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Tadpoles_UK

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  • Murphy Oil - Why A Recovery Cannot Be Ruled Out [View article]
    Scott - I am in much the same boat as you, mate.
    Since Murphy sold/spun the downstream businesses, their results are a lot more sensitive to crude oil price.
    If oil and gas prices go up, so will MUR.
    Jul 28, 2015. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Drilling For Low-Risk Reward With Awilco [View article]
    Mr Henshaw - the Hess contract is still active until the end of the year. There was an option for Amerada to extend the contract at current day rates, but that option was declined.
    Jul 22, 2015. 01:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Drilling For Low-Risk Reward With Awilco [View article]
    Thanx for the article.
    One factor that helps mitigate the currency risk is that Awilco's contracts are $US-based. Revenues and dividends denominated in $'s lessens currency effects for US investors.
    I agree with your conclusion that Awilco is undervalued, but can easily envision the share price taking another hit if/when the company announces that they are going to idle a rig because of no work prospects next year.
    Jul 21, 2015. 04:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron's Much Anticipated Imetelstat Phase 2 Study Grows To 50 Locations And Begins Enrollment [View article]
    A wider geographic spread also makes it easier for the patients to participate. Remember that Irishtrader said that one of the big drawbacks to the earlier testing is the travel expense and distance from home.
    Any time I read "devil's advocate" I think of someone who has an opinion, but tries to couch it as not really his own....
    Jul 18, 2015. 05:49 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron Is Ripe For A Short Squeeze [View article]
    Here is a question for consideration by the group, and I apologize if this has already been raised and discussed in another thread:
    If Imetalstat proves to be the miracle drug that we all hope, which is the best approach for Geron to pursue?
    1) Use the payments from J&J to invest in new drug research.
    2) Use payments from J&J to purchase another company with a promising pipeline.
    3) Shrink down to a holding company with just a few employees and funnel the J&J payments to GERN shareholders in the form of dividends.

    I can imagine that the executives would opt for 1 or 2, but as a shareholder, I think my total return would be maximized by option 3.
    Thoughts?
    Jul 10, 2015. 01:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron Is Ripe For A Short Squeeze [View article]
    Hillary vs Trump - I will move to Costa Rica.
    That is, unless Turtle Island is affordable by then...
    Jul 9, 2015. 07:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of The Ozarks: An Outstanding, But Overpriced Regional Bank [View article]
    My last purchase of OZRK was in May, '14 at about $30 (split-adjusted.)
    At that time, the trailing P/E was in the mid-20's. Your suggested 16x or 18x would be a bargain, but the trouble is that would translate into a share price of $26-30. Not likely to be seen again any time soon.
    We might see 18x based on forward earnings, especially if there is a general market correction coming down the road.
    I'm overweight OZRK and no longer a buyer.
    Jul 9, 2015. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of The Ozarks' Third Hidden Asset [View article]
    Point taken.
    Thanx.
    Jul 9, 2015. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of The Ozarks' Third Hidden Asset [View article]
    Mr Rosenman:
    It is easy for me to believe that Ozark's conservative approach to valuations on acquired loans will yield benefits in the future. That's the way the bank is run.
    On the other hand, I don't give much credence to the value of fixed assets. The land and buildings under their branches can only be monetized by closing down the branches, or doing some kind of sale/lease-back arrangement. There are many privately-owned companies that count on nice profits from long-term real-estate appreciation. For publicly-traded businesses, by the time they start liquidating land value the shareholders rarely see any of that money. Sears is a prime example.
    Thanx for the article.

    Disclosure: long-term holder of OZRK and it is my second largest position.
    Jul 8, 2015. 08:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of The Ozarks: An Outstanding, But Overpriced Regional Bank [View article]
    Mr Brown - thanx for the article. I'd say that your conclusions are much the same as one could have drawn at several points over the past ten years. The P/E usually looks overblown, but anyone who has bought the dips over time is very happy today.
    Strong management, disciplined financial controls, and more growth opportunities mean that Gleason isn't finished yet.

    Disclosure: Long-term holder of OZRK as my second largest position.
    Jul 8, 2015. 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron Is Ripe For A Short Squeeze [View article]
    Turtle Island is starting to sound like Galt's Gulch, but apart from a bunch of rich retired investors, who is going to keep things running there?
    Jul 8, 2015. 12:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron Is Ripe For A Short Squeeze [View article]
    Slick W might be getting old, but I'd bet he still has a few women willing to make him smile.
    Jul 5, 2015. 04:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron Is Ripe For A Short Squeeze [View article]
    jimmyb - liked your comment about trying to get to the courthouse first. When I worked in south Louisiana, there was one class-action lawyer that always filed first because his mother was the clerk of courts.
    Jul 4, 2015. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron Is Ripe For A Short Squeeze [View article]
    "scum suckers" is the right term.
    Jul 2, 2015. 11:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Geron Is Ripe For A Short Squeeze [View article]
    I find any SA article on GERN useful because it starts a new comment thread. All too often, an article is written, hundreds of comments are piled on, and in short order the list becomes too bulky to deal with.
    To do my part, I try not to post any unless I have something material to add.
    The deal with Janssen was a positive development, and I am still optimistic about the future success of Imetalstat. But, GERN is still a crap shoot, and like any gamble, there are people willing to bet either way. Until there is the next substantive development, the rest is just noise.
    My GERN shares carried an average cost of just a few cents over $2. A few weeks ago, I sold enough (about half) to put my net investment at $0. I'm now playing with free shares, and will ride them for the long haul.
    The die-hards among you will not like this strategy, but I'm happy.
    Only trouble now is that I've got to find somewhere else to invest that money in a seemingly over-valued market.

    Disclosure: Long GERN at about 1% of my portfolio.
    Jun 29, 2015. 06:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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