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Tadpoles_UK

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  • Geron Is Ripe For A Short Squeeze [View article]
    Turtle Island is starting to sound like Galt's Gulch, but apart from a bunch of rich retired investors, who is going to keep things running there?
    Jul 8, 2015. 12:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron Is Ripe For A Short Squeeze [View article]
    Slick W might be getting old, but I'd bet he still has a few women willing to make him smile.
    Jul 5, 2015. 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron Is Ripe For A Short Squeeze [View article]
    jimmyb - liked your comment about trying to get to the courthouse first. When I worked in south Louisiana, there was one class-action lawyer that always filed first because his mother was the clerk of courts.
    Jul 4, 2015. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron Is Ripe For A Short Squeeze [View article]
    "scum suckers" is the right term.
    Jul 2, 2015. 11:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron Is Ripe For A Short Squeeze [View article]
    I find any SA article on GERN useful because it starts a new comment thread. All too often, an article is written, hundreds of comments are piled on, and in short order the list becomes too bulky to deal with.
    To do my part, I try not to post any unless I have something material to add.
    The deal with Janssen was a positive development, and I am still optimistic about the future success of Imetalstat. But, GERN is still a crap shoot, and like any gamble, there are people willing to bet either way. Until there is the next substantive development, the rest is just noise.
    My GERN shares carried an average cost of just a few cents over $2. A few weeks ago, I sold enough (about half) to put my net investment at $0. I'm now playing with free shares, and will ride them for the long haul.
    The die-hards among you will not like this strategy, but I'm happy.
    Only trouble now is that I've got to find somewhere else to invest that money in a seemingly over-valued market.

    Disclosure: Long GERN at about 1% of my portfolio.
    Jun 29, 2015. 06:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Still My Next Apple [View article]
    gsime - One of the best things I like about Bret is that he listens to the comments to his article. Telling you, the man is real.
    Jun 26, 2015. 02:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: Still My Next Apple [View article]
    Mr Jensen:
    Thanx for the update. It was one of your articles that first caused me to look at Gilead in early 2014. Share appreciation since then has pushed GILD to my top holding. I am also sitting on some Jan16 $110 calls that are well in-the-money.
    Many thanx for your continued efforts.
    Jun 25, 2015. 01:28 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of The Ozarks' Hidden $3 Billion Asset [View article]
    Good answer, Mr Rosenman.
    OZRK has a great long-term track record when it comes to the quality of their loans. Many companies grow quickly without maintaining financial discipline, but Ozark's management has done a great job of expanding the business while maintaining good profit margins.
    The shareholders benefit directly from the results, as the company has increased the dividend every quarter since 2010.
    Thanx for the article.

    Disclosure: Have owned OZRK for quite a few years. Because of share appreciation, it has grown into one of my top three holdings.
    Jun 21, 2015. 04:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is Not The Time For Greed [View article]
    About a year ago, you were saying much the same thing, and the September correction proved you to be correct.
    I've locked in some long-term gains, especially in those equities that seem overblown. Now sitting at 17% cash in my brokerage account.
    Thanx for the article, Mr Jensen.
    Jun 19, 2015. 12:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: Magellan Midstream shifts sights to trading oil for first time [View news story]
    Sorry, but my previous comment got cut out.
    Should have read "All it takes is a 'smart' trading manager to create a financial disaster."
    Jun 17, 2015. 11:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: Magellan Midstream shifts sights to trading oil for first time [View news story]
    Don't fall for it.
    Mid-stream companies are stable investments precisely because their revenues and profits work strictly off of throughput volume.
    They have always been in the oil markets when selling off their allowance oil, but trading is a totally different animal. The oil patch is littered with former companies that thought they could outsmart the rest of the traders: Metallgesellschaft, El Paso, Enron. All it takes is a 'smart' trading manager to create

    Disclosure: No position in MMP, and after this announcement, will stay away.
    Jun 17, 2015. 10:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Murphy USA, Inc. - A Resilient Business [View article]
    Mr Mohiuddin -
    Murphy USA is neither an oil producer nor a standard retail business. As a petrol retailer, it follows a different model than the one you used in your analysis before writing this article.
    Oil producers live and die by commodity prices and revenues.
    Conventional retailers enjoy a fairly stable cost of goods sold, and, for them, revenues can often indicate profitability.
    Petroleum retailers don't fall into either category. Their profits are derived from the difference between highly-volatile commodity prices and not-quite-as-volatile prices at the fuel pump. As a result, absolute revenues are not very important in evaluating their business. Much more important for MUSA are the changes of the underlying oil prices over time.
    During 2014 when crude oil prices were falling, MUSA generated record profits, and the shares were rewarded with a big jump.
    This year, prices stabilized and have risen somewhat. MUSA margins have been squeezed, and the recent results reflect that.
    Building new sites is helping their business grow at a gradual pace, but the fuel margin is all-controlling as far as their results are concerned. That, and fuel volume/site.

    Disclosure: I owned MUSA shares as a result of the spin-off from MUR, but sold them all early this year at just under $71. I now own a few $55 puts that I expect to cash during the second half of '15. (All it takes to make happen is a rise in crude oil prices during the next six months.)
    Jun 17, 2015. 10:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting The Investment Case On Progenics Pharmaceuticals [View article]
    Mr Jensen - thanx for the Jensen Rules, and I hope they get enough acceptance that the name sticks.
    Recently sold 30% of my holdings in GERN after a doubling of the share price, and was encouraged that it fit within your rules pretty well. Not quite working on the house money yet, but getting close, and the potential is huge.
    Still haven't sold any GILD shares yet, though...

    Long PGNX at $5.
    Jun 14, 2015. 01:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Murphy Oil - Why A Recovery Cannot Be Ruled Out [View article]
    Historically, Murphy Oil has always carried a strong balance sheet, and does today. Your article seems to imply that the debt-to-equity of 0.47 in 3Q14 was excessive. It wasn't.
    I think the moves we're seeing aren't aimed solely at improving the balance sheet. It looks like they are monetizing old assets and stockpiling capital for later investment in new growth opportunities.
    Will be interesting to see if MUR raises the dividend in August.

    Long MUR.
    May 15, 2015. 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Bank Of The Ozarks Really Scaling Up? [View article]
    PF:
    OZRK is one of my favorite investments, so I read your article with interest.
    On your first graph showing reductions in non-interest income, it is worth noting that in the early years, the bank took over some failing operations with government cooperation. These transactions were like bird nests on the ground and have not been repeated recently.
    Check the right-hand scale on your last graph. It appears to be off by an order of magnitude. If the bank really had $4 billion in assets per employee, then it would only have two employees.
    I think you meant to say "peeking" into the financial statements rather than "peaking."
    Apart from a couple of minor errors, I found the article useful.
    May 9, 2015. 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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