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User 26717943

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  • My Bet Is That Microsoft Will Outperform Apple In 2015 [View article]
    Same here SMJTRUST. I bought Apple at $480 and it went down. So, I got more at $435 and it went down. So, I bought more at just under $400 and it went down. I had 200 shares and was down almost $12,000! But I held them and enjoyed a 7 to 1 split and a $110 price tag ($770 pre-split!) and dividends along the way. I sold a few weeks ago and made $68,000 on the investment over 2 years. MB was a bear on the stock from the beginning.
    Jan 27, 2015. 08:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Bet Is That Microsoft Will Outperform Apple In 2015 [View article]
    @ Eric Dee ... 100% agreement! I've commented many times that MB anti Apple articles are about clicks not Apple. But, here we are commenting. So, I guess we are why he keeps writing them.
    Jan 27, 2015. 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Do Mobile Numbers Come From? [View article]
    MB's failure rate seems accurate but his math is AWFUL. I've read that as many as 18% of iPhone users break their screen in the fist 2 years. But as the author states many of these are still in use. Some are used broken, some are repaired and some are replaced. We have no solid figures for these. MB says there are additional unreported lost/broken iPhones.

    MB's bad math: 600 million iPhones sold with a 15.5% failure rate = 507 million working iPhones not 388 million. Plus, at only a 50% repair rate (just a guess) there are an additional 46 million repaired iPhones. So, we now have an estimated 553 million working iPhones total.

    It is unreasonable for MB to say only 300-350 million of these are active. To get to this number from 553 million he is saying that there are 200-250 million new/used iPhones that are either (1) in inventory or (2) unreported broken/lost iPhones. Crazy.
    Jan 27, 2015. 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Bet Is That Microsoft Will Outperform Apple In 2015 [View article]
    I'm disappointed so many of the comments here are “Apple is better” or “Microsoft is better”. This is an investing site not Consumer Reports. Michael says Microsoft will out preform Apple in 2015; that is what’s at issue.

    On that note, I think the article falls short. Michael is just comparing the laptops. Comparing a single product (and not the iPhone!) doesn’t give me a clear idea of where either company is heading. Microsoft is a big conglomerate with several divisions. Software, hardware, cloud computing. The same is true with Apple.

    The article isn’t about Microsoft and Apple it is about two products. I think he should have titled the article “My bet is the Surface Pro will do better than the MacBook in 2015.”
    Jan 27, 2015. 01:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill: What The West Vela Sale Means [View article]
    @ Bulldog67 ... "Management has stated that they can pay the current dividend well into 2016" ...I recall SDRL management saying this as well.

    Now that they've cut the dividend in 2014 why do you think they cut more quickly? Do you think they misjudged the drop in oil, did they cut the dividend prematurely, do you still have confidence in the management?

    Also, do you see a bottom in SDRL ... or oil stocks in general?
    Dec 1, 2014. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iPhone Surging, iPad Collapsing - Apple May Be Near Its Peak [View article]
    Honestly, I didn't even read the article. What's the point?

    MB May 27, 2014: "Apple Stock Price Likely To Peak Before Long"
    Price then: $89.14 ... today's price: $117.61 ... MB off by 31.94%

    MB May 2014 "I'm betting (Amazon Fire Phone) will sell a few million units and with 40% of the U.S. market today belonging to Apple, a lot of those devices will come at the expense of iPhones." ... 35,000 AFP's sold ... Off by over 98%!

    … But that’s NOT the WORST calculation he's made:

    MB June 9, 2014: "I was wrong. $450 will be a pit stop on the way to less than $300 a share." ... Those numbers adjusted: $64.29 is the pit stop & $42.86 is the destination. Based on the 11/25/2014 Apple close price: Off by 82.9% & 174.4% respectively.

    Seriously, why read the article. It will be filled with POOR STATISTICS, BIASED OPINION and FAULTY LOGIC.
    Nov 25, 2014. 04:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talisman Energy: My Top Stock Pick Right Now [View article]
    I would not count on a triple. I bought in at $10 and sold half at $8 and the rest at $7.50. It's my biggest loss of the year.

    Carl bought when oil prices were $100-110 a barrel; now it trades around $75.

