FOMC Minutes: Everyone is clearly not on board. Fed officials are "evenly divided" between ending QE around mid-year or continuing until year's end. Several FOMC members thought it appropriate to slow or stop QE well before the end of 2013. [View news story]
The Fed was probably responsible for about 5% of total bond transactions in 2012.
There are a huge number of bond transactions every day in the secondary market and that is the correct measure of the Fed's impact.
FOMC Minutes: Everyone is clearly not on board. Fed officials are "evenly divided" between ending QE around mid-year or continuing until year's end. Several FOMC members thought it appropriate to slow or stop QE well before the end of 2013. [View news story]
Really? I recollect that interest rates did not skyrocket after QE1 or QE2.
FOMC Minutes: Everyone is clearly not on board. Fed officials are "evenly divided" between ending QE around mid-year or continuing until year's end. Several FOMC members thought it appropriate to slow or stop QE well before the end of 2013. [View news story]
Treasuries are the sovereign debt of choice. And Ben's QE has been successful - it prevented a Great Depression and we now have the US economy growing at 3% in the third quarter.
And no, there is no raging inflation except in your imagination.
The Great Recession Is Over: Time To Back Up The Truck [View article]
Sammy,
I live in Europe. It has made significant progress. As for your insinuation that the European banking system is insolvent. That is an exaggeration. And where the banking is insolvent - Spain and Greece - it is being recapitalized.
It doesn't defy logic because the decisive factor is the debt service burden, not debt to GDP ratio. Debt to GDP ratios are poor predictors of interest rates.
In the case of the US Fed interest payments are no greater than they were 4 years ago. In fact, if the interest payments received by the Federal Reserve and then returned to the Treasury are excluded, the debt service has actually fallen.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Decision Time? [View article]
Stanley,
What happened to the Christmas spirit? Most pundits do take extreme positions because it sells. Right now there is excess pessimism sells - it capture headlines. Yet the economic data has been showing steady improvement.
3 Lucrative Ex-Dividend Options Trades For This Week [View article]
Why not use longer dated in the money calls? My experience is that selling a December DITM call against a stock that provides a December dividend is a dead end - assignment is virtually assured.
That has not been my experience if I sell a March 2013 DITM call against a stock about to go ex-dividend in December 2012.
Have you studied the history of economic thought? There is nothing new in your so-called modern monetary theory. By the way, MMT is based largely on overlapping generation models. My impression is that you are reinventing the wheel and don't even know it.
Will Patience Pay Off For Long Volatility Investors? [View article]
Since when are two home runs separated by twenty years the signature of a great investor? The author certainly knows that Taleb's track record is not statistically significant.
The Simple Reason American Oil Production Growth Will Slow Significantly [View article]
You got the math right. Eventually one had to run just to remain in place. It surprises me to no end how many investors cannot get their heads around the simple that rapid erosion in the production base means that growth must sharply decline.
Rail Traffic Is Slowing With The Economy [View article]
Cullen,
You are fear mongering again. Look at the graph of weekly shipments. After a precipitous decline to misfortunes of call, it stabilizes. The economy's underlying growth trend is stable. Sandy was a one time event. It has no long term impact.
The Time To Short U.S. Bonds Is Now [View article]
A bad article. Interest rates do not "follow" mortgage rates. Interest rates are determined by inflation expectations and the Fed Funds rate as well as the preference for risk versus safety.
Yes, interest rates will rise following a fiscal agreement, but not for the reasons outlined in your paper. A satisfactory solution to the fiscal cliff reduces risk and that will cause interest rates to fall, particularly at the long end of maturities.
FOMC Minutes: Everyone is clearly not on board. Fed officials are "evenly divided" between ending QE around mid-year or continuing until year's end. Several FOMC members thought it appropriate to slow or stop QE well before the end of 2013. [View news story]
There are a huge number of bond transactions every day in the secondary market and that is the correct measure of the Fed's impact.
FOMC Minutes: Everyone is clearly not on board. Fed officials are "evenly divided" between ending QE around mid-year or continuing until year's end. Several FOMC members thought it appropriate to slow or stop QE well before the end of 2013. [View news story]
FOMC Minutes: Everyone is clearly not on board. Fed officials are "evenly divided" between ending QE around mid-year or continuing until year's end. Several FOMC members thought it appropriate to slow or stop QE well before the end of 2013. [View news story]
And no, there is no raging inflation except in your imagination.
The Great Recession Is Over: Time To Back Up The Truck [View article]
I live in Europe. It has made significant progress. As for your insinuation that the European banking system is insolvent. That is an exaggeration. And where the banking is insolvent - Spain and Greece - it is being recapitalized.
Let's stick to facts, not du jour pessimism.
2013 Outlook: Lex Parsimoniae [View article]
In the case of the US Fed interest payments are no greater than they were 4 years ago. In fact, if the interest payments received by the Federal Reserve and then returned to the Treasury are excluded, the debt service has actually fallen.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Decision Time? [View article]
What happened to the Christmas spirit? Most pundits do take extreme positions because it sells. Right now there is excess pessimism sells - it capture headlines. Yet the economic data has been showing steady improvement.
Revamping Your Bond Portfolio With A Simple Momentum Strategy [View article]
3 Lucrative Ex-Dividend Options Trades For This Week [View article]
That has not been my experience if I sell a March 2013 DITM call against a stock about to go ex-dividend in December 2012.
Utilize Dividend Collars With Mortgage REITs [View article]
The State Of Modern Macro [View article]
Have you studied the history of economic thought? There is nothing new in your so-called modern monetary theory. By the way, MMT is based largely on overlapping generation models. My impression is that you are reinventing the wheel and don't even know it.
Will Patience Pay Off For Long Volatility Investors? [View article]
The Simple Reason American Oil Production Growth Will Slow Significantly [View article]
SPY And ECRI's Weekly Leading Index Up Again; ECRI Discusses Its Recession Call [View article]
A recession mid-year? Second quarter GDP was 1.3% annualized. Third quarter GDP was 2.8% annualized.
???
Rail Traffic Is Slowing With The Economy [View article]
You are fear mongering again. Look at the graph of weekly shipments. After a precipitous decline to misfortunes of call, it stabilizes. The economy's underlying growth trend is stable. Sandy was a one time event. It has no long term impact.
The Time To Short U.S. Bonds Is Now [View article]
Yes, interest rates will rise following a fiscal agreement, but not for the reasons outlined in your paper. A satisfactory solution to the fiscal cliff reduces risk and that will cause interest rates to fall, particularly at the long end of maturities.