbon tax will allow emerging markets their turn at the feeding trough, the cap & lend program give the people the opportunity to bank & securitize emissions, trade carbon delivery swaps and ultimately reward the polluter that can get the most marginal utility, given revenue and cost...

Oh, btw, I am not really worried about the environmental impact related to all the governments of the world sucking energy out of the wind, sun and oceans...

5 Reasons Why the $700B Bailout Could Translate to $250 Oil

you miss the point entirely, it is a quality of crude oil, not a quantity of crude oil - sweet oil, environmental clamp down and the overwhelming need for investment in alternative energy.. that being said, I'm not convinced the bailout does much for demand.. as a consumer, I isolate a problem spender, tourniquet it - the last thing I want to do is go shopping again.

Can Paulson Add $700B Worth of Value to the Mortgage Market?

...the liquidity will be provided at basement prices, after purchased & owned, the congress will change laws impacting the assets (tax, downpayments on distressed assets, etc...) and viola, gov't wins, aka the taxpayer wins... a really big 800 pound gorilla is about to go into market..