    While TLM is turning around the economics of oil has made this stock a dead cat. An outright sale may get $9-10 a share now; but I doubt it. My best guess is you won't see $10 again until late in 2016. You could buy in now ... or double down ... but I think TLM will take a good amount of time to recover.
    Nov 19, 2014. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q4 Will Show Just How Stagnant Apple Earnings Really Are [View article]
    I've believed for a long time that he writes these articles to garner 'clicks' on his articles rather than actually shorting the stock. He doesn't even say in his disclaimer that he's short. he says "I am short the name." ... I think that just means he doesn't like Apple products.

    Can you imagine? He started shorting at $450 and now the stock trades at over $700 not including dividends & ignoring the stock split ... He's seen a 50-60% decline in any investment he made ...
    Oct 20, 2014. 05:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q4 Will Show Just How Stagnant Apple Earnings Really Are [View article]
    We all know not to take MB seriously at this point right? Sadly, he mixes his dislike of the product (an iPhone is "premium price" but "inferior device.") with a company’s performance.

    Here is the truth: I was so happy with my iPod I bought an iPad. I was so happy with my iPad I bought an iPhone. I was so happy with my iPhone I bought a Mac Book Air. And so on. Apple users are loyal because they are HAPPY. (For the record, many people I know do this with their Android devices.) Love Apple/Hate Apple ... Loyal customers means increased sales.

    I am not sure what premium pricing MB is talking about in the article. The price difference between a Galaxy Note 4 vs my iPhone 6+? NOTHING! ZERO! It’s right there in the article: $299 with contract. Do Android phones not have subsidies? Where is the premium? You can buy cheaper phones for sure ... but they are not at the high end like the Galaxy Note and the iPhone 6/6+.

    I realize MB thinks EPS has been manipulated by stock purchases; but the truth is shareholders (like me) each own a bigger chuck of the company because of less outstanding shares. So, while 2014 earnings will be about the same as 2012 earnings. EPS will be MUCH higher. If you compare 2012 EPS to 2014 EPS… 2014 wins.

    Looking forward we see an Apple Watch, Apple Pay, Christmas, Chinese New Year …. All drivers of short-term and mid-term earnings.
    MB can dislike iPhones and iPads all he wants. The next 6 months look to be winners for Apple stockholders.

    One last thought: MB mentions an increase in iPhone sales of 9 million and a decrease of iPad sales of 8 million. WHAT? He is predicting a 64% drop in sales in the 4th quarter! (2013 iPad sold 14 million units) Ridiculous. I would guess we see a 10-15% drop with sales around 10 million iPads. Both the average selling price and margins are better (a lot better) in a phone. So his comment “the sales gain falls to $2.6 billion” is more like $4.2 billion … and it is even better when looking at the EARNINGS gain.
    Oct 20, 2014. 05:41 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talisman Energy: My Top Stock Pick Right Now [View article]
    Icahn made me a pile of money on Apple; but I've lost it in TLM. I sold at $7.71. I couldn't swallow anymore losses.

    I'd like to get back in after my 30 day wash period ends because I think we'll see a rebound. If it stays low long enough I'll give it another go.
    Oct 15, 2014. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talisman Energy: My Top Stock Pick Right Now [View article]
    Agreed (With Jeb Walport), I've lost money on TLM also; but I take the responsibility for my own purchases. I do not blame the author of an online article.

    I'm in for 3,000 shares at just under $10 a share. If you can't take a few losses get our of the stock market. It took 3-5 years for the company to fall this low; it will take time for it to recovery.
    Sep 17, 2014. 03:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Knows How To Deliver Against Google And Microsoft Into Earnings [View article]
    $177,000,000,000 in profits from 2011-2013 is financial engineering? That's $177 billion in gross profits! 2014 looks to bring another $50 billion.

    Apple was first with a 64-bit smart phone, first with touch ID, first with a kill switch ... Apple has been innovating for years.

    Buying Beats, a deal with IBM, three rumored smart watches, 2 rumored large screen iPhones, iBeacon, iPhone healthkit ...

    Apple has REAL profits, established brand loyalty, new products and new partnerships ... I see little to be disappointed in.
    Jul 16, 2014. 10:57 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Market Share: Slip, Slipping Away [View article]
    @ boisterousbob "There is only one metric to measure a company and it is market share. No other metrics matter. They don't even really exist."

    What about total sales? What about profit? Consider this scenario. I’m using small number but you can add millions if you want to:

    A few years ago the smartphone market was 100 phones. Apple sold 40 of these. They have 40% of market share. Now the smartphone market is 200 phones and Apple sells 70 of these. Their market share is down to only 35% but their sales are up 75%.

    Part two. If Apple can make $250 per phone @ 40 phones that is $10,000. With more competition they can only make $225 @ 70 phones = $5,750. Profits are up 57.5%.

    Apple does one thing well: Maximize profits. In economics we are taught there is a sweet spot where price and sales produce the highest profit. For 7 years Apple has been very close to that sweet spot. As an investor I don’t focus on market share … I focus on profits.

    Blackberry, Sony, HTC, Microsoft … they are fighting each other for low end phones. All of them are breaking even or losing money. Low cost = more sales AND less profits.

    Consider Samsung. They play both sides with low end and high end phones. But the problem they are facing is more sales are gravitating towards the low end. They can’t convince consumers to pay the premium. A Samsung galaxy Ace sells for $120 …the S5 sells for $699. That 5 times the price! A consumer buys the Ace; realizes WHY it is $120 … gets frustrated with Samsung for making crap and buys an iPhone.

    Apple isn’t in the low end. It has a mid-priced phone with the 5C and 8GB models; but nothing they sell is cheap. Some will never own an iPhone (Like Michael) because they balk at the premium. But for those who do buy one; Apple makes a tidy profit. And it is much easier to upsell the better phones for just $100 more.

    It does seem Apple has been a little behind the curve for the last two years. They stuck with their iTunes model when streaming was taking over. They needed a larger phone last year … But, with larger phones only months away, a potential smart watch, entry into phone payments and healthcare I feel Apple is poised to grow profits for the next few years.

    I am LONG Apple; I own shares and I am considering increasing my position in the next month.
    Jul 8, 2014. 11:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Market Share: Slip, Slipping Away [View article]
    My comment has very little to do with market share; but everything to do with Apple & Michael Blair.

    I follow Jon Markman at trader’s advantage. He put EMES (Emerge Energy Services LP) as his top stock in the 2014 challenge. I bought 250 shares @ $44.01 on Jan 3rd. Those shares closed @ $105.80 and have paid $2.13 in dividends. 145% gain in 6 months! Almost $16,000!

    David Einhorn and Carl Icahn pointed me towards Apple in 2013. In the first half of the year I bought 150 shares @ various prices between $395-$500; most below $450. After the spilt I owned 1,050 shares. I sold almost 90% of my stake, 900 shares, @ $92.47. If my math is right, and it is, I made over $26,000 in realized gains and another $2,500+ in dividends. I’m also sitting on $4,000+ in unrealized gains. $33,000 in gains … almost 49%.

    2013 was the most profitable year for me in my life. Because of Apple 2014 is turning out to be the 2nd most profitable. During this whole time you keep barking short Apple. No innovation, no new products, falling market share …

    When I sold my Apple I had about $75,000 to invest. Carl Icahn bought TLM (Talisman Energy Inc.) last year and I saw it dropped about 12%. I got in @ $10.11 just before the ex-dividend date. We’ll see what happens with that in the next year; but I am sure it will be a better investment than shorting Apple.

    I have trouble taking you seriously as an investor Michael; not only because you’re so wrong about Apple; but because you are so adamant about it. If you wrote one article about shorting Apple; then said "oops, I was wrong" that would be different. But you write more articles about Apple than all the other stocks you cover.

    If I had followed your advice about Apple I would be out maybe $20-40,000. Instead in 2 years I’ve made over $75,000 listening to others.

    There are professionals and there’s Michael Blair.
    Jun 30, 2014. 05:04 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Do Now With Apple [View article]
    Great article; Apple is a good long-term investment. I wrote a similar blog myself a few days ago:

    It was actually a rebuttal of those who are misjudged and are short Apple.

    I also think tstreet was right in his comment above.

    I sold my Apple at $93 when the price stated dropping to lock in 1 year gains (at about 45%). I see a technical correction coming. I'm not strong on technical analysis but my best guess is a pullback in the 6-12% range ($84-90 per share). I would consider getting back in and hope for an iPhone 6/iWatch/tax holiday bounce.

    Beyond that I see Apple as a fairly solid long term investment for 5-15% annual returns.
    Jun 13, 2014. 04:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